The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season features the Green Bay Packers hosting the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Saints vs. Packers

When: Monday, December 23rd at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin

Channel: ABC/ESPN

Saints vs. Packers Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 22nd. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Packers -900, Saints +600

Spread: Packers -14 (-110), Saints +14 (-110)

Total: Over 42 (-112), Under 42 (-108)

Saints vs. Packers Analysis

Most of the action in the Monday night game is on the Packers, according to our VSiN DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page. Whether it’s laying the 14, teasing the number or throwing Green Bay in moneyline parlays, it’s clear that there isn’t much public belief in New Orleans.

It’s hard to come up with reasons to back the Saints. The Packers are eighth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.090), and the Saints are just 21st (-0.027). The team also happens to be without Derek Carr, and the offensive numbers would be way worse without the few games Carr has played this year. Also, Green Bay is sixth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.053). New Orleans is just 15th (0.005). This Packers team is elite on both sides of the ball. The group is also much healthier than the Saints, and Green Bay is also very difficult to beat at Lambeau Field. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 39-12 straight-up and 31-20 against the spread at home.

However, it is worth noting that Green Bay is just 3-3 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more under LaFleur. The team has also never been favored by 14 or more. Spencer Rattler also happened to look pretty sharp when he came in against the Commanders last week. The rookie threw for 135 yards and a touchdown after Jake Haener got the start against Washington. Rattler actually gave the Saints a chance to win that game. And overall, even without Alvin Kamara, this New Orleans team is talented enough to keep this game from getting way out of hand if Rattler can avoid mistakes. The team hasn’t yet rolled over, as the players like interim head coach Darren Rizzi. All of that makes it a little hard to lay the huge number with the Packers.

If you have to play a side or a total in this game, you might want to go with the Under. The Under is 4-1 in the five games New Orleans has played under Rizzi, and the Saints have scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games. I don’t see an offensive explosion coming against this defense, especially in freezing cold conditions. Similarly, I don’t see the Packers lighting up the scoreboard. They have scored at least 30 points in four straight games, but the last two games were on the road. It’ll be a little harder to move the ball with this weather, and the Saints aren’t awful defensively. New Orleans will also try and do whatever it can to keep the clock moving and prevent Jordan Love and Co. from getting on the field.

Saints vs. Packers Player Props

Josh Jacobs Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-128)

This total is as high as 21.5 in some places, so dealing with the juice on the Over might make sense. The reason Green Bay got Jacobs is so that the team can hammer away with him when it gets cold. Jacobs just rushed 26 times in a win over Seattle, and I’d be pretty surprised if the Packers don’t get him at least 20 touches here. While the Saints have a solid defense, only three teams in the league are worse when it comes to Rush EPA per play allowed (0.007). So, it makes a lot of sense for Green Bay to give Jacobs as many chances as possible to break big runs. That will also open up the passing game later on.

Saints vs. Packers Pick

It’s hard not to view the Under as the best play in a game like this one. It’s just hard to imagine the Saints having success offensively, especially if it ends up snowing. And I’m not sure the Green Bay gameplan will call for a ton of Love. Also, under LaFleur, the Under is 11-7-1 in the games the Packers have played against teams with winning percentages of 25.0% to 40.0%.

Lean: Under 42.5 (-110)

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