The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Los Angeles Rams at Levi’s Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 15 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
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How To Watch Rams vs. 49ers
When: Thursday, December 12th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 10th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: 49ers -135, Rams +114
Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-115), Rams +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 49 (-108), Under 49 (-112)
Rams vs. 49ers Analysis
The Rams have won two games in a row against the 49ers, and that includes a 27-24 comeback win in Week 3. Los Angeles outscored San Francisco 13-3 in the fourth quarter in that one, and the team did it without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Our DraftKings betting splits also happen to show a good amount of public love for the Rams. However, Los Angeles have moved from +2 to +2.5, despite having the recent head-to-head edge and the better record this season. So, it sure looks like the sharp money is coming in on the home team. And the 49ers are the team that I’m looking to back here.
For as bad as it might seem like the 49ers are, they have a slightly better EPA per play than the Rams. San Francisco’s is 0.072 and Los Angeles’ is 0.051. The 49ers also have an EPA per play allowed of 0.014. That’s not great, but it’s better than the Rams’ 0.078. It’s just hard to ignore that San Francisco is statistically better on both sides of the ball, and the 49ers looked like the 49ers for the first time in a while last week. They earned a 25-point win as 3-point favorites over the Bears, racking up 452 yards of total offense and holding Chicago to just 162 total yards. It was a dominant performance and it definitely feels like the Niners are gearing up for one final playoff push. Crazier things have happened. Washington is currently the seventh seed in the NFC, but San Francisco should have a shot at 10-7. Winning out might not seem likely, but they have home games against the Rams and Lions, plus road games against the Dolphins and Cardinals. It’s not impossible. The Detroit game is the only one in which the team will be getting points.
San Francisco is also 9-5 straight-up when taking on a team it lost to as a favorite earlier in the year under Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are also 4-2 SU when those games have come on the road. On top of that, the Rams are just 11-16 SU as road underdogs of 7 or fewer under Sean McVay.
It’s also very important to note that only three teams are worse than the Rams when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.162) this season. Well, Brock Purdy tends to pick opponents apart when they don’t have strong secondaries. It’s the great defenses that get to him. That said, I just don’t see Los Angeles coming away with enough stops to win this game, even if the Rams do have a full suite of weapons to test the 49ers defense themselves. When push comes to shove, home-field advantage should help a desperate San Francisco team get a few more key stops in this game.
Rams vs. 49ers Player Props
Deebo Samuel Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Samuel went on social media and complained about his lack of touches after last week’s win over Chicago. You never really want that after one of your biggest wins of the season, but this is just how NFL wide receivers are these days. And you know what? They generally get what they want. It feels like whenever top wide wideouts come out and demand the ball, their quarterbacks try their best to satisfy them. Well, with that in mind, I’m taking a shot on Samuel to have at least 48 receiving yards here.
The timing is actually interesting for a play like this, as George Kittle had six catches for 151 yards last week. Also, Jauan Jennings had seven catches for 90 yards. Would it surprise you at all if the Rams focus on those two instead of Samuel when looking at ways to cover this offense? If they do, perhaps Samuel will have some room to operate here.
Rams vs. 49ers Pick
I didn’t get into the total in my analysis, but there’s a good chance this will be a high-scoring game. The Over is 3-1 in Los Angeles’ last four games, and it’s 2-1 in San Francisco’s last three. Also, the Over is 5-4 in the nine Thursday night games that the Rams have played under McVay, and it’s the same in the nine Thursday games the 49ers have played under Shanahan. But the reason I didn’t touch on the total is that I love the 49ers here. I think this team still has a little juice left, and I’m expecting San Francisco to make things interesting down the stretch. This is one of my Week 15 NFL best bets, and I’m going a little bigger than just a unit on it.
Bet: 49ers ML (-135)
