NFL Wild Card Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Wild Card predictions:

 

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Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

The Chargers take to the road for their third consecutive road game. Dating back to 2005, teams in this situation in the playoffs are just 11-27 straight up for a mark of 29%.

While the Chargers did soar over the win total of 8.5 with 11 victories, eight of those 11 victories were against below .500 teams (8-1), and only three (3-5) were against above .500 teams. Two of those wins came against the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s 7 seed. The Bolts have the lowest strength of victory of all 14 playoff teams.

Houston, despite winning another AFC South division title, has looked a bit off all year. C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump, largely due to season-ending injuries at receiver, specifically Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. The offensive line has also allowed a lot of pressure, and Stroud was sacked 52 times, second-most in the league this season.

On the other side, Justin Herbert was sacked 41 times (7th most) and the Chargers OL could have its hands full with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter drawing so much focus off the edge and Tim Settle getting pressure up the middle.

With Houston being ranked 31st out of 32 in early down success rate but also being ranked second defensively in run-stop win rate, expect both these teams to be behind the chains a fair amount in this one.

The Chargers are a bit overvalued, and while the highly-praised Jim Harbaugh coaching staff has been good, this is still the first year of the operation and Houston’s playoff experience could win out in the end.

NFL Wild Card Best Bets: Houston Texans +3 (-115), Under 42.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens rated 30th in Pass Defense EPA. Since Week 11, they are # 1 in that category, plus tops in yards per play, EPA/play, points per game, yards per game, etc., 

Baltimore put Marlon Humphrey in the slot and Kyle Hamilton at deep safety. The addition of former Ravems, Patriots, Titans, and Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees as senior advisor to new DC Zach Orr has been highly beneficial, as the Ravens have been the league’s best defense over the last eight weeks of the season.

Now the Ravens defense gets a Steelers offense that ranked 30th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate over the last five weeks of the season. This group only mustered 17 points and 193 yards in Week 18 against a Bengals defense that was one of the league’s worst and put its respected DC Lou Anarumo at least temporarily out of work.

The Steelers also continue to run the ball (4th in rushing attempts) despite the fact that they rank 25th in yards per carry.

Pittsburgh is also ranked eighth in defense DVOA.

While the Week 16 matchup between these two teams went over the total of 44.5, it was a Humphrey pick-six of Russell Wilson that eventually put it over in the fourth quarter. Zay Flowers led the Ravens in that game with 100 yards on five catches and he will miss this one with a knee injury. Rashod Bateman was the only other receiver to catch a pass. Expect the Ravens to be run-heavy and play the passing game in a bit of a phone booth using TE Mark Andrews and RB Justice Hill, who is back from a concussion.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Under 44

BEST OF THE REST
Eagles +3 1H at Packers
Rams +8.5/Texans +9 (6-point teaser)

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