As I indicated in my first VSiN article this week titled NFL Playoff Trends and Systems, I’ve decided to alter my approach of sharing all the data and analysis I’ve uncovered over the years for the postseason by breaking it up a bit into more focused pieces. As promised, I will still be offering the round-by-round trend and system analysis. The first in that series deals with the Wild Card round and the six games we have upcoming this weekend.

Once again, we have 14 teams still alive in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Wild Card round will eliminate six of them. As usual, there are some favorites in the betting markets, but in both conferences, it seems like a two/three horse race to make it to Las Vegas in February. Theoretically, the advantages would go to Detroit in the NFC and Kansas City in the AFC, as those two teams claimed the all-important #1 seeds, and will be the only teams that need not worry about what transpires this weekend. Their playoff pushes begin next weekend. However, considering that 2023 was the only time since 2018 that both #1’s reached the title game, there is obviously a lot to sort out over the next few weeks.

 

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As with any reoccurring sporting event, the NFL playoffs have gone through various trend patterns over the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart teams, and others being relatively predictable, with favorites taking care of business. Because of this ever-changing nature, it can be difficult for bettors to thrive when using past playoff results as a guide. In past eras, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team’s body of work, but there are indeed some very important statistical traits that lead teams to playoff success. 

How tough can this playoff-betting exercise be if you just bet blindly on recent trends? Well, consider that all road teams were on a 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS run in the Wild Card round heading into the 2022 games. As luck would have it, the hosts then enjoyed their best Wild Card weekend in five years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. Road teams would get their revenge in 2023 however, going 4-2 ATS, only for the home teams of a year ago to bounce back with a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark. If you prefer betting totals, you may want to consider that Under was 16-8 in the prior five years to 2023, only to see Over hit in five of six games, then split in 2024. Simply put, blindly playing anything usually doesn’t have lasting success.

My handicapping methods have changed throughout these years as well, as it seems that lately, how a team is playing recently seems to have taken on more and more importance. That doesn’t mean it’s an end-all factor, but it is one area which I give significant consideration. That line of thinking would bode well for Baltimore, the Chargers, and Washington for this weekend, as those are the only NFL teams playing in the Wild Card round that are riding winning streaks of three games or more currently. If you prefer my recent ratings to describe which teams are currently playing best, the top eight are all playoff bound teams (BAL, DET, LAC, PHI, DEN, TB, GB, LAR).

For those wondering, only one Wild Card team over the last 11 seasons has played in (and won) the Super Bowl game, and that team, of course, was Tampa Bay of three years ago, as the Bucs started their run on this weekend as a #5 seed. Most experts would point to Minnesota (+1600), Green Bay (+1800), or the Chargers (+2800) as the teams capable of emerging from a Wild Card spot this season, but at 16-1 odds or worse to win the title, those teams are still clear long shots.

It is my annual ritual at this time of year to dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we can uncover any tips of the trade that might help us better handicap this weekend’s Wild Card games. I try to look at it all: home/road scenarios, dogs/favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what I’ve found, and then see if you can’t apply any of the findings to the upcoming weekend action. I will be doing the exact same thing for each of the rounds as we move towards Super Bowl LVIII next month.

·  The outright winner owns a point spread record of 63-10-1 ATS (86.3%) in the last 74 Wild Card playoff games! Win-no covers are somewhat rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the teams you’re betting on winning the game, you’re better off not trying to sneak a cover in. It should be noted, however, that since the expansion of the Wild Card playoffs in 2021, the outright winner in games with lines of 7 points or more have gone just 6-4 ATS.

·  Road teams seem to have regained the edge in this round in recent years, particularly on point spreads, going 18-18 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) over the last seven seasons. However, they are just 7-11 ATS over the last three seasons.

·  Underdogs are on a run of 17-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in the last 26 NFC Wild Card games, with Green Bay, Washington, and the Rams lining up in that role this weekend.

·  Wild Card road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 20 since 2008. Those teams are 12-8 SU but 8-11-1 ATS (44.4%).  For 2025, we could see two, with the Chargers (-3) and Vikings (pick ’em) best positioned to be such.

·  Home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher) in the Wild Card round are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2005, with Buffalo extending that trend with a 31-17 win over Pittsburgh last year. Road teams averaged just 15.1 PPG in those contests. Baltimore and the Bills line up as heavy favorites for this weekend.

·  If you consider lines of 9.5 points or more, Wild Card favored hosts this large have now won 15 straight games outright while going 14-1 ATS (93.3%)! The average score of the 14 games has been 31.3-15.8. The lone ATS loss occurred in 2023, when Buffalo (-15) survived Miami 34-31. The Ravens are listed as 10-point favorites at home over Pittsburgh for 2025.

·  There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the Wild Card home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the last 37 Saturday games, home teams are 24-13 SU and 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%). In that same span, home teams are 18-21 SU and 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) on Sundays. If you’re curious, in the four prior Monday night games, hosts are 3-1 SU and ATS since that tradition began in 2022. If you recall, the 2024 games between Buffalo and Pittsburgh was postponed from Sunday to Monday due to weather.

·  Including the lone road outright win last year, Sunday NFC road teams have been terrific, going 15-10 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the last 25. Under the total is also 18-7 (72%) in those games.  The Packers-Eagles and Commanders-Buccaneers games will test both of these angles.

·  In the 18 Wild Card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) edge (8-10 SU), however, hosts are on a four-game outright winning streak. The Ravens-Steelers tilt is the lone WC divisional contest for 2025.

·  #4 seeds are on a 22-14 SU and 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) run over the last 18 Wild Card seasons, perhaps underrated in the eyes of the experts. This year’s #4 seeds are Houston in the AFC and the Rams in the NFC.

·  Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) over the last 19 seasons. This includes Houston’s 45-14 upset win over Cleveland last year. Houston is the #4 in the AFC again for 2025.

·  Dating back to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a year ago, that option on totals in the #3-#6 matchup is 18-5-1 (78.3%). For the record, the road teams are on a 14-8 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) surge in the series as well. The #3-#6 matchups for 2025 are Ravens-Steelers and Washington-Tampa Bay.

·  #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite are just 2-14 SU and ATS (12.5%) since 2004, scoring just 17.2 PPG in the process. However, Detroit did snap a 13-game SU losing skid on this trend last year without covering the point spread. Tampa Bay is a 3-point favorite as of press time over the Commanders.

·  In the four expanded playoff seasons, we’ve only seen the #7 seed win outright once, that being last year in Green Bay’s upset of Dallas. Overall, the #2 seeds are 7-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the matchup. The last four games involving the #2’s went Over the total. This year’s #2 seeds are Philadelphia (vs. Green Bay ironically) and Buffalo (vs. Denver).

·  Over has held the edge on totals since the playoff expansion four years ago, going 14-10 (58.3%).

·  The common pattern in the last 13 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 23-8-2 (74.2%)! Home teams scored just 16.3 PPG in those road wins.

·  Of the last 43 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 27-15-1 (64.3%). However, six of the eight went Over in the last two years. At last check, the four games on Sunday and Monday all show totals of at least 45.5.

·  Eight of the last 11 Wild Card games with closing totals of 40 or below went Over the total, including Buffalo-Pittsburgh last season.

·  Of the last 39 Sunday Wild Card games, 26 have gone Under the total (66.7%). Of the last 35 Saturday games, Over the total is 19-15-1 (55.9%). The prior MNF playoff contests went 3-1 Under the total (75%).

·  In Wild Card games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 20-10-1 (66.7%). The Chargers-Texans, Commanders-Buccaneers, and Vikings-Rams games all fit this bill as of Wednesday.

·  The last five Wild Card games not expected to be as competitive, or those with lines of -7 or higher, have gone Over. They are 8-2 Over in the last 10 as well. Consider the Steelers-Ravens and Broncos-Bills game totals if you find merit in this angle.

Stats Generated in Wild Card Playoff Games

·  Only seven home teams that have hit the 21-point mark have lost in the last 23 years of Wild Card playoff action, going 54-7 SU and 44-16-1 ATS (73.3%). Last year, there was a loss on this angle, with Dallas falling at home 48-32 to the Packers. The five home teams for this weekend other than Houston are all expected to score 21 or more points according to the odds/total combination.

·  Only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a Wild Card playoff game have won in the last 23 years, going 3-36 SU and 3-35-1 ATS (7.9%)! The last time it happened was in 2018, a 10-3 decision with Buffalo edging Jacksonville. The Texans are only expected to score 19.5 points on Saturday, according to the odds/total combination.

·  The magic point total for road teams is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the Wild Card round have lost 10 straight games outright and are 6-45 SU and 7-44 ATS (13.7%) since 2002. Road teams reaching that 20-point total were 37-22 SU and 44-13-2 ATS (77.2%) in that same span, including 2-0 ATS last year.

·  Teams that gain more first downs in the game are 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%) in the last 13 Wild Card playoff seasons

·  Teams that win the time of possession battle are on a 16-7 SU and ATS (69.6%) run in the Wild Card playoffs.

·  Wild Card playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS (75%) over the last five seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a Wild Card playoff game are just 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24. If you consider the foundation behind this, getting big plays on the ground isn’t as important as controlling the line of scrimmage or piling up rushing yards to put teams away late.

·  Putting up big passing numbers in Wild Card playoff games has not been as big a part of a recipe of success the last seven seasons, since those teams are only 18-18 SU and 21-15 ATS (62.3%) in that time. Teams often amass big passing numbers in catch-up mode.

·  Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a Wild Card playoff game are 50-10 SU and 48-11-1 ATS (75.6%) since 2012. All but one of the 24 outright winners from the last four year’s Wild Card rounds threw for more passing yards per attempt. This is obviously a huge stat to try and project pregame.

·  The YPA stat has even proven slightly more valuable than turnovers in Wild Card playoff games, as teams committing fewer turnovers are 24-8 SU and ATS (75.8%) since 2015. In the rest of the games during that span, the turnover differential was even.

Summarizing these in-game stats findings, the ability to get big plays through the passing game is the most important ingredient. If you’re wondering which teams averaged more yards per pass attempt in this weekend’s matchups, they are the Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. However, defensively, the edges in this key stat go to Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota. Also, when handicapping these contests, try to formulate each team’s expected scoring output. Home teams reaching 21 points is crucial, and the same with road teams getting to 20. Which teams for this weekend can for sure do that?

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trend

·  If the last seven Wild Card playoff seasons have proven anything, it’s that regular season records do not matter all that much when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just 16-14 SU and 10-20-1 ATS (33.3%) in that span. In six matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark.

·  For 2025, three hosts won fewer games than their opponent, the Texans, Buccaneers, and Rams. Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their Wild Card opponents are on a 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS (60%) run.

·  Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) run in the Wild Card playoffs. Strangely, hosts that won 12 or more games have a far worse record at 10-9 SU and 5-14 ATS (42.9%) since 2015, including five straight ATS setbacks. Note that the Bills, Ravens, and Eagles all won at least 12 games, while no hosts for this weekend won fewer than 10 games.

·  Keep in mind that the schedule expanded to 17 games a few years ago, but still, teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play on the road in the Wild Card round lost all three games a year ago both SU and ATS and are just 13-18 SU and 14-16-1 ATS (46.7%) since 2008. Alternatively, Wild Card visitors that won nine games or less in the regular season again boast a superior point spread record of 11-15 SU but 16-9-1 ATS (64%) since 2002. The 11+ win road teams for this weekend are the Chargers, Green Bay, Washington, and Minnesota. There were no playoff teams that won fewer than 10 games this year.

·  There have been 12 Wild Card games since 2006 that have matched pairs of teams that each won at least 11 games in the regular season. In those games, road teams are 5-7 SU but boast an impressive 8-4 ATS (66.7%) mark. The Green Bay-Philadelphia matchup is the only one to qualify for 2025.

·  Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have gone just 21-15 SU and 15-21 ATS (44.3%) in the last seven years. Including 10-19 ATS (34.5%) when favored. Note that all five current favorites outscored their opponent in the regular season.

·  Rushing statistics have meant something when it comes to Wild Card playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 18-10 SU and ATS (64.3%) since 2020, including 11-4 ATS (73.3%) as dogs. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 17-11 SU and ATS (60.7%) in that span. For those wondering, the only underdogs for this weekend that averaged more RYPG are Houston and Washington.

·  Wild Card teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are 21-5 SU but only 16-20 ATS (44.4%) since 2018. More efficient passing yards per attempt have gotten hot in the last six Wild Card seasons, going 22-10 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%). The highlight of this group is a 9-2 road underdog record. I noted these before, but a reminder that the teams with edges in this category in 2025 are Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. The Packers are the only road dog of the group.

·  Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2021, teams that generated more yardage overall offensively have struggled in the Wild Card round, going 15-9 SU but 10-14 ATS (41.7%). When considering yards per play, teams with better offenses in this regard are on a 19-11 ATS (63.3%) surge currently, and road underdogs with this edge are on a 16-4-1 ATS (80%) surge since 2003. Green Bay holds a 0.5 YPP edge over Philadelphia for Sunday’s matchup.

·  Offensive yards per point hasn’t proven to be as effective of an offensive statistical indicator as other categories, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only 22-18 SU and 16-24 ATS (40%) in the Wild Card playoffs dating back to 2017. Home favorites with the edges in this are just 9-16 ATS (36%) in that span. Three home favorites qualify for this weekend: Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia.

·  Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are 12-12 ATS (50%) since 2021 in Wild Card playoff games, offering little advantage for handicappers.

·  Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are 18-6 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in the last four expanded Wild Card playoff seasons, something to watch for this weekend. The teams with edges in this category are LA Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on an extended 42-27 SU and 42-26-1 ATS (61.8%) run in Wild Card playoff action, including 19-5 ATS (79.2%) the last four seasons since playoff expansion. The teams with the better-scoring defenses for this weekend are the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) over the last four seasons in the Wild Card round. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit worse at the betting window at 15-9 ATS (62.5%). This is an angle worth considering, since good rushing defenses can force opposing offenses to become one-dimensional. For 2025, the teams with edges in both stats are Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Wild Card teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 14-14 SU and ATS (50%) over the last five seasons in this playoff round. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who’ve held the edge in this category are just 14-20 ATS (41.2%) in the last 34 tries. If you recall, this was a far more influential offensive statistic.

·  Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have gone just 14-18 SU and 15-17 ATS (46.9%) in the Wild Card round since ’19. However, those Wild Card teams that held an edge in overall yards allowed per play have been far more successful at 14-9 SU and 16-7 ATS (53.1%) since playoff expansion in 2021. For those curious, for this weekend, the teams with edges in defensive YPP are Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota.

·  Wild Card teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those that allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their Wild Card playoff games at a 15-9 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) rate over the last four seasons. 2025 edges belong to the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. The Chargers, Broncos, and Vikings were the top three rated teams in the NFL.

·  Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 14-22 ATS (38.9%) skid since 2017 in Wild Card playoff games.

·  Stopping third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season has also proven to be an irrelevant statistic in the Wild Card playoffs, as teams with edges in this are just 12-20 ATS dating back to 2019.

Combination Systems Using Offensive YPA, Defensive PPG, and Defensive RYPG

·  Using our most impactful stat angles from above, teams that threw for more yards per passing attempt and allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 10-1 SU and ATS (90.9%) run in Wild Card playoff action. The 2025 teams with edges in both are the Chargers, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Similarly, teams that threw for more yards per passing attempt and allowed fewer rushing yards per game during the regular season are on a 12-4 SU and ATS (75%) run in Wild Card playoff action. The 2025 teams with edges in both are Baltimore, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

Summary

Although it takes up a lot of space in the article, it’s obvious that many of the analyzed statistics don’t mean as much as others; however, offensive pass efficiency, scoring defense, and rushing defense edges are worth noting. That said, the line range trends, the seed angles, and all of the other trends and systems I noted in the overall playoff article earlier this week must be given strong consideration when finalizing your plays. It should be another exciting Wild Card weekend to bet the games, regardless of what happens. Good luck, and check back next week for the divisional round information.

VIEW WILD CARD HISTORICAL RESULT CHART HERE

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