On Sunday, December 21, the Baltimore Ravens welcome the New England Patriots to M&T Bank Stadium in a Week 16 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Patriots vs. Ravens betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Patriots vs. Ravens
When: Sunday, December 21 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Patriots vs. Ravens Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, December 19. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ravens -162, Patriots +136
Spread: Ravens -3 (-105), Patriots +3 (-115)
Total: Over 48.5 (-112), Under 48.5 (-108)
Patriots vs. Ravens Analysis
For the second year in a row, it has been a tale of two seasons for the Ravens defense. Last year, after a very slow start to the year, Baltimore ended up performing like one of the best defenses in football. This year, we have seen more of the same. Before the Ravens’ Week 7 bye, they were 32nd in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.163). Well, since Week 7, they’re fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.119).
Baltimore is also coming off an impressive showing against Cincinnati. After losing 32-14 to the Bengals on Thanksgiving Day, the Ravens shut them out at Paycor Stadium last week. Now it’s hard not to like Baltimore to turn in a decent defensive performance against New England. The Ravens have been flat-out special when it comes to defending the run over the last eight weeks, as they have a league-best Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.236). Well, that should help Baltimore slow down TreVeyon Henderson and a scorching hot rushing attack. And if the Ravens can do that, that’ll also make it a little easier to keep Drake Maye from lighting them up.
Maye is also coming off a game in which he did unravel a bit in the second half. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds to that performance — especially playing a road game in a very difficult place to win.
The Ravens just need to play a decent game offensively. That should seem easy for a team with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers, but they’re just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.001) this season. The Patriots also happen to be 10th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.020), so this is a good defensive team. However, Jackson did say this week that he’s no longer feeling hampered by injuries. That should allow him to go out and be the dual-threat superstar we all expect — especially with this being a primetime game. These are the ones in which you can generally count on Jackson to ball out. He loves performing under the lights.
Henry could also be in for a monster game for Baltimore. Since Milton Williams got injured, New England has been one of the worst defenses in football against the run. That could be a problem in a cold-weather game against Henry, who always seems to turn it on at this time of year.
The Ravens also come into this game having failed to cover in four of their last five contests. Well, Baltimore is 18-4 against the spread under Harbaugh when failing to cover in four of five games. The Ravens have also won those games by an average score of 25.2 to 15.2. We got a little taste of that last week. Baltimore also happens to be 11-8 ATS when playing games with lines of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. On top of that, the Ravens are 3-1 both straight-up and ATS when hosting teams with winning percentages of 75% or better in that span.
Patriots vs. Ravens Player Props
LEAN: Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Henry is averaging 97.0 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and he had 100 yards on just 11 carries against the Bengals last week. This week, the big, talented superstar will be facing a Patriots defense that has been miserable against the run for quite some time now. Henry should get some some big holes to run through here, plus he should have no trouble bouncing some runs outside.
Patriots vs. Ravens Pick
I posted a play to the VSiN picks page on Baltimore -2.5 earlier in the week, making that one of my Week 16 NFL best bets. I got that at -115, but it’s -120 now. Still, I’d play this at juiced odds. I’d also be willing to go up to -3. New England is a good football team, but Baltimore is a tough matchup. That’s especially true with the Ravens in a must-win situation.
Bet: Ravens -2.5 (-115 – 1.5 units)
