NFL Wild Card Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Although I have to apologize for what has been a very volatile season for my NFL Best Bets, a 6-3 ATS finish in Week 18 was a good way to wrap it up. In all, my regular season record finished at 81-78-2 ATS (50.9%), well below the standard I set in each of the last two years, but at least I was able to bring it back over .500 after Weeks 8 and 9 nearly crushed the campaign. That said, the playoffs are here, and in the 2024 postseason, I was 11-7, wrapping it up with a line/total sweep in the Super Bowl. Hopefully, I can finish similarly strong this season. Let’s kick off the 2025 NFL playoffs with a look at the wild card games…

 

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Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Houston is back in its customary slot of 4:30 p.m. ET wild card playoff host. Will the familiarity be a big factor in the Texans’ chances of success against the Chargers? Possibly, but I think there are much bigger things than that to consider. I actually like what we saw out of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team last week in winning at Tennessee, and that was one of my Best Bets for Week 18. They did exactly what I thought they needed to do to re-establish positive momentum for the playoffs. 

The Chargers obviously had a great first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, especially ATS, where they were 12-4-1, but there is some concern about the 2-5 record versus playoff teams, with both wins over Denver. There is also a major concern for me in that this is the most public bet game of the week at DraftKings, with 90% of the handle on LA. Let’s not forget, home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS run heading into the 2025 postseason, and there have been 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%). 

Many experts have expressed concern about the Texans’ ability to score on the Chargers on Saturday, but home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) since 2009. I also worry that Harbaugh will go back to the strangling conservative play his team demonstrated early in 2024, looking to run the ball, avoid turnovers, and play solid defense. It should be noted that road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 2-17 SU & 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 2004. 

Getting back to the Saturday afternoon kickoff and playoff familiarity, did you know that teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 13-28 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) over the last 12 seasons and 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) since 2004. Plus, in the last 37 Saturday WC games, home teams are 24-13 SU and 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%). With #4 seeds on a 22-14 SU and 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) run over the last 18 wild card seasons, I like Houston’s chances to not only cover but also go for the win.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I got Houston +3 in the wild card opener

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, 8:00 p.m.

Can the enormity of the rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens ignite the fire in a Pittsburgh team that has hit the skids over the last month? To me, that is the big question. We know this series has a history of underdog dominance, and head coach Mike Tomlin’s teams always seem to do well in the underdog role and against the league’s elite. That last point is interesting if you ask me because my latest power ratings have Baltimore as the NFL’s top team, and my PR Line shows that head coach John Harbaugh’s team should be a -10.4-point favorite. 

The Ravens come off a huge blowout win over Cleveland that clinched the AFC North title. It should be noted that QB Lamar Jackson is 30-9 SU and 25-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018. 

My biggest concern for Pittsburgh is the ability to score enough to stay in this game. They have the worst offensive scoring stats of any team in the playoffs, and historically, road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-26 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2009. Their conservative, protect-the-ball strategy can also be a detriment at this time of year, as road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 2-17 SU & 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 2004. 

We know from my wild card trends article that the magic point total for road teams is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wild card round have lost 10 straight games outright and are 6-45 SU and 7-44 ATS (13.7%) since 2002. After scoring just 14.3 PPG during this current four-game skid, the chances of Tomlin’s team hitting 20 are not great.

From a line perspective, home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher) in the wild card round are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2005. If you consider lines of 9.5 points or more, wild card-favored hosts this large have now won 15 straight games outright while going 14-1 ATS (93.3%)! The Ravens know they are running out of chances. I don’t see them wasting this season’s postseason hopes against their fiercest but struggling rival.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll lay the 9.5 points with Baltimore

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

It seems to me that Buffalo and Baltimore are in similar positions heading into the 2025 playoffs. They are both extremely hungry, anxious to get over their recent postseason disappointments and knowing that whatever happens in the next two weeks, nemesis Kansas City will probably be waiting for them should they make it to the AFC title contest. Is that going to prove to be too much pressure on either the Ravens or Bills in the wild card round? I don’t think so, as recent playoff failures assure that neither will overlook these first games. 

Denver is a great story, rallying behind rookie QB Bo Nix to claim a playoff spot. However, quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 12-23 SU and 14-21 ATS (40%) since 2014 and 27-47 ATS (36.5%) since 2003. In addition, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-123 SU and 56-83-4 ATS (40.3%). 

There is a concern about head coach Sean Payton’s ability to compete against the league’s elite teams, as before last week’s 38-0 victory against the backups that wore Chiefs jerseys, they were just 1-5 this season against playoff teams, with the only win over the Bucs in Week 3. Speaking of that shutout, teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-19 SU and 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 34 games following up that extremely good defensive performance. 

Denver was very good defensively this season but did allow 30 and 41 points to the two best offenses they faced in 2024 (Cincinnati and Baltimore). Plus, Buffalo is 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS vs. elite defenses, allowing <19 PPG since 2018. If you recall last year, the Bills had their early Sunday wild card contest postponed to Monday. Regardless, they easily handled Pittsburgh. 

Denver hasn’t played a playoff game since 2016. Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 13-28 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) over the last 12 seasons and 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) since 2004. Remember that home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher) in the wild card round are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2005. Road teams averaged just 15.1 PPG in those contests. Buffalo is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight versus Denver in head-to-head play.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll lay the -8.5 points with Buffalo

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

It seems that the last two weeks have seen anyone and everyone fall off the Green Bay bandwagon. Prior to that, the Packers were red-hot, winners of nine of 11 games while hitting the 30-point seven times during the stretch. Now, after a 2-point loss at 14-3 Minnesota, and a season finale defeat to Chicago that was played mostly without the offensive stars, very few people are giving this team a chance at playoff success. 

Speaking of that Bears loss, teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) record since 2015. Don’t forget, head coach Matt LaFleur’s team was the #7 seed a year ago and mauled Dallas before nearly upsetting San Francisco. This team also boasts most of the traits that top recent teams do, as seen in my shared traits article from earlier this week. 

One of the most important factors in recent playoff success is yards per pass attempt offensively, and GB is one of five teams averaging 8.0 or more. Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004. The Packers also have another trait that typically bodes well in the postseason: forcing turnovers. Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-30-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2002. 

This line is set up right in head coach LaFleur’s wheelhouse, as he is 13-6 SU and 15-3-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019. Underdogs are also on a run of 17-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in the last 26 NFC Wild Card games, and Sunday wild card NFC road teams have been terrific, going 15-10 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the last 25.

I mentioned the Packers’ hot scoring stretch earlier. Did you know they reached the 20-point mark in all but two games this season? As such, it should be noted that road teams reaching that 20-point total in this round are on a 37-22 SU and 44-13-2 ATS (77.2%) run. The Packers scored 29 earlier on Philly. I expect them to score once again and thus compete well.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll take the + 4.5 points with Green Bay

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Doesn’t it feel like if one team could make a surprise run in the NFC playoffs, it might be Washington and their dangerous young QB Jayden Daniels? It feels very similar to last year’s situation with the Packers. The Commanders are a team that will never be out of a game because of Daniels’ unique abilities. 

Apparently, a lot of people are seeing things this way, as the majority of the handle and bets at DraftKings are actually on head coach Dan Quinn’s team as the road dog here. When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. 

I mentioned the similarities to last year’s GB team. Washington’s ability to make big plays through the air is noteworthy, as road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004. Of course, Daniels can also run it as part of a nice balanced offense attack. 

Along those lines, teams who averaged more rushing yards per game than their opponent are 18-10 SU and ATS (64.3%) since 2020 in the wild card round, including 11-4 ATS (73.3%) as dogs. This is also a revenge spot for the Commanders, having lost 37-20 way back in Week 1 at Tampa.  Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 19-8-1 SU and 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in their last 28 revenge tries. 

This #3-#6 matchup has had a history of upsets, with the road teams on a 14-8 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) surge in the series. Furthermore, #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite are just 2-14 SU and ATS (12.5%) since 2004, scoring just 17.2 PPG in the process. I think Quinn, Daniels & Co. have a nice shot at an upset.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll back Washington +3 at Tampa Bay  

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams

Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Assuming this game winds up being played in LA with the threat of the wildfires moving it as of Thursday, I have to wonder why bettors at DraftKings have not flocked (only 56% of handle) to the Vikings as road favorites. Typically, they would love a team like that in this spot. However, the Circa betting splits tell an entirely different story, with 85 % of the handle there backing head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team. In my short experience with looking at these splits, and I will do a deep dive at some point, I feel like the sharper analysis seems to be on the Circa side of things. 

I have shared the stats all this week about how home dogs have been quite successful in the playoffs in recent years, but I personally can’t get over the evidence presented in my NFL Super Bowl teams’ shared traits piece from earlier this week. The Rams had just six of 27 shared traits with past Super Bowl teams. It’s the lowest total I’ve seen since I started doing the piece about five years ago, and it makes them the least likely team to have a playoff run of any sort. The Vikings had 22 marks, making this what could be considered a “shared traits mismatch.” 

Let’s look at some of the simple trends in play for this week. First, LA Rams head coach Sean McVay is 7-6 SU but 3-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022. Second, QB Matthew Stafford is 9-29 SU and 13-24 ATS as a home underdog since 2011. One of the wins, of course, was against the Vikings earlier this season. However, teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 45-15 SU and 38-22 ATS (63.3%) in the rematch contest. 

I have a feeling that a lot of the DraftKings bettors are shying away from the Vikings because of what happened with QB Sam Darnold last week. That was one game. He has had a tremendous season, and his team averages 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in the NFL playoffs, going 28-32 SU but 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004. At the same time, the Rams’ pass defense is the worst among the playoff teams. Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 6-15-1 (28.6%) ATS since 2012.

Minnesota does another thing that usually bodes well for playoff success: force turnovers. Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-30-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2002. Over the total is 9-1 in the Vikings-Rams series since 1992, when Minnesota is on the road. I have the feeling that O’Connell’s offense is going to be able to rebound here against the weak Rams’ pass defense, and it’s going to be up to Stafford to keep his team in the game. He will…for much of it.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Let’s go Minnesota -1.5 and Over 47.5 for the MNF wild card tilt

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