Rams vs. Lions Wild-Card Sunday odds and predictions
There are a lot of really fun storylines for the Wild-Card Weekend, but Matthew Stafford vs. the Lions and Jared Goff vs. the Rams might top them all. This will be the first Lions home playoff game since 1994 and just the fourth playoff game overall since 2000. Stafford played 165 games for the team and is the all-time leading passer by nearly 30,000 yards. But, he’ll play his first postseason game at Ford Field as the enemy.
Offensive fireworks are in the forecast for this one, as Rams vs. Lions has the highest total on the board. Detroit is favored by a field goal across the market after some early-week 3.5s disappeared for the primetime game on Sunday.
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How To Watch Rams vs. Lions
Date: Sunday, January 14
Time: 8 pm ET
Channel: NBC
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5)
Home-field advantage has been dwindling in the NFL for a while, but you may not find a better crowd in the Wild-Card Weekend than this one. As mentioned, the Lions are playing their first home playoff game in 30 years and they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. This is their first trip to the postseason since the 2016 season with a loss six days after the New Year against the Seahawks.
The Rams, of course, won a Super Bowl with Stafford in his first season with the team. That makes for a lot of intrigue heading into this game, but once the game begins, it will be about Stafford against the Lions secondary and Goff against the Rams secondary. Fortunately for Goff, this game is inside, so he won’t have to deal with the elements on what will be a chilly night in the Motor City.
Many have labeled the Rams a “team that nobody wants to play” and that may very well be true. Kyren Williams did not play in Week 18, but from his Week 12 return through Week 17, the Rams were fourth in EPA/play on offense. With two bona fide WR1s in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the Rams were firing on all cylinders and appear well-positioned to carry over that success against a Lions unit that finished 23rd in scoring defense and finished 27th in passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns.
The Lions were stout against the run throughout the season and finished third in yards per carry allowed, so we’ll see if Williams can find some holes, but Stafford also stands to be the benefactor of playing indoors. After the bye week, the Rams only lost one of their eight games and that was an overtime defeat on the road at the Ravens on a walk-off punt return touchdown that featured some missed flags.
This game could come down to red-zone success. The Rams ranked fourth in TD% and the Lions ranked third, but the Lions were also 29th in TD% on defense and the Rams were 15th. Unfortunately for the Lions, they could be without Sam LaPorta, who tied for the team lead in receiving tuddies with 10 and also ranked first in red-zone receiving TDs among tight ends with seven. Only Courtland Sutton had more red-zone TDs with eight.
LaPorta is said to be improving and the Lions do play late on Sunday, but based on how the injury looked, he’s not going to be anywhere near 100% if he plays. To me, that’s a huge blow to the Lions, who look like they’re going to need to win a high-scoring game.
Pick: Rams +3
Rams vs. Lions player props
The Lions finished the regular season second in Rush EPA on defense and fifth in Rushing Success Rate against. As I mentioned above, they were third in yards per carry allowed and second in total rushing yards allowed. While I do like the Rams here, I like their ability to move the ball through the air on a Lions team that ranked 27th in Dropback EPA and Dropback Success Rate against.
To me, that means Williams will be less effective this week than we’ve seen him in previous weeks. I also think that Sean McVay will realize the mismatch his QB and receivers have against this Lions defense and let this be the Stafford Show. If the Rams are ahead late, expect Williams to be running into flooded boxes with an elite rush defense. I do think this prop line could go up throughout the week, so you might have the chance to wait and get a better number.
Pick: Kyren Williams Under 83.5 Rushing Yards
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Rams vs. Lions!
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