The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season features the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 14 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
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How To Watch Packers vs. Lions
When: Thursday, December 5th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Packers vs. Lions Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 3rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -180, Packers +150
Spread: Lions -3.5 (-105), Packers +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 51 (-115), Under 51 (-105)
Packers vs. Lions Analysis
The Packers and Lions met in Green Bay on November 3rd, when Detroit earned a 24-14 win as a 2.5-point road favorite. It’s a little interesting that the spread is only one point different at Ford Field. I do like what we have seen from Green Bay lately, but the numbers say Detroit is better on both sides of the ball. The Lions are fourth in the league in EPA per play (0.144) and the Packers are eighth (0.084). And defensively, Detroit is first in EPA per play allowed (-0.115) and Green Bay is 10th (-0.040). This game will also be played in a dome, where the Lions are 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread this year. Conventional wisdom says if the Packers were going to get their division rivals, it probably would have come in the elements, at Lambeau Field. Jared Goff is a completely different quarterback indoors.
The problem is that laying 3.5 with the best team in football seems a little too easy. And the spread in this one screams three-point win for Detroit. That’s enough to scare me off playing a Lions team that the public is going to hammer. And honestly, a Pros vs. Joes situation could be developing here, which is why I’m going to take the points with the Packers. Make sure you keep an eye on Josh Appelbaum’s content for more on that. He does a great job of tracking public money and sharp money. You can also do it yourself with our VSiN betting splits.
As far as the total goes, I have a slight lean on the Under. The number is all the way up at 51, but these teams have both played three division games this season and both have gone Under in two of the three. We also just saw a game in which these teams combined to score 38 points. Sure, that game was played outdoors, but this one is being played on a short week. These games tend to be somewhat ugly. And both defensive coordinators know what to expect from the opposing offense.
Packers vs. Lions Player Props
Tucker Kraft Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-114)
Tucker Kraft’s longest reception in the November meeting with the Lions was just 13 yards. However, the talented tight end has had a reception of at least 16 yards in seven of the 12 games he has played this season. That said, with this game moving to a more offense-friendly venue, I don’t see any reason Kraft can’t get on the board with another long reception. He’s just relentless after the catch, capable of turning short throws into big gains with his power and determination. But he’s also capable of just getting free deep, and Green Bay will surely look to utilize his size and talent in this game.
Packers vs. Lions Pick
I won’t be putting much on this game, but I do think the oddsmakers are trying to trap public bettors here. So, I’m taking the 3.5 with Green Bay. Last year, the Packers rolled into Ford Field and won 29-22 as 8.5-point underdogs. This Lions defense is definitely better than it was a year ago, but would it really shock you if it happened again? If not for Matt Eberflus’ bizarre late-game coaching last week, Chicago could have beat Detroit and changed the narrative heading into this week. You won’t see the same types of mistakes from the Green Bay coaching staff. In fact, I think Matt LaFleur will have his guys more prepared than the Lions here.
Bet: Packers +3.5 (-115)
