On Sunday, January 19th, the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke and I will provide in-depth previews of all of the NFL postseason games, so now is a great time to take advantage of our special and grab a VSiN Pro subscription. Not only will we have all sorts of written content over the next few weeks, but our live programming will be hitting on these games regularly throughout the playoffs. Bookmark our Divisional Round NFL Betting Hub for all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Ravens vs. Bills

When: Sunday, January 19th at 6:30 pm ET

Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Orchard Park, New York

Channel: CBS / Paramount+

Ravens vs. Bills Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, January 17th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Ravens -118, Bills -102

Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-102), Bills +1.5 (-118)

Total: Over 51.5 (-105), Under 51.5 (-115)

Ravens vs. Bills Analysis

Back on September 29th, the Ravens earned a 35-10 blowout win over the Bills. In that game, Lamar Jackson was 13 for 18 for two touchdowns and no picks, and Derrick Henry rushed 24 times for 199 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo couldn’t get Baltimore off the field, and the Bills didn’t have much success on offense themselves. In fact, Josh Allen didn’t throw or rush for a touchdown in that one. That was the first time that happened since November 7th, 2021.

For good reason, it certainly seems like people are weighing that first game heavily. Our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages show a pretty even split when it comes to bets and handle. However, I’d say that’s somewhat surprising considering the Bills were the better regular-season team. Buffalo is also 8-0 at home this season. So, if that September game never happened, I wonder if we’d be seeing more action on the Bills.

I’m also not sure the first game tells us much of anything about these teams. Jackson has the best primetime record of any quarterback since the 1970 merger, and the Ravens are very difficult to beat in home night games. The Bills were also coming off the Monday night game the week before that, so it was a short week for them. But things should be tilted in Buffalo’s favor this time around. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 54-18 straight-up in home games and 31-18 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3. Also, Buffalo is 9-4 SU when facing a team it lost to earlier in the year with McDermott on the sidelines.

Moving away from the trends and situations a bit, I do like the on-field matchup for the Bills. While Henry ran wild last game, this Buffalo defense is sixth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.163). I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of the Bills really turning things around and making it hard for Henry to pick up chunk yardage on the ground. And that’s especially true with this game being played in Buffalo at this time of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills sell out a bit against the run, putting the game on the shoulders of Jackson and the passing game. It’s going to be very cold and uncomfortable out there, and Jackson has struggled in road playoff games throughout his career. Are we sure this is the year he turns it around and lights up a good defense through the air? It sure seems like he’ll have to do it without Zay Flowers, meaning there won’t be a lot of pass-catching options that can consistently create separation against the Buffalo secondary. I’m also not sure you can trust Todd Monken to call a good game. He’s a great regular-season coordinator, but he pooped the bed in the Ravens-Chiefs game last year.

It’s also somewhat hard to imagine a scenario in which Baltimore’s defense keeps Allen down again. A lot has been made of the Ravens flipping a switch and figuring things out defensively, but is that really the case? From Week 11 on, Baltimore was the top team in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.153). That’s great. However, the Ravens faced the Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns in those seven games. The only good offense in there is the Philadelphia offense, and the Eagles won that game in Baltimore. That said, I’m not really buying the turnaround. I think Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady is going to be able to look at the film and find some things to attack against a Ravens defense that was 30th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.189) from Week 1 to 10. And I trust Allen to make the plays he needs to in the big moments.

It should also be noted that Buffalo hasn’t gotten over the hump against Kansas City, but that’s not because of Allen. We have seen him ball out in those games, but his defense wasn’t able to get key stops against Patrick Mahomes and Co. The same can’t really be said about Jackson. Baltimore’s postseason struggles in the Jackson era largely fall on him and his offense.

Ravens vs. Bills Player Props

Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Last week, Allen rushed for 46 yards in a blowout win over the Broncos. Allen has now rushed for at least 45 yards in three straight playoff games, and he has also done so in eight of the 11 postseason games he has played in his career. Allen’s legs just become a huge factor in the biggest games of the year, and part of that is his willingness to put his body on the line in do-or-die situations. With that in mind, I just don’t see any reason to go away from Allen’s rushing yard total in this game. I know Allen only rushed for 21 yards the last time he faced the Ravens, but that game got so out of hand that it didn’t make sense for Buffalo to run him much. I’d put more stock into Allen rushing for 70 yards against the Ravens in 2022, when Baltimore’s defense was a heck of a lot better than it is this year.

Ravens vs. Bills Pick

I considered going to the Under in this game. Most people are expecting a shootout between these two electric offenses, but I’m not sure I see it given the stakes and the weather. I’m also expecting both teams to at least try to run the ball. However, I ended up staying off it, as my favorite play in this game is Buffalo on the moneyline. I don’t need anything else to root for. I just can’t help myself with even-money odds on Allen and this elite Bills team at home. The fact that they’re playing a team that hasn’t won big playoff games in quite some time is just gravy.

Bet: Bills ML (+100)

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