The Denver Broncos are set to host the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High on Thursday, November 6. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in football right now, but things don’t generally come easy in divisional games. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Raiders vs. Broncos
When: Thursday, November 6 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 4. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Broncos -485, Raiders +370
Spread: Broncos -9.5 (-110), Raiders +9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 42.5 (-118), Under 42.5 (-102)
Raiders vs. Broncos Analysis
Since 1983, road teams that have lost two of their last three games are 5-21 against the spread when playing on Thursdays, and those teams have lost those games by an average of 11.1 points per game. Not all trends can be easily explained, but that one seems pretty simple — bad teams don’t do good things on short rest.
Las Vegas’ offense did look a little better last week, putting up 29 in a loss to Jacksonville. However, the team just shipped Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars, meaning Geno Smith has one less weapon to work with. This team is already just 29th in the league in EPA per play (-0.117), so that move will be tough for the Raiders to overcome. Meyers was really the only receiver on the team that opponents had to worry about. Vegas will now be relying heavily on Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, and opponents should be able to plan for that. That also feels especially true of a Denver defense that is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.060). The Broncos have been tremendous against the run, so they should be able to keep Jeanty in check. They also should look just fine in the secondary, even without Patrick Surtain II.
Vance Joseph just has to make sure his linebackers are ready for a heavy dose of Bowers over the middle of the field. For what it’s worth, the Broncos have been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to covering opposing tight ends this year. Though Bowers really is more of a top wideout than a traditional tight end.
As far as the other side of the ball goes, Denver should have success moving the chains. The Raiders are just 23rd in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.160). They have also been especially miserable against the pass. That could be trouble considering Bo Nix has played some awesome football after a slow start to the year. Since the start of Denver’s six-game winning streak, Nix has done nothing but make plays — whether that’s with his arm or his legs. JK Dobbins has also been great for the Broncos, rushing for at least 100 yards in two of the last six games. He’s makings things easier on Sean Payton as a play-caller, and he should have success hammering away between the tackles here.
Speaking of Payton, Denver is 5-0 ATS in home games when coming off four or five covers in its previous six games since he took over as coach. The Broncos have also won those games by an average of 22.2 points per game. Denver also happens to be 4-2 ATS when playing teams with winning percentages between 25% and 40% under Payton. Meanwhile, Vegas is 0-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this year. Also, when the team was a road underdog of 7 in Indianapolis on October 5, the Raiders lost by 34 against the Colts.
Raiders vs. Broncos Player Props
Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Sutton had only 30 yards against the Texans last week, but he has had at least 54 receiving yards in six of the nine games the Broncos have played this year. Nix has definitely been spreading the ball around a little more than usual since the start of this season, but Sutton is still his go-to guy. Sutton also happened to have a massive performance against Vegas last year, finishing with eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns when they met on November 24. And our OptaAI player prop projections have Sutton going for 60.81 receiving yards here. That’s a good amount higher than his total, meaning there’s some decent value in going Over.
Raiders vs. Broncos Pick
I lean Denver -8.5 (-114) and Under 42.5 (-102) in this game. However, I don’t feel good enough about either to actually play anything. Instead, I’m going to take the Sutton prop and hope he finishes with at least 54 yards. It’s never fun passing on sides and totals in a primetime game, but at least I’ll have something.
Bet: Sutton Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
