Odds on Tom Brady’s next team favor Buccaneers or Raiders

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Where will the GOAT play in 2023?

A garbage-time touchdown prevented Tom Brady from the worst playoff loss of his career when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 31-14 to the Dallas Cowboys during Wild Card Weekend. However, that provided little solace for Brady, who had his first losing season as a starter and his fourth one-and-done playoff appearance. His postgame press conference made it sound like a new team was in his future, but we’ll have to wait and see.

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If you think you have an inside track on Brady’s next team, DraftKings Sportsbook posted odds for all 32 NFL teams. The Buccaneers were the initial favorites at +200, but we’ve seen some movement in the market and the Raiders are now favored.

Here’s what Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon had to say on A Numbers Game about Brady’s potential landing spots.

Tom Brady next team odds

  • Las Vegas Raiders +150
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +300
  • San Francisco 49ers +350
  • Miami Dolphins +750
  • New England Patriots +750
  • New York Jets +800
  • New York Giants +900
  • Tennessee Titans +1200
  • Seattle Seahawks +1800
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
  • Washington Commanders +2000
  • Indianapolis Colts +2500
  • Carolina Panthers +3000
  • Baltimore Ravens +4000
  • Houston Texans +5000
  • Los Angeles Rams +5000
  • Green Bay Packers +5000
  • New Orleans Saints +5000
  • Atlanta Falcons +6000
  • Minnesota Vikings +7500
  • Detroit Lions +7500
  • Chicago Bears +15000
  • Philadelphia Eagles +15000
  • Dallas Cowboys +15000
  • Arizona Cardinals +15000
  • Denver Broncos +15000
  • Los Angeles Chargers +20000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +20000
  • Buffalo Bills +20000
  • Cincinnati Bengals +20000
  • Kansas City Chiefs +20000
  • Cleveland Browns +20000

All 32 teams are posted, but there are only four or five teams that have a legitimate shot at Brady starting the 2023 regular season as the starting quarterback.

Las Vegas Raiders +150

It is genuinely surprising that the Raiders weren’t the favorites to start, but betting action has swung the line that way. Their pursuit of Brady has been the worst-kept secret in the NFL for a few weeks now. Josh McDaniels was Brady’s longtime offensive coordinator in New England and the chance to play with Davante Adams and live in a place like Las Vegas has to be pretty appealing.

 

Also, from an ego standpoint, wouldn’t Brady love to unseat Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West as a main component of his swan song and legacy? This seems like the most likely location and probably the best bet of the options listed.

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +300

Will a coaching shake-up in Tampa Bay be enough to keep Brady with the Buccaneers? Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was nearly fired during the bye week, but some sources are saying he will be fired following the playoff loss to the Cowboys. For Brady to entertain staying, head coach Todd Bowles probably needs to go as well, but Brady has obviously developed a rapport with his teammates in Tampa.

The division also remains quite poor, so it may be the easiest path back to the postseason for TB12.

San Francisco 49ers +350

If the goal for Brady is to win another Super Bowl and that’s it, then this is absolutely the best possible landing spot with a potential quarterback opening. The 49ers have arguably the league’s best defense and an exceptional running game. From a “win now” standpoint, this is the “win now” team. The Rams are in shambles, the Cardinals continue to be a mess and the Seahawks just aren’t good enough at present.

Outside of the NFC South, this appears to be the easiest division to win next season and Brady is well aware of that. He was also born in San Mateo, CA, where he also attended Junipero Serra High School, and was a childhood fan of the Niners.

Of course, if Brock Purdy leads the 49ers to a Super Bowl win this season, there’s virtually no way they’d make a change.

Miami Dolphins +750

Brady opted for a different team in the Sunshine State, but he was very much in negotiations with the Dolphins before signing with the Buccaneers. The Dolphins have a ton of offensive weapons and the ongoing concussion concerns with Tua Tagovailoa could push Miami in different directions this offseason.

Would Brady want to go up against Josh Allen and also play for a head coach six years his junior when the season starts? 

New England Patriots +750

Would both sides be open to a reunion? The Patriots offense has been a mess since Brady left, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots front office showed a lot of hesitation in giving Brady more than a two-year deal in 2019. Personally, I can’t see it.

Tom Brady next contract

Another question to be answered is how long Brady actually wants to play. It seems like any contract he signs would be a one-year deal in search of his eighth Super Bowl win. He’ll be 46 before the season starts and he did show signs of age this past season. It wasn’t all about the Buccaneers and their bad coaching. He’s also led the NFL in pass attempts each of the last two seasons and fell one short of 800 attempts this season with 66 in the playoff game.

How much is left in the tank? How much do talent evaluators think is left in the tank? We’ll have to see how his free agency plays out, but some teams certainly look like better fits than others.