On Sunday, January 25, a trip to the Super Bowl will be on the line when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. We try to dive into all of the big games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Patriots vs. Broncos betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Conference Championship Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Patriots vs. Broncos
When: Sunday, January 25 at 3:00 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: CBS / Paramount+
Patriots vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 21. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Patriots -258, Broncos +210
Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-102), Broncos +5.5 (-118)
Total: Over 42.5 (-108), Under 42.5 (-112)
Patriots vs. Broncos Analysis
Towards the end of Denver’s win over Buffalo in the Divisional Round, Bo Nix fractured his ankle. That means that Jarrett Stidham will be under center for the Broncos, which is wild considering we’re one game away from the Super Bowl. Last week, when sportsbooks were showing their lookahead numbers, Denver was tracking to be a 1.5-point favorite in this game. Now, with Nix out, New England is anywhere between -4.5 and -5.5.
One of the big debates heading into this game is whether Nix is truly worth 5-6 points when looking at the spread. While Nix is a reliable starter, he hasn’t exactly looked special throughout the course of his sophomore season. His Pro Football Focus grade of 77.1 is good for 13th in the NFL, but it’s actually down from the 78.3 he posted in his rookie year. That said, replacing him won’t be easy, but it also won’t be impossible.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton is one of the sharpest offensive minds in football, and counting Denver out will be a dangerous game as long as he’s on the sidelines. Stidham has also played some decent games throughout his career, and he was handpicked by Payton to be the backup for this team. So, while this situation is far from ideal, it’s one that Payton is likely ready for — and probably pretty confident about.
In a vacuum, I personally wouldn’t dock Denver too much for going from Nix to Stidham. I know he’s a competent player, and I really do trust Payton to put together a decent game plan. However, there is some context that I’m finding very hard to ignore. For starters, Stidham hasn’t started an NFL game since the 2023 season. Sure, he has played plenty of preseason football since then, but that’s not the same. Preseason football is nothing like an actual game, and regular-season games are nothing like playoff games. At least early on, this is all going to be very intimidating for Stidham. Also working against Stidham is the fact that Denver’s running game isn’t all that dangerous. When teams start their backups, they generally try to lean on the ground attack. Well, the Broncos are just 16th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play (-0.069), while the Patriots have an elite rushing defense when their defensive front is fully healthy — and it’s healthy right now.
I just don’t have a lot of faith in Denver scoring more than 17 or so points in this game, and even that feels a little high. Meanwhile, New England is No. 1 in the league in EPA per play (0.155) this year. And while Drake Maye has been a little shaky since the start of the postseason, I don’t anticipate him staying down for much longer. He has been the most efficient passer in football when looking at EPA + CPOE composite (0.223), and it really hasn’t been close. And if the Patriots defense delivers again, all it will take is a few big throws from Maye for this game to get busted open.
The Pats are also 9-0 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Mike Vrabel. Meanwhile, under Payton, the Broncos are just 9-14 SU and 11-12 ATS as underdogs.
As far as the total goes, the Under could be worth a look. Denver is going to try and really shrink this game, and the defenses in this game are very reliable. Also, the Under is 9-4-1 in the 14 home games the Broncos have played with totals between 42.5 and 49 under Payton. And Steve Makinen, our analytics expert, has these two projected for 41.8 points.
Patriots vs. Broncos Player Props
Lean: Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While I like the Patriots to win this game, I do think the Broncos can handle the New England running game. I also believe defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is going to want Maye to prove he can beat his defense through the air. Well, I think Maye can do it. Our OptaAI player prop projections also seem to believe in the second-year superstar, projecting him to throw for 270.11 yards in this one. That’s a massive edge to the Over. Maye has also had at least 224 passing yards in 14 of the 18 games he has played this season.
Patriots vs. Broncos Pick
I’m not going to get carried away with my unit sizes here, but I do expect this to be a game the Patriots win somewhat comfortably. It’s a shame we’re not going to see these two battling at full strength, as I might have been on the Broncos with Nix under center. However, I feel it’s a little too late in the year to believe in a career backup to keep things close against an elite team.
Bet: Patriots -4.5 (-110)
