Player Props NFL
The wonderful world of NFL player prop betting has returned! The long offseason is over, one game is in the books, and bettors everywhere are looking for their favorite Week 1 wagers. I, too, am looking for those and will share my favorite NFL player props every Friday, as noted in our VSiN Football Article Calendar.
For those new to the game or looking for a refresher, there are a few things I am looking for when it comes to making a prop bet. The first is game state. How will the game play out? Is one team likely to throw the ball more because they’re trailing in the second half? What about the opposite – is one team going to be running more with the lead to bleed clock?
The second is injuries. Who’s in and who’s out? Who stands to benefit the most from those absences? Those can also have a direct impact on the gameplan and the play calling.
Finally, weather is a major consideration for me. For most of these early-season games, we have little to worry about. But, as we get deeper into the fall and winter, Mother Nature may dictate the play calling and how deep the route tree actually goes. We definitely saw weather have an impact on the Thursday Night Football game, as a long lightning delay slowed the scoring.
Obviously the matchups are tremendously important, too. And there are some great resources at Fantasy Points, where the promo code VSIN2025 will get you a discount on signing up to use their proprietary tools and models.
Alright, without further ado, let’s get to some Week 1 NFL Player Props. As always, shop around for the best prices. These lines are from DraftKings as of 11 a.m. ET on Friday, September 5.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 1:
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
It will be interesting to see what the workload looks like for Charbonnet here and I’m even considering Over 7.5 Rush Attempts at plus money. He only went over that in one game last season when Kenneth Walker III was healthy, but Charbonnet was a daily participant in camp and Walker missed a lot of time as new OC Klint Kubiak was installing a run-heavy offensive scheme.
Brady Henderson of ESPN did an Aug. 20 feature on Charbonnet and to say that the praise was effusive would be an understatement. With a big first game and Walker trying to get his sea legs literally and figuratively, I think Charbonnet ends up getting a good amount of touches and snaps in this one. He was my Seahawks Player To Watch in our recently-released NFL 2.0 Betting Guide.
RJ Harvey (DEN) Over 2.5 Receptions (+135)
A nice plus price here. Javonte Williams had 70 targets and 52 catches for the Broncos last season. The only running backs with more targets were Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. Harvey’s expected to be in a timeshare with J.K. Dobbins, but Dobbins only has 73 total targets for his career in 37 games.
Joe Lombardi’s offense does include safety valve routes and designed plays to running backs coming out of the backfield and Harvey looks like the better option between the two. Also, Sean Payton’s “Joker” role in the offense was up for grabs throughout the preseason and Harvey could be that guy. Remember, when Payton was coaching the Saints, he isolated dual-threat RBs like Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, and Kamara.
Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115), Anytime TD (+370)
Strange started to become a bigger factor in the Jaguars offense last season, as he had 40 grabs on 53 targets. He only had a couple of touchdown catches, but he’s the TE1 in an offense that should use him quite frequently. With new HC Liam Coen at the helm, Strange has the chance to be in more of a Tyler Higbee role. While he’s probably not the pass-catcher that Higbee is, remember that Higbee had 108 targets and 72 catches for the Rams in 2022.
Now, Higbee only had three TDs that season, so the ATD prop might be a little bit of a stretch, but he is playing a Panthers defense that gave up the most points, yards, and yards per play last season. Also, Carolina gave up the most receiving TD to tight ends with 11 even though they were tied for 13th in fewest receptions against by that position.
De’Von Achane (MIA) Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Achane was limited throughout most of the preseason due to a calf issue and those can be very finicky, especially for running backs. The Colts defense last season was fifth in Rushing Success Rate against, so they did a good job of not giving up explosive plays on the ground. It may make more sense for the Dolphins to go with more of a bruising back in Ollie Gordon with Achane’s health in question and limited big-play potential.
Mike McDaniel can also always opt to use jet sweeps and quick swing passes to guys like Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, and even Achane, as an extension of the run. Miami was just 19th in rush attempts last season and my read is that we see a lot of Tua Tagovailoa in this one.
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