On Saturday, January 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers in a matchup that will decide the NFC South. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Panthers vs. Buccaneers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 18 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Panthers vs. Buccaneers
When: Saturday, January 3 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 1. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Buccaneers -155, Panthers +130
Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-108), Panthers +3 (-112)
Total: Over 43.5 (-115), Under 43.5 (-105)
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Analysis
If the Panthers defeat the Buccaneers this week, Dave Canales’ team will win the NFC South division. However, Carolina will also win the division with a Falcons victory over the Saints. With that in mind, this isn’t a win-and-in situation for Tampa Bay. Todd Bowles’ group needs a victory and an Atlanta loss to win this division for the fifth year in a row.
Carolina looks like the sharp play here. In looking at our Circa Sports betting splits, it’s clear that a majority of the public likes Tampa. However, the spread has moved from Buccaneers -3 to Buccaneers -2.5. That reverse line movement signals sharp action on the Panthers. The Under also looks like a sharper option when looking at the total. Despite the fact that there’s a lot of action on the Over, the number hasn’t gone up from 43.5. That freeze suggests the oddsmakers don’t want the number to go up, as they’re more worried about the players on the Under.
Carolina does look like the right side here. The Panthers are far from perfect, but the Buccaneers have lost four straight games and seven of their last eight. They’re also 0-8 against the spread in their last eight games. Also, since the start of Week 9, Carolina has a stronger statistical profile. Since then, the Panthers have been a much better defensive team, as they’re 21st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.064) and the Buccaneers are 29th (0.118). There has also been very little that separates the two on offense, with Tampa being 21st (-0.024) and Carolina being 23rd (-0.031).
We also just saw the Panthers beat the Buccaneers, coming away with a 23-20 victory in Carolina on December 21. That was a game in which the Carolina secondary held up well against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa passing game. The Panthers held the Bucs to 145 yards through the air, and Mayfield’s QBR was just 61.6. Well, are we sure there’s going to be a big change with this one being played in Raymond James Stadium? Sure, playing at home counts for something, but the Buccaneers have scored 20 or fewer points in five of the last six games. And overall, even with his receivers back and healthy, Mayfield has largely struggled to get things going in the air.
I also think there’s a good chance the Panthers running game is a lot more efficient in this meeting. Carolina got only 56 rushing yards on 15 carries out of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard last time, but Tampa’s rushing defense hasn’t been great since Week 9. That said, I’d expect Canales, who is a great play caller, to have a better approach to attacking his former team on the ground. I also think Bryce Young will feed off that, making big throws against a Bucs defense that has a Dropback EPA per play allowed of 0.199 since Week 9.
Carolina is also much easier to back as an underdog than a favorite. Meanwhile, Tampa is 14-24-1 ATS as a favorite under Bowles. The team is also 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or fewer points with him on the sidelines.
I’ll also note that Steve Makinen, our VSiN analytics expert, has an estimated line of Buccaneers -1.3 in this game. That means Panthers backers are getting some good value with the field goal.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Player Props
Lean: Rico Dowdle Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
I mentioned that I think there’s room for improvement in the Carolina running game, and Dowdle really feels like he’s due for a big afternoon. Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 62.90 rushing yards, which is a nice edge to the Over on his yardage total. Dowdle is coming off a 59-yard performance against a good Seattle rushing defense, and he can easily repeat that if he gets another double-digit carries.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Pick
I wouldn’t suggest going too heavy on this game, as I’m not sure I trust either of these teams. However, Tampa Bay has been one of the coldest teams in football over the last couple of months, and this feels like a team that is heading towards a coaching change. I wouldn’t be surprised if a final-week loss to Carolina ends up being the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Bet: Panthers +3 (-112)
