On Sunday, January 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in Acrisure Stadium in a Week 18 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the standalone NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Ravens vs. Steelers betting preview, with this game set to decide the winner of the AFC North. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 18 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Ravens vs. Steelers
When: Sunday, January 4 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Ravens vs. Steelers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, January 3. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ravens -198, Steelers +164
Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-118), Steelers +3.5 (-102)
Total: Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Ravens vs. Steelers Analysis
Tyler Huntley played well enough in Week 17 to keep Baltimore’s season alive, throwing for a touchdown, rushing for 60 yards, and avoiding costly mistakes in a Ravens win over the Packers. Now, in a move you occasionally see when baseball teams use openers, the reliever will hand the ball to the starter. Lamar Jackson, who missed last game with a back injury, will be out there in Week 18, and he’ll be looking to improve on his near-80% winning percentage in primetime games.
According to our VSiN betting splits pages, Baltimore moved from -3 to -3.5 at both DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports with the news that Jackson will be returning. At both spots, the public seems to be more interested in the Pittsburgh side. However, I like the idea of laying the points with the Ravens, even if they haven’t been the easiest team to trust this season.
While I mentioned Huntley did his job in Week 17, it was really Derrick Henry that carried Baltimore to a victory. He rushed for 216 yards and four touchdowns in that one, and he has now rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games. He has also found the end zone six times over the last two weeks. Well, Pittsburgh is 25th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.032) this season, so there isn’t much that suggests the Steelers have what it takes to slow the superstar down. I know Henry only went for 94 yards on 25 carries when these teams met on December 7, but I expect a much better showing from the Ravens offensively here. And I think a committed approach to pounding away with Henry will be part of that.
I also have some faith in the Baltimore defense. This has been a borderline top-10 unit in EPA per play allowed (-0.025) since Week 5, turnings thing around after a slow start to the year for the second season in a row. And while Aaron Rodgers did throw for 284 yards with a touchdown and no picks — while rushing for another score — against Baltimore in Week 14, DK Metcalf had 148 yards in that game. Well, Metcalf is suspended for this one, so Rodgers is going to have to do it without him. And I’m just not sure that will be possible, as Metcalf’s combination of size and athleticism can’t be replicated by anybody else on the roster.
The Ravens also happen to be 41-24 straight-up and 36-25-4 against the spread under John Harbaugh as road favorites of 7 or less. Harbaugh also has a winning ATS mark when facing teams that beat him earlier in the season.
Ravens vs. Steelers Player Props
Lean: Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
If I had to take a player prop in this game, I’d be rolling with Henry to find the end zone. This is a man that has scored six times over the last two weeks, and he’s facing a team that has struggled mightily against the run this year. Henry also happened to go scoreless against the Steelers the first time they clashed, making it feel even more unlikely that he’ll be kept off the board again.
Ravens vs. Steelers Pick
Pittsburgh already earned a win over Baltimore this year, but it took a vintage performance from Rodgers to get it. I don’t see that happening without Metcalf, and I’m not sure the Steelers are going to have an answer for Henry’s legs. In fact, I think there’s a decent chance this game isn’t all that close.
Bet: Ravens -3.5 (-110)
