Rams vs. Seahawks – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Kyren Williams Over 8.5 receiving yards (-105, BETMGM)
This pick is boring, but there’s nothing boring about winning, and with Davante Adams out, I have to think Williams will get an extra look or two in the passing game in this Thursday Night Football matchup. On the season, Seattle gives up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the passing game, and over the last five weeks they give up the 11th-most. Last week, Colts RBs combined for 8/42 receiving on nine targets with a long of 14 for Ameer Abdullah. In Week 15, Falcons RBs got 4/41 on only four targets, but Tyler Allgeier had a long of 21. The week before, the Vikings got shut out by Seattle, but their RBs had 6/27 receiving with a long of 13 for Aaron Jones. And in Week 13, the Titans RBs got 10 targets and 8/42 with longs of 10 and 12 for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Kyren had only one catch for five yards in this matchup last month, but Matthew Stafford only threw the ball 28 times and completed only 58% of his passes for 130 yards, all representing his lowest total of the 2025 season.
Terrance Ferguson Over 19.5 receiving yards (-115, BETMGM)
Veteran Tyler Higbee will not play in this Thursday Night Football contest, so Ferguson will once again be on the field a ton. The guy has only six catches on the season, and while he had only one catch for six yards last week, he was wide open for an easy 25+ yard TD (bad throw), and he also just missed a score on another play. He actually led the team with 29 routes (one more than Puka Nacua). Seattle allows the fourth-most receiving YPG (68.0) and the second-most receptions per game (6.5) to TEs, and over the last five weeks, they give up the 13th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs split from the formation (+0.6), and Ferguson lines up inline only 27% of the time. He’s definitely going to get some chances in this one, and Ferguson has the second-best schematic matchup among all Rams receivers (behind household name Konata Mumpfield), and he’s averaging a massive 24.0 YPR. I would not be surprised if Ferguson, their first selection and the 46th pick in April’s draft, gets over 19.5 yards on one catch.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115, BETMGM)
I rewatched the Rams game last week, and Lions WRs were running wide open all day, so I’d have think that JSN will deliver (yet again) in this one, and he crushed with 9/105 on 12 targets in this matchup last month. LA’s vulnerable at CB and they give up the ninth-most receptions per game (8.4) and the fourth-most receiving YPG (122.3) to outside receivers, but over the last five weeks, they’re even worse, giving up the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (+10.5). It’s also a good schematic matchup for JSN, of course, as LA uses the eight-highest rate of Cover 3 (34.7%), and he averages a massive 3.63 YPRR and .28 TPRR on 123 routes against the coverage. He’ll see a lot of former 1st-round bust Emmanuel Forbes, who has improved but is still quite beatable, giving up 0.34 FP/RR.
Colby Parkinson Over 39.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Due to the higher total, I have a little more confidence in Ferguson above, but Parkinson has been balling, and it’s a revenge game. Davante Adams won’t play, and veteran Tyler Higbee is out, so while they use three TEs, Parkinson is the top guy for sure. In his last four games, all without Higbee in the lineup, he’s got 4-7 targets, 3-5 catches, and 27-75 yards with 4 TDs in that span. Seattle gives up the fourth-most receiving YPG (68.0) and the second-most receptions per game (6.5) to TEs, and it’s still a plus matchup the last five weeks based on schedule-adjusted FPG given up. It’s also a good schematic matchup, since the Seahawks deploy Cover 3 (31.1%) and Cover 6 (17.9%) at a 49% clip, and he averages a strong 1.97 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 65 routes against those coverages. He’s coming off a massive game with 5/75/2 receiving on seven targets (18%) and an 86% snap share for a season-high 24.5 FP against the Lions last week, so we can’t expect him to go off again, but we can realistically anticipate 40+ yards.
AJ Barner Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
He’s not incredibly easy to trust, but I think the offense will have a solid day in Seattle in the second meeting between these two clubs, and Barner has been the only reliable receiver in Seattle other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With rookie Elijah Arroyo hurt, Sam Darnold has thrown only one ball to a TE not named Barner in their last three games, and not only did Barner catch 10 of 11 targets for 70 yards back in Week 11 in this matchup, he also hauled in 9/64 on 12 targets with a TD in two matchups in 2024 against the Rams, so he has 19 catches for 134 yards and a TD in his last three games in this matchup. We’re projecting 35.8, which is “only” 17% more, but it’s a positive schematic matchup overall, as our WR Coverage Matchup tool shows Barner seeing a 13% boost to his efficiency based on the coverages he’ll see. He’s not productive against Cover 3 and Cover 6, which they run about 40% of the time, but all the other shells show positive data for Barner. For example, they use Cover 2 about 19% of the time, and Barner’s .95 FP/RR against Cover 2 is third-best the last five weeks out of 110 receivers to run at least 35% of his team’s routes. If Barner fails to hit this one, I can almost guarantee that it’ll be very close in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
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