The first of three Thanksgiving Day matchups for the 2025 NFL season features the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. We’ll be diving into all of the big standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Packers vs. Lions
When: Thursday, November 27th at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: FOX
Packers vs. Lions Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 25th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -142, Packers +120
Spread: Lions -2.5 (-112), Packers +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 48.5 (-115), Under 48.5 (-105)
Packers vs. Lions Analysis
Last year marked Detroit’s first Thanksgiving Day victory since 2016, but Dan Campbell’s team is favored to make it two in a row. While Green Bay blasted Detroit in a 27-13 win in Week 1, there’s a lot that suggests the Lions will get their lick back.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-4 against the spread when when looking to avenge a loss. The Lions are also 5-0 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss under Campbell, so his Detroit teams don’t take two losses in a row against the same opponent.
This is also a weaker Packers offense than we saw earlier in the year. While Green Bay has an EPA per play of 0.142 on the season, the number is down at 0.049 over the last four weeks. That’s a pretty significant stretch, as Tucker Kraft went down with a torn ACL during the loss to the Panthers on November 2. Kraft isn’t just your standard security blanket at tight end. While he is a strong safety valve for Jordan Love, he’s also a big play waiting to happen because of his ability to make plays after the catch. And he’s a pretty lethal downfield threat compared to players at his position.
With no Kraft, it’s just not exactly clear that Love should be treated like a top quarterback. Over this recent four-week stretch, Love has thrown for only two touchdowns — and both of those came in a win over the Giants. Let’s see what he can do against a Lions team that is ninth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.019). And let’s see if he can thrive against a Detroit team that could take the Green Bay running game out of this. The Lions are fifth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.128), so there’s a chance they make life rough on the Packers on early downs.
I also have some faith in Detroit’s offense showing up here. Since Week 9, Jared Goff has a TD-INT ratio of 8-2. He has also thrown for at least 255 yards in four straight games, and he had 284 or more in two of the four. He’s playing a lot better for a Lions team that already has a potent running game. Also, Goff has taken more chances down the field than he did against the Packers in the first meeting, when Lions offensive coordinator John Morton seemingly didn’t want the 31-year-old to throw the ball beyond the sticks. Well, Campbell is now calling plays for this offense, so that shouldn’t be a problem again — especially with this game being played in a dome.
Packers vs. Lions Player Props
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Our OptaAI player prop projections have a major edge to the Over on St. Brown’s receiving yard total this week. They have the star wideout finishing with 88.92 yards, despite the fact that he’s facing a Packers team that is seventh in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.053). The reality is that St. Brown has had at least 86 receiving yards in three of the last four games, and he’s averaging 103.4 receiving yards per game in five home games this season. Goff is simply more comfortable playing in Detroit, and that means St. Brown is more dangerous at Ford Field. And this week, I expect him to bounce back from his 45-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 1. The only home game in which St. Brown has failed to reach the 75-yard mark was a game in which he had seven catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland. He’s unbelievable in this stadium.
Packers vs. Lions Pick
The Lions might be coming off a poor performance against the Giants, but you know what? The Packers had trouble with the Giants two games ago. That said, I’m not overreacting to what we saw last week. I’m also not paying much attention to Week 1. There’s been a lot of football played since then, and the last couple of weeks suggest Green Bay is sliding a bit. Detroit should be able to take advantage, especially with the team being hungry for revenge. I like the Lions to win this one, but I’m going moneyline over spread. I’m also playing the St. Brown prop.
Bet: Lions ML (-138 – 1.5 units) & St. Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
