Now that we’re past the midpoint of the NFL season, it is a good time to take a look and see how the VSiN hosts who participated in our first Top 100 NFL Futures draft are faring thus far.
If you’ll recall, we did a live draft during Follow The Money back on Wednesday, August 13 to have 10 hosts select 10 futures each with five categories available to them. Over and Under Season Win Totals, Division Winner, Player Prop, Season Stat Leader. Some took a more aggressive approach than others. Some looked for more correlation than others, aligning props that were tied to the same team or personnel. Others just looked for “safe” plays. If you want to re-live it, the video is here.
A lot has obviously changed now that we’re 10 weeks and one game into the season. So, as we head into Week 11, let’s see how the NFL Futures are doing. You can see the entire list of picks here.
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Jonathan Von Tobel
In this snake draft format, JVT had the first pick and started with the Eagles to win the NFC East. And the co-host of Money Moves and Pod To The Futures had a long time to wait before making another pick.
1. Eagles to win NFC East (-135)
This one is aging pretty well to say the least. The Eagles entered Week 11 with a 3.5-game lead. They’re -5000 at DraftKings as of Monday, Nov. 10.
20. Derrick Henry Rush Yards Leader (+400)
Henry has quite a ways to go to catch up to Jonathan Taylor, as he’s more than 400 yards behind the league leader and seventh in yards. It is worth noting that four of the six guys ahead of him have played an extra game, but this one seems unattainable.
21. Dolphins Under 6.5 Wins (+170)
You can’t spend your money on this one quite yet, but at 3-7, it would take a monumental change of direction for Miami to win at least seven games. Barring extreme injury, they’ll only be favored one more time this season and it will be over the Saints on Nov. 30.
40. Brock Bowers Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
With 63.8 yards per game on average and eight games left, Bowers is on pace for about 957 yards. He’s missed three games due to injury, so if this doesn’t come through, it’ll be a bad beat.
41. Brian Thomas Jr. Receiving Yards Leader (13/1)
This long shot gamble won’t happen, as Thomas is nearly 600 yards behind the leader (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and barely in the top 40.
60. Texans Under 8.5 Wins (+150)
Houston is off to a 4-5 start, so this one has the possibility to get there. The Texans are really squandering a great defense and have a very tough schedule remaining. A loss in Week 10 would have been huge, but the Jaguars choked and Houston took advantage.
61. Chargers to win AFC West (+350)
The Chargers went into Week 11 just a game back of the Broncos for the top spot in the division and also had a head-to-head win for tiebreaker purposes. This one is alive and pretty well.
80. Joe Burrow Under 4150.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Can’t officially cash this one until the end of the season, but cash it. Burrow’s absence helps JVT and really, really hurts others in the contest.
81. Jets Over 6.5 Wins (+120)
This one isn’t officially dead, but it’s on life support and it’s not looking good with the 2-7 start and a bit of a defensive fire sale at the Trade Deadline.
100. Bills Over 13.5 Wins (+255)
An alt win total, as JVT had the first pick and the “Mr. Irrelevant” pick of the draft. At 6-3, the Bills now have to run the table with eight games left.
Dave Ross
“Captain America” Dave Ross, co-host of VSiN By The Books, may have shown just a little bit of bias regarding his Dallas Cowboys over the course of the draft. But, what kind of position is he in?
2. Dak Prescott Passing Yards Leader (+850)
Prescott entered Week 11 in the top six in passing yards, trailing Daniel Jones (as we all predicted), Justin Herbert, and Drake Maye. At +850, this one looks feisty, as Dak is well within striking distance, trailing by 340 yards with a game in hand.
19. Bijan Robinson Rush Yards Leader (11/1)
It took a long time for the snake to come back around, but Dave’s risk tolerance stayed high, pulling out an 11/1 shot for the first double-digit gamble of the draft. Unfortunately, Robinson was more than 400 yards back entering Week 11.
22. Cowboys Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
Ah, yes. That familiar bias returns! At 3-5-1, this one looks unlikely and the strength of the remaining schedule makes it look even less likely.
39. Malik Nabers Over 1150.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
A bad beat here, as Nabers suffered a torn ACL and meniscus in Week 4 after accumulating 271 yards. Based on his four-game average, he’d have been right on pace to be around this number. But, his season is over and so are the chances of this pick winning.
42. Cowboys to win NFC East (+550)
Huh. A Cowboys pick! Shocking! This one will go in the burn pile as well, as the Cowboys defense faltered too much early and the Eagles are too good.
59. Rams Under 8.5 Wins (+200)
Did I mention that Dave is also the host of our MMA podcast, First Strike? Something good to keep in mind, as he gives out a lot of good UFC thoughts.
62. Seahawks Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
Ah, here we go. That’s more like it. The Seahawks already had seven wins entering Week 11. The schedule moving forward isn’t overly easy and five of the eight games are on the road, but this team is a metrics darling and should at least get to 9-8.
79. George Pickens Over 5.5 Receiving TDs (+100)
You know what, my apologies to Dave for being a little cheeky earlier. This is one of only three bets in the competition to be decided before Week 11. Pickens had six TDs in the first nine weeks. A sharp bet, indeed.
82. Seahawks to win NFC West (+550)
Again, Mr. Ross, no relation to Betsy Ross that I know of, which would be way too fitting for our ex-Marine, coming on strong in the later rounds. This would be a great cash in the contest if Seattle can keep this up. All bets were either $100 (on + wagers) or to win $100 (on – wagers). This was +125 as of Monday, Nov. 10.
99. Commanders Under 9.5 Wins (+105)
And look at this! It might be a 4-for-4 finish for Dave! The Commanders were 3-7 entering Week 11 and Jayden Daniels is not in good shape these days. This is a great ticket to have in pocket and Dave got some fine values in the second half of the draft.
Stormy Buonantony
As an ESPN college football sideline reporter and the co-host of Money Moves, you may not see the spirited, competitive side of Stormy all that often, but if she’s in something, she’s in it to win it. How do her chances look as of now?
3. 49ers to win NFC West (+150)
I harped on Dave Ross’s biases and Stormy’s childhood favorite just so happened to be her first pick. San Francisco has as good of a shot as anybody in the division (anybody not named Arizona, anyway) and this bet is plenty live, though they 49ers were +1100 as of Monday, Nov. 10.
18. Chiefs to win AFC West (-120)
Entering Week 11, the Chiefs were 2.5 games back of the Broncos after getting off to a slow start. It’ll take some work for this one to get there.
23. Jonathan Taylor Rush Yards Leader (10/1)
This was only the second double-digit shot of the draft and this one is a home run. Taylor obviously has to stay healthy, and James Cook was on a stronger pace as of the start of Week 10 because his team was already on the bye, but at 10/1, you have to be thrilled with how this one is lining up. Taylor entered Week 11 up by more than 200 yards.
38. Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-130)
Except for Mitch and Pauly on their regular Follow The Money time slot, the participating hosts were remote. There’s no telling if Stormy’s husband, Cris, a North Carolina native, was pressuring her off-screen to make this pick or not, but it’s looking pretty good.
43. Ashton Jeanty 10+ Rushing TDs (+140)
The Raiders might not get 10+ rushing TDs as a team, let alone get 10 of them from one player. But, entering Week 10, Jeanty did have all three that the Raiders had. Still, he has a long, long way to go, even picking up his fourth in that Thursday Night Football game against the Broncos. This one has life.
58. Jared Goff Passing Yards Leader (12/1)
Another dice roll on a double-digit price here. This one doesn’t look as great as the Taylor pick, though, as Goff is having a decent season, but he entered Week 11 eighth among QB with nine games played, along with trailing three guys with nine games played.
63. Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins (+105)
A really nice plus-money price here, as Kyler Murray will spend the second half of November doing nothing except playing the new Call of Duty game. While this one isn’t a lock yet, there are almost certainly not six wins left for Arizona with their schedule.
78. Titans Over 5.5 Wins (-170)
A tough pill to swallow here because of the vig. The Cam Ward era is not off to an inspiring start in Nashville.
83. Packers Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
An admirable shot, especially with an oft-injured roster, but this one looks up against it a little bit. At the same time, a 5-3-1 record doesn’t make 10 wins a lock by any means and that tie could be the difference.
98. Garrett Wilson Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Health means so much with player props. Wilson still has the chance to get over this with a bad team that will be trailing a ton, but through nine weeks, he was under 400 receiving yards and he left the Week 10 game hurt.
Gill Alexander
The host of A Numbers Game had a plan and executed it, but the problem is that in order to put up numbers, players have to play.
4. Falcons to win NFC South (+240)
The NFC South remains very up for grabs, but Atlanta is not really part of the race. That could always change, as the Falcons defense has been terrific, but the offense has not.
17. Ja’Marr Chase Receiving TDs Leader (+600)
Chase doesn’t even lead his team, as Tee Higgins has that distinction. A player of Chase’s caliber can obviously go on a run, but can he do so with Joe Flacco?
24. Lions to win NFC North (+160)
The NFC North is also very much up for grabs, but the Lions, unlike the Falcons in their division, are in the running and they definitely have the chance to win it. This one still has a good chance and the Lions were -160 favorites as of Monday, Nov. 10.
37. Joe Burrow Over 4150.5 Passing Yards (-120)
As I said, players have to play. Burrow isn’t playing and this one’s not going to get there.
44. Joe Burrow Over 33.5 Passing TDs (-115)
And here’s another one tied to Burrow. The Chase one was as well. It is tough to win this contest with overexposure on a player who suffered a long-term injury.
57. Colts Under 6.5 Wins (+150)
The other bet already officially decided at this stage of the game. The Colts won seven games in the first nine weeks of the contest. Gill joins Dave Ross with having a bet determined, but, unfortunately, his is on the wrong side.
64. Cardinals Over 8.5 Wins (-125)
Not officially decided, but with Kyler plugged into Call of Duty and a brutal schedule left to go, a 6-2 finish for Arizona would be extremely shocking.
77. Vikings Under 9.5 Wins (-125)
It has been a lot of doom and gloom with Gill’s set of selections here, but this one looks very promising. The Vikings split their first eight games and don’t look like a team mobilized to go on a big second half run, as they fell to 4-5 in Week 10.
84. Trey Hendrickson Sack Leader (11/1)
Hendrickson has missed a little bit of time, but he’s fallen victim to the rest of the Bengals defense this season, as he only had four sacks through nine weeks. Two players – Brian Burns and Myles Garrett – were in double digits by that point. Gill will not be sending any holiday cards to Cincinnati this year.
97. Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-125)
The fandom of our hosts appeared once again, as Gill’s final pick was to take his favorite NFL team to exceed expectations. That does not appear to be the case, as a 3-7 start to the season dug a very big hole.
Tim Murray
The VSiN Primetime host and former Muhlenberg Mule had the fifth pick in our Futures Draft, which is a pretty good spot to be. But, did he take advantage of being in the middle?
5. Jaguars to win AFC South (+300)
A swing out of the gate and probably a miss because the Colts are suddenly one of the best teams in the NFL. But, a worthwhile gamble, given that Daniel Jones is having an out-of-body experience to lead Indy.
16. Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards Leader (+600)
Perhaps Tim took this pick from Gill, who wound up on Chase as receiving TD leader at the same odds. Even with the Burrow injury, this one is alive, as Chase trailed Jaxon Smith-Njigba by 210 yards entering Week 11 and JSN left Week 10 hurt. If nothing else, the volume is there, as Chase leads the league in targets.
25. Bengals Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
A quasi-hedge here from the big man? A correlated play expecting the Bengals to trail a lot? Either way, this one looks extremely promising with the Bengals at 3-6 entering Week 11. Even if Joe Burrow is on schedule to come back early.
36. Vikings to win NFC North (+300)
JJ McCarthy’s early-season injury didn’t help here, but the Vikings are well behind the Lions and Packers and this one goes on the burn pile.
45. Dak Prescott Over 4,000 Passing Yards (+100)
Health is the only thing that could derail this one, as Prescott is on track for about 4,400 passing yards. But, you can never take a player prop Over for granted.
56. Jaguars Over 8.5 Wins (+140)
Correlation with the Jags bet from Round 1. Jacksonville is trending on the right side of the 9-8/8-9 bubble, but this one would’ve been much more promising without that aforementioned collapse in Week 10.
65. 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (+110)
Kyle Shanahan’s crew continues to navigate a variety of injuries, but this one has hope, even with the Rams and Seahawks playing at an extremely high level. The 49ers need to go 5-3 the rest of the way to get there and that seems feasible enough to be happy about holding plus money here.
76. Eagles Under 11.5 Wins (-130)
Twelve wins is a lot, but the Eagles have a chance to get there. They entered Monday Night Football in Week 10 at 6-2 and the Tush Push hasn’t been outlawed yet.
85. Breece Hall Under 900.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
A bit of an off-the-board player prop selection here, as Hall doesn’t rank up there with the others that have been part of this exercise. Even on a very bad football team, Hall has been a bright spot, as he’s trending towards crossing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He has some margin for error on this, too, so long as he stays healthy.
96. Brock Bowers Receptions Leader (10/1)
This bet requires health for all 17 games and Bowers has not had that. As of Week 11, he was outside the top 50 in receptions.
Jensen Lewis
The newest of the VSiN hosts to be involved in this contest, the former MLB reliever and VSiN By The Books co-host is no stranger to competition. Also, he has some experience as a closer. Does that mean he’ll finish strong here?
6. Giants Under 5.5 Wins (-105)
This one looked scary for a little while, but it has a strong chance now. Brian Daboll has been fired. Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo are out. Jaxson Dart has played like a Crash Test Dummy. This one is very promising.
15. Bills to win AFC East (-310)
This one might not taste good going down. The chalky nature of it might help with some of the heartburn from what looks like a Patriots division title, but there’s still a lot of time left.
26. Ravens to win AFC North (-165)
The odds made this look like a bad bet with how the Ravens started the season, but Baltimore entered Week 11 one game behind Pittsburgh for the top spot in the worst division in football and neither head-to-head meeting had been played yet. And Baltimore was -245 as of Monday, Nov. 10.
35. Jahmyr Gibbs Over 1,075.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Entering Week 11, Gibbs was on pace for over 1,300 rushing yards, so this one is tracking nicely. As with any player prop, it’s all about health.
46. Brian Thomas Jr. Over 1,150.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Thomas is well behind this pace, as Liam Coen looks more and more irritated with Trevor Lawrence with each passing week. Thomas did miss a game, which hasn’t helped the cause, but he’s not having the season most thought he would.
55. Eagles Over 10.5 Wins (-180)
An alt win total here with some more of that chalky taste, but Philly is well on their way to 11+ victories. Figures that a former pro baseball player would be okay with chalk lines.
66. Jets Under 6.5 Wins (-145)
The Jets could play another 17 games and maybe not get to seven wins. This one should cruise home with a 2-7 start to the season.
75. Ravens Over 11.5 Wins (-115)
This one? Not so much. The Ravens have to win out to cash this one, so you can throw it on the burn pile. Probably.
86. Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Leader (12/1)
Cleveland boys stick together, eh? Mayfield is pretty far off the pace here, but still ranked in the top 10 entering Week 11, even with the losses of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan. A good effort, and he might be in the MVP discussion, but he won’t cash this barring some sort of absurd pace the rest of the way.
95. Jalen Hurts Rushing TDs Leader (+550)
In a world where Jonathan Taylor doesn’t exist, maybe this one has a chance. Alas, it doesn’t, as Hurts doesn’t even lead QBs in rushing scores.
Patrick Meagher
Patrick was on the panel for more than just his looks, as the dapper handicapper tested his mettle representing his VSiN Live on Mad Dog Radio show. Former VLMDR co-host Dustin Swedelson was our esteemed host for this exercise and “The Big Guy” did an excellent job. Also, you can catch Patrick with Mike Somich on Sharp Money.
7. Texans to win AFC South (+105)
The Daniel Jones Experience is trippier than the Jimi Hendrix Experience, but it is a real thing and a big reason why the Texans won’t win this division, as they sit 3.5 games back entering Week 11.
14. Rams to win NFC West (+195)
Mr. Meagher may have totally redeemed himself here with the Rams, who look like one of the NFC’s juggernauts. If the Seahawks would slow down, the Rams would look even stronger here. The two teams play in Week 11 and that’s a big game for Patrick’s pick.
27. Texans Over 10.5 Wins (+180)
Here we see some more strategy in play, as Texans to win the AFC South and this alt win total had a good chance at coming in together prior to the season, but that’s not the case now.
34. Patriots Under 7.5 Wins (+150)
The hype about the Patriots entering the season seems to be warranted, as this one has already lost. So far, decided bets are 1-2 in the contest heading into Week 11.
47. Jonathan Taylor Rush TDs Leader (13/1)
Whoa, ho, ho. This is a big-ticket price on a bet that looks simply stellar right now. A 13/1 cash without getting crushed on the other nine picks might be enough to take this thing down and Taylor is a good bit clear of the field at present. What a call here!
54. Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Receiving TDs (-150)
Nacua is having a huge season with the Rams, but he’s still short of this number. Nacua entered Week 11 with four receiving scores and plenty of time to get two more.
67. Packers Over 10.5 Wins (+155)
That pesky tie against the Cowboys throws a wrench into this one, but Green Bay still has a chance to get to 11 wins. Five of their six division games remain, though, so we’ll see if they can get there.
74. Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-105)
The ballsiest bet of the entire contest. You may have heard that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers head coach. I’m no mathematician, but Under 8.5 would mean finishing 8-9 or lower. Pittsburgh is trending towards mediocrity, so this number may hang in the balance all the way to the end.
87. Baker Mayfield Pass TDs Leader (+950)
Baker is having an excellent season, but he’s not going to get there with this one. Injuries really haven’t helped. If it’s any consolation to Patrick, Mayfield’s taken great care of the football.
94. Drake London Over 1,125.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Mitch Moss took London as the receiving yards leader at 15/1, which may have been Meagher’s path, but he had to pivot. London is on track to go Over this number, but he probably won’t lead the league, so Patrick may have lucked out.
Mitch Moss
One half of the Follow The Money crew and shout-out to Mitch’s producer, Luke DiVasta, for overseeing these shenanigans and also for the handy, dandy spreadsheet I’ve used to update how things are going. Mitch is also the co-host of Pod to the Futures, by the way.
8. Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+145)
This is one on life support, as the Bears started with a 6-3 record through 10 weeks. That doesn’t mean it can’t get there, but Chicago avoiding disaster against the Giants in Week 10 was hurtful.
13. Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (+125)
The inverse of 6-3 is 3-6 and that’s what the Falcons were through 10 weeks. The defense has been nine-win caliber. The offense has been, well, you see the record.
28. Cardinals to win NFC West (+425)
An admirable gamble here, but between Kyler Murray’s addiction to his couch and controller, the stacked nature of the division, and a Cardinals team that just isn’t good enough yet, this one is on the burn pile.
33. Bucky Irving Over 1,250 Rushing Yards (+275)
Injuries are a killer and that’s the case here, as Rachaad White leads the Bucs in rushing yards and Irving entered Week 10 outside the top 50 with only four games played.
48. Commanders to win NFC East (+220)
Another plus-money price on the burn pile. There are a lot of strategies to something like this and Mitch opted to go higher-risk, higher-reward with the plus prices. Jayden Daniels’ injuries didn’t help here either.
53. CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Leader (10/1)
Stop me if you’ve heard this already with Mitch’s picks…Lamb hasn’t stayed healthy, playing just six of Dallas’ first nine games. George Pickens has also been the go-to guy for Dak Prescott.
68. Vikings Over 9.5 Wins (+105)
I’m reaching for some good news on this list, but another injury, this one to JJ McCarthy, put this one behind the 8-ball a bit. Also, what’s the deal with Brian Flores’ defense? It’s not a lost cause, as 6-2 is hardly impossible the rest of the way, but you’d like a lot more than +105 now.
73. Bills Under 11.5 Wins (+145)
Alright, now we’re talkin’! The Bills look likely to fall short of expectations, as they’d need a 6-2 close to get this one. It is plenty doable with the schedule, but losing to Miami in Week 10 really, really hurt on that front. If it comes down to Week 18, Buffalo does host the Jets, so that’s the hope for Mitch now.
88. Tetairoa McMillan Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (+170)
Another plus-money price, as you see the strategy in play some more. So long as McMillan can stay healthy, this one will be a winner, as he had over 600 yards just past the halfway point of the season.
93. Drake London Receiving Yards Leader (15/1)
Staying consistent with the theme, Mitch took a swing here with London. Sadly, Big Ben is chiming because it’s midnight on this one in all likelihood, as London missed a game and that really hurt, as he entered Week 11 second among receivers with eight games played. He still has a shot, but needs injuries and a lot of help to get there.
Matt Youmans
Our wily veteran and part of the VSiN Primetime hosting rotation had the ninth pick here, as Youmans was in the unenviable position of picking twice quickly and then waiting a while to make another selection. That said, there are some advantages to that. Did Matt take advantage of them?
9. Joe Burrow Passing Yards Leader (+500)
Well, this one was unfortunate. Matt took the second swing of the contest on a stat leader (Ross, 2nd) and Burrow’s injury ruined any chance of this one.
12. Broncos to win AFC West (+275)
While that 5/1 is on the burn pile, this +275 is very much in the running. Denver’s dominant defense has been enough to overcome a pretty lackluster first half from Bo Nix. If Sean Payton gets the offense going, this one should be a winner.
29. Browns Under 5.5 Wins (-140)
After the long wait, Youmans picked on the depressing Browns, who are not going to get to 6-11. They shouldn’t. It’s F*** Up For Fernando season. Or whichever QB they want to draft and set up for failure.
32. Broncos Over 9.5 Wins (-110)
Correlation at play again. Take a shot with the Broncos at the big price early and look to pad the bet with the Broncos win total later. As of Week 11, Denver only needs two more dubs to cash this one.
49. Ashton Jeanty Over 1,050.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Raiders stink and their stink has permeated Jeanty, who has under four yards per carry this season. He’s gotten the volume, but hasn’t had the running room. He’s on pace for just over 1,030 yards, so this one still has a shot, even with the slow start.
52. Burrow Passing TDs Leader (+550)
That correlation concept in play, as Matt also started with Burrow to lead the league in passing. Once again, that injury really shook up a lot of these markets and this draft.
69. Josh Jacobs Over 1,050.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
A nice pick here at No. 69 for Youmans, as Jacobs is on track to top this number and the Packers project to be a team that should be running in the second halves of games a good bit the rest of the way.
72. Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (-115)
Did you know that Mike Tomlin… Of course you did.
89. Patriots to win AFC East (+500)
This may be the pick of the contest. Getting this one after 88 other things were selected was an astute grab and the Patriots look well on their way to their first AFC East title without Tom Brady in forever. This feels like a pick that could determine the winner of this shindig.
92. Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins (-120)
Backing it up with this was another fine grab in the late rounds. Youmans’ last pick needs to go 7-1 or better to be a loser. That seems like a terrific situation to be in.
Pauly Howard
The other half of Follow The Money was at the tail end of the snake, meaning back-to-back picks throughout the contest. It also meant a long time between picks for somebody on the desk under the hot TV lights. Undeterred, Pauly made his picks. How do things stand?
10. Buccaneers to win NFC South (+110)
In retrospect, this looks like such a good price. The Panthers are providing some token opposition, but this looks like a +1.1 winner.
11. Saints Under 5.5 Wins (-165)
The irony is that New Orleans beating Carolina in Week 10 made the previous pick look a lot better, but hurt this one a tad. That said, do the Saints really have four more wins left in them over the final seven games? That seems unlikely.
30. Packers to win NFC North (+240)
A solid price under the circumstances, though the Bears are better than expected and that means the Packers have to fight off two challengers. Again, it’s that pesky tie. We really need to eliminate ties in the NFL.
31. Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-130)
The correlation concept in play again, as this one has more direct correlation than the previous two, but you can see the interdivision strategy employed by Pauly here. The Lions are probably going to flirt with going Over this number for a while. A true undecided wager in this contest.
50. Derrick Henry Rush TDs Leader (+450)
It would take a lot for Henry to get within striking distance of the leaders. Lamar Jackson’s injury didn’t help here.
51. Buccaneers Over 9.5 Wins (-105)
Correlation again! This one harkens back to the first play on the Bucs to win the NFC South, as they could absolutely do it at 9-8 (hell, even 8-9), but it seems like 10-7 or better is a safe record to expect from a division champ. Tampa Bay is on a good pace for this one, especially navigating the injuries that they have.
70. Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (+100)
There aren’t many stiffs on Pauly’s list, but this is one of them. KC going 7-1 is hardly impossible, but it is improbable.
71. DK Metcalf 1000+ Receiving Yards (+100)
At the midpoint of the season, Metcalf was slightly below this pace, tracking for around 950 yards. It might be up to old man Rodgers and how his arm holds up.
90. Jayden Daniels Over 3,450.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Injuries. Again.
91. Cam Ward Interceptions Leader (9/1)
The Titans are bad, but Ward has taken okay care of the football. With Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith in double digits by Week 11, Ward (6) would have to be really bad to get into this discussion.
Summary
Tl;dr, right? Imagine writing it.
I’d rank the entries like this as of now:
- Youmans
- Meagher
- Buonantony
- Ross
- Von Tobel
- Lewis
- Murray
- Howard
- Moss
- Alexander
Even with two Burrow props, Youmans could hit two strong division winners and his win totals look strong.
Meagher has the big price on Taylor to lead the league in Rush TDs at 13/1 and can afford some other bets losing at that point, which it looks like could be the case.
Similarly, Buonantony is sitting pretty with Taylor at 10/1 to lead the league in Rushing Yards and that will help out some of the wagers that won’t come in.
Ross doesn’t have the big Taylor ticket, but does have Seahawks at +550 and four strong picks to finish things, with Prescott also still live for most passing yards.
The others are going to need a lot of things to fall their way the rest of the way.
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