On Sunday, September 28, Micah Parsons makes his return to Arlington, where his Green Bay Packers take on the Dallas Cowboys in the Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Packers vs. Cowboys
When: Sunday, September 28th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: NBC
Packers vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, September 26th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -360, Cowboys +285
Spread: Packers -7 (-105), Cowboys +7 (-115)
Total: Over 47.5 (-105), Under 47.5 (-115)
Packers vs. Cowboys Analysis
It seems like everybody wants to take Parsons in his return to Dallas. Our VSiN betting splits page shows 75% of the tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook are on Green Bay, and the Circa splits show even more. However, both sportsbooks show a good amount of handle on the Cowboys, and that’s probably where I’d go with the side here.
CeeDee Lamb’s ankle injury definitely makes things a little rougher on Dallas, but are you really worried about the Cowboys offense? Dak Prescott and Co. should be able to move the ball in this game. Dallas is currently ninth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.083), with very little between the Cowboys and the team ranked fifth (the Buccaneers, at 0.097). George Pickens should be able to competently step up and play like a No. 1, and the rest of the Dallas wideouts are capable of scaling up a bit. Keep an eye on Jake Ferguson, too. He has been one of the best tight ends in football this year, and Green Bay has struggled at guarding the position.
The issue is on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are just 31st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.217), and watching them get shredded by Russell Wilson and the Giants two weeks ago was rough. However, working in Dallas’ favor is the fact that Jordan Love isn’t as comfortable on the road. Green Bay is also just 10-14 against the spread as a road favorite under Matt LaFleur, and the team is also just 19-22 ATS when facing teams with losing records with him on the sidelines.
Also, for as bad as the Cowboys defense has been, the group has been alright against the run (-0.054 Rush EPA per play allowed). Well, a lot of what the Packers want to do is reliant on Josh Jacobs getting going on the ground. So, if Dallas can just do a decent job of keying in on him, the team can put more pressure on Love to make some tough throws.
This is also a lot of points. In Week 1, everybody liked Philadelphia, a very good team, to handle Dallas with ease, but the Cowboys were able to make it respectable. This could be a very similar outcome.
As far as the total goes, our betting splits seem to show some public love for the Over, but the numbers have either dropped or stayed the same at most shops. And the Under is probably the right way to play it. Green Bay is fourth in the NFL in run frequency (50.29%). So, even if the Packers are able to shred the Cowboys defense, they’re not going to do it without killing some clock. Plus, the Packers have gone Under in three straight games, and the Under is 2-1 in the Cowboys’ three games.
Packers vs. Cowboys Player Props
Lean: Jake Ferguson Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Our new OptaAI player prop projections page has an edge on Prescott to go Over his passing yard total, so that’s one way to attack this one. However, my favorite prop is for Ferguson to go Over 51.5 receiving yards. Green Bay is giving up 71.7 yards per game to tight ends this year, and Ferguson comes into this one averaging 80.0 receiving yards over the last two games. Ferguson has also racked up 22 receptions over the last two contests, and Prescott has looked his way 26 times. Now that Lamb is out, everybody is going to be quick to assume that it’s Pickens’ turn to rack up numbers. But don’t be surprised if Prescott continues to look Ferguson’s way.
Packers vs. Cowboys Pick
I usually like to have plays on the primetime games, but I’m staying away from this one. I think Dallas has a good shot at covering the big number, but I’m not interested in actually putting anything on it. If Love proves me wrong and has a nice day through the air, this game has the potential to be pretty lopsided.
Lean: Cowboys +7 (-115)
