Schein 9 NFL:

My favorite weekend in sports lived up to the hype.

Now, how about the epic sizzle we have for Championship Sunday?

 

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Here are our plays, picks, and midweek musings, Schein 9 style:

1. Bills Due

It’s time. Really, it’s time. It’s Josh Allen’s time to shine and beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. We know Allen and the Bills can beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season. We just saw it this year in Week 11’s 30-21 Buffalo win, where Allen played brilliantly and scampered to the game-clinching touchdown on 4th down. We’ve seen Allen play brilliantly in the playoffs at Arrowhead, going back to the 2021 42-36 classic and overtime thriller. If only Sean McDermott had squibbed the kick with 13 seconds left in regulation.

Consider the eight meetings between the quarterbacks, where the teams and signal-callers are even at 4-4. The Bills have scored more points and gained more total yards. Allen has more total touchdowns and fewer turnovers than Mahomes head-to-head. We don’t need an educated guess—we’ve seen it. Sure, Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, including the home divisional loss last year. But Allen has always risen to the moment against Mahomes.

The KC offense has been stuck in the mud this year. Allen has had the more dominant season. The Bills’ defense was remarkable against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, creating three turnovers and shutting down Derrick Henry and Jackson on the ground. I love the way the Bills are playing, channeling the disrespect. Bills moneyline +105 to get to the Super Bowl. It’s way past time. Bills Mafia deserves it. I am foaming at the mouth for this historic AFC Championship Sunday matchup.

2. Can’t Pass Up

Our quarterback-related plays for this one:

  • Josh Allen anytime touchdown at +100. He’ll run one, maybe two, in.
  • I also like the Over on Allen passing yards at 228.5 (-115). The game plan has to be aggressive—put it on Superman’s back in Arrowhead.
  • Related: give me the Under 251.5 for Mahomes’ passing yards at -110.

3. Play Bills (and Chiefs)

  • I really dig the Over for Khalil Shakir’s receiving yards at 56.5. The king of YAC and the deep ball will strike.
  • Noah Gray Over 12.5 receiving yards at -110.
  • Playoff Kelce is real. I’ll take Travis Kelce anytime touchdown at +125.
  • James Cook Over 14.5 receiving yards.

4. Jayden “Magic”

When I watch Jayden Daniels play quarterback, he reminds me of Magic Johnson. He feels no pressure. He’s a brilliant, versatile talent and leader. I learned my lesson picking Tampa in the Wild Card round: you can’t bet against Daniels in the playoffs. So we didn’t.

I thought Detroit would win playing at home after the bye. But Daniels has inspired this entire organization. Jayden Daniels getting six in Philadelphia? Oh, heck yeah. Daniels is better than Jalen Hurts.

Just like with Mahomes and Allen, you don’t have to guess if Daniels can beat Philly—he already did it this year. The two NFC East teams split their games, with Daniels and the Commanders winning the latest round 36-33 in Week 16. Daniels was third in EPA/blitz this season. The Eagles love to bring the heat, and their second-highest blitz rate this year was against Daniels in Week 16, where the rookie went 10/15 for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Philly blitz. Last week against the Lions, Daniels went 12/16 for 191 yards, a touchdown, zero sacks, and zero turnovers against Detroit’s blitz.

Plus, Terry McLaurin is fantastic. Kliff Kingsbury is in his bag calling plays. The Washington defense has truly surprised me this postseason. And Jalen Hurts is both not 100% healthy and struggling with the forward pass.

The Eagles are the better team, playing at home with a dominant run game. I like Philadelphia to win. But road teams are 2-8 straight up this postseason, and both wins belong to Daniels. This year, the Commanders have six wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation or overtime—the most in a single season since 2000 (including playoffs). Daniels doesn’t feel pressure. He applies it. I have to grab the points with Daniels.

5. Loud Bark

Saquon Barkley showed off his game-changing skills against the Rams, like he has all year. That Philadelphia offensive line is special, but against Washington in the regular season, Barkley carved the Commanders up for 296 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. There’s no reason to believe that will change. The number is “high,” but I’m not remotely nervous: Barkley Over 129.5 rushing yards for Championship Sunday at -129.

6. Catch It

I’ve stayed away from Eagles receivers for prop bets and DFS plays this postseason, and it’s worked. I regretted not playing Terry McLaurin in DFS during the Wild Card round. I racked up 180.6 points in the divisional round stacking McLaurin and Daniels—much better.

The Eagles’ secondary is so tough, but I like the Over on McLaurin receiving yards at 64.5. And how about his longest reception Over 23.5 at -115?

7. Super Matchup

Two weeks ago on Make It Rain on VSiN, we said our favorite Super Bowl matchup bet was Eagles vs. Bills at +850—and we played it. Now, it’s +175. Just sayin’…

8. Bear It

When the news broke on Monday’s sizzling edition of Make It Rain that the Bears got their man, Ben Johnson, we called it a massive coup. I argued for Johnson to coach the Bears at this time last year.

With the long list of candidates, the Bears’ history of being cheap, and the Raiders’ possibility looming, skepticism was mounting. Instead, credit Bears ownership, Kevin Warren, and Ryan Poles for getting the best play-caller in the game to team with their young stud quarterback. There’s no reason to believe the Bears can’t win playoff games with the Johnson/Williams ticket and have Washington-like success. Frankly, that’s the standard.

9. Ain’t Lion

The Lions losing at home, favored by 8.5 points to Washington, was a nightmare. Losing Johnson and likely defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn makes it even worse.

Chicago is officially in the mix. Green Bay is solid. The Vikings, who rightly locked up Kevin O’Connell to a long-term deal, will be back with either Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy at quarterback. This was a dreadful three days in Detroit, raising real questions about whether the Dan Campbell/Jared Goff Lions can survive losing in the divisional round and then the brain drain of assistant coaches. It’s fair to wonder aloud: if not now, when for the Lions?

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