For the third time this season, we’ll see the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears clash in an NFC North showdown. However, this one will have some much higher stakes, as the two are set to meet in the NFC Wild Card Round on Saturday, January 10. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Packers vs. Bears betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Packers vs. Bears
When: Saturday, January 10 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Packers vs. Bears Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 7. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -118, Bears -102
Spread: Packers -1.5 (-102), Bears +1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 45.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)
Packers vs. Bears Analysis
When the Packers hosted the Bears on December 7, Matt LaFleur’s team came away with a 28-21 win as a 6.5-point favorite. However, when the teams met in Chicago on December 20, Ben Johnson’s group got revenge with a 22-16 victory as a 1-point favorite. With that in mind, it was the home team that won-and-covered in the two meetings between these teams in the regular season — though the Bears were definitely fortunate in their home win, scoring 10 points in the final two minutes to force overtime and then steal the victory.
The fact that Chicago will be playing in Soldier Field here is big. This season, the Bears are 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread at home. They’re also 6-2 both SU and ATS when playing games with lines of +3 to -3, and they’re 4-2 both SU and ATS when taking on teams with winning records. All in all, while Ben Johnson did inherit a team with some serious talent, it’s clear that he quickly washed the stink off this franchise and made this a serious football team. Now, the pressure will be on the former Detroit offensive coordinator to deliver in the postseason.
While the Bears were able to beat the Packers last game, it was a game in which Jordan Love got hurt. Despite that, Green Bay was in control until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. That marks two games this season in which the Packers largely looked like the better team than the Bears, which isn’t crazy when considering the advanced stat profiles of these squads.
This season, Green Bay is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.122), giving the team a pretty big edge over eighth-ranked Chicago (0.076). The Packers are also right there with the Bears defensively, as Chicago is 21st (0.035) and Green Bay is 22nd (0.042). Of course, the Packers did lose Micah Parsons to a torn ACL in the middle of December, meaning they’re without one of the sport’s most dangerous defensive weapons. But it’s hard not to trust defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to have his group ready — especially with two sets of film to look at when preparing for this defense.
I’m also not the biggest Love fan in the world, but he has played in more big games than Caleb Williams. You can’t discount that here. Love should be a little more comfortable than Williams, who will also have to deal with some rough throwing conditions. That should give Green Bay another small edge offensively.
The Packers are also a hard team to keep down with LaFleur on the sidelines. They’re 4-0 ATS when coming off four consecutive non-covers. Meanwhile, the Bears are just 2-4 both SU and ATS in division games this season, so Johnson hasn’t exactly killed it in the tougher games Chicago has played.
Packers vs. Bears Player Props
Lean: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
I know Love is coming off a two-week absence, but it’s hard not to like even-money odds on him to throw two touchdown passes. Love threw for three scores in the first meeting with the Bears this season, and I’m not worried about him playing in cold — and potentially snowy — conditions. He has shown that he can deliver in rough weather games before, and this Bears secondary hasn’t done enough to prove it can keep a good quarterback from doing something fairly common.
Packers vs. Bears Pick
I actually had the Bears the last time we saw these teams clash, but I felt awful about it for most of the game — and that was with Willis playing a good chunk of it. With Love set to play after missing the last few weeks with a concussion, I’m backing the road team. I have been high on Chicago all year, but this is a pretty brutal Wild Card matchup.
Bet: Packers -1 (-110)
