On Saturday, January 10, the Carolina Panthers will host the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Rams vs. Panthers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Rams vs. Panthers
When: Saturday, January 10 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Channel: FOX
Rams vs. Panthers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, January 6. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rams -550, Panthers +410
Spread: Rams -10.5 (-105), Panthers +10.5 (-115)
Total: Over 46.5 (-112), Under 46.5 (-108)
Rams vs. Panthers Analysis
The Rams are laying 10.5 in some spots. If that ends up being the closing spread, they’d be the biggest road favorites in NFL history. Los Angeles also looks like the sharper side. While a majority of the spread bets at DraftKings Sportsbook have been on Carolina, the road team has moved from -10 to -10.5.
It isn’t surprising that the public is looking to back the Panthers. Bryce Young and Co. already have a win over the Rams this season, winning 31-28 as a 10-point home underdog when the teams met on November 30. That will have a lot of casual bettors thinking Carolina can do it again, especially with this game being played in the same venue. However, the Panthers were aided by three Rams turnovers in that game. We likely won’t see as many mistakes out of a well-coached Los Angeles squad in a postseason setting. Also, under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 11-7 straight-up and 12-6 against the spread when facing teams they lost to earlier in the season. They’re also 6-1 both SU and ATS as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points, and that one loss came against this opponent. Do you really see it happening again?
You’ve probably heard it by now, but the Panthers have the worst point differential of any team in the postseason. At -69, they really have no business being in the field, but they ended up winning the weakest division in the NFL. Carolina is also several tiers below Los Angeles when looking at rbsdm’s NFL Team Tiers that are based on season-long EPA per play. While the Panthers are 26h in the league in EPA per play (-0.025), the Rams are second (0.149). Los Angeles is also superior when looking at EPA per play allowed (-0.069), ranking seventh in the NFL while Carolina is 23rd (0.060).
The Rams are just on another level when comparing the advanced stats profiles of these two teams, making it hard not to completely write off what we saw in the first meeting between these teams. If anything, Los Angeles might come out with better preparation and improved intensity, as the team won’t want to let another meeting with Carolina slip away.
Keep an eye on the Rams running game in this one. When these teams met in Week 13, Los Angeles rushed 20 times for 151 yards. Blake Corum rushed for 11.6 yards per carry in that one, and Kyren Williams rushed for 5.5 YPC on 13 totes. Both running backs also happened to find the end zone.
Matthew Stafford just needs to find a way to avoid costly mistakes here. He threw two picks when these teams met in Week 13, and he also lost a fumble. That was one of the two games this year in which he threw multiple picks, so it’s not like this happens often. Well, if Stafford can avoid handing a mediocre Carolina offense the ball, this is a game that could end up being extremely lopsided early on.
Our VSiN analytics guru Steve Makinen seems to agree with most of that, as our VSiN matchup pages had this game with an estimated line of Los Angeles -11.9.
Rams vs. Panthers Player Props
Lean: Kyren Williams Anytime TD Scorer (-145)
Corum had a good game against the Panthers last meeting, and he should mix in quite a bit in this playoff game. However, Williams is still the lead back for this Rams offense, and I like his chances of finding the end zone. Not only did Williams score against Carolina in Week 13, but he rushed for 10 touchdowns and had another three receiving scores this year. He’s just a very productive back, so he should be able to take advantage of a matchup with a mediocre defense.
Rams vs. Panthers Pick
The fact that the Panthers already have a win over the Rams might be hard to shake, but there’s a reason the oddsmakers set this line at -10 again. They’re not worried about what they saw last time, so you shouldn’t be either. Carolina lost six games by double digits this season. I think that number goes up to seven, even in a home playoff game.
Bet: Rams -10 (-110)
