Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Predictions and Odds:

Is the world-famous Mike Tomlin streak in jeopardy? The Steelers have never had a losing season under the 52-year-old, longest-tenured head coach in the NFL. A brutal schedule is just one of many challenges facing Pittsburgh this season, as Tomlin will try to turn back the clock with Russell Wilson. Or maybe they’ll go with Justin Fields. Who knows, but the Steelers look a lot different on offense than we’ve seen in recent seasons.

The defense should be solid like always, but the ceiling will be determined by the offense under new OC Arthur Smith.

 

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Offense

That Smith-led offense is one of the most interesting storylines in the division and the AFC as a whole. The Steelers were 28th in points and 25th in yardage last season, even though they only committed 16 turnovers and went +11 in turnover margin. The offense was given the ability to succeed, but fell short in so many key areas. Pittsburgh only had 13 passing touchdowns. Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill had 13 receiving touchdowns on their own.

Smith’s run-heavy approach would seem more conducive to starting Fields, but Wilson is in the driver’s seat for now. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will share the backfield again, but with Cordarrelle Patterson sprinkled in. Roman Wilson will attempt to be the WR2 that the passing game desperately needs next to George Pickens. 

As much as Smith failed as a head coach, he’s still a good OC and the Steelers were 23rd in EPA/play and 25th in Dropback EPA, so the passing game has tons of room for improvement.

Defense

The back seven has been completely retooled for the Steelers, including new LB Patrick Queen, who had his “one of us” moment by praising the Pittsburgh food scene during OTAs. DeShon Elliott and Miles Killebrew were brought in at safety and Anthony Averett, Donte Jackson, and Cameron Sutton were all brought in at cornerback.

Pittsburgh was seventh in EPA/play, eighth in Dropback EPA, and 11th in Rush EPA, so this truly was a solid defensive unit. Having T.J. Watt certainly doesn’t hurt. With more depth behind second-year corner Joey Porter Jr. and more bodies around Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee, the Pittsburgh defense looks stout once again and better equipped to withstand injuries.

Outlook

If Russ isn’t cooked, or the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t wait too long to hand the keys to Fields, this really looks like an improved roster in a ton of areas. But, the schedule is a bear. After the Week 9 bye, the Steelers play all six AFC North games, plus games against Washington, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. 

Tomlin might very well be the best in the business at getting the most out of his players, but the Steelers’ schedule is too much to overlook. So is the vig on the Under 8.5 at -165, but that would be my pick in a pool or contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Under 8.5 Wins

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