Schein 9 NFL Week 12:

We went 9-5 against the spread last week! The Broncos’ Over cashed!

Yet I can’t stop thinking about pulling Joe Mixon for Kyren Williams in DFS and swapping Khalil Shakir for Travis Kelce at the same price. Maybe I can’t stop thinking about it because Theo Schein won more money and keeps reminding me.

 

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Time for our midweek musings and plays, Schein 9 style.

1. No Joshin’ Around

Jim Nantz said it perfectly on the brilliant NFL on CBS coverage of the game of the year between the Chiefs and Bills. When Sean McDermott smartly went for it on fourth-and-2 to win and Josh Allen took off with a burst of speed and power looking like the John Elway-meets-Paul Bunyan combination that he is, rocking 26 yards, stiff-arming Chiefs en route to the dagger score, Nantz called it the play of the year in the NFL. That was Allen’s MVP moment. 

It was a monster win for the Bills, handing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Vegas oddsmakers clearly agreed with me moving Allen to the top spot of the MVP odds. Allen, my preseason pick, had been in my top three all year, very close to being No. 1. That changed Sunday with Lamar Jackson playing poorly in Pittsburgh and Allen’s heroics against the Chiefs. The season is far from over. The Bills have a tough remaining schedule and surely will lose again. But when considering the talent around him, his domination and the definition of the word value, there is a great chance that Allen grabs the award. I hope you got him preseason or when he wasn’t the favorite.

2. The Joe Burrow Awards Conundrum 

As you know, I’m one of the 50 voters for the NFL awards and it’s a responsibility I take seriously. When you win, you are wonderfully stamped in history forever. Which leads me to the Joe Burrow conundrum. With everything I just said about Allen, I think Burrow has been the best quarterback in the NFL this year. As we speak, he would get a vote from me for first-team All-Pro. Burrow, Jackson and Allen are all worthy. 

In fact, Burrow has lost three games this year with 300+ passing yards, three or more touchdown passes and zero picks. That’s the most by a quarterback since the merger in 1970. 

How about this nugget courtesy of my guy Jacob Kaye: Players to achieve 3,000 or more passing yards, 27 plus touchdowns and four or fewer interceptions through the first 11 games, along with their team’s final records: 

Tom Brady (2007, 2015): 16-0, 13-3; Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2020): 15-1, 13-3; Patrick Mahomes (2020): 14-2; Drew Brees (2018): 13-3.

Burrow has 3,028 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and four picks for the 4-7 Bengals. 

Think about it.

Burrow is currently 20-1 for MVP. I cannot see myself giving a first-place MVP vote to a player on a non-playoff team when 14 teams make it. Frankly, I would be hard-pressed to even consider an MVP vote from a sub-.500 team. But if the Bengals find a way to make the playoffs, that’s a different conversation. If you think they make a run, and they have Pittsburgh twice and a monster game against Denver, you should probably get in now at 20-1. The Bengals are 4-7. Is it Burrow’s fault? Absolutely not. Defense. Coaching. The kicker can’t kick. The refs in the Bengals’ loss to the Chiefs. The Bengals’ preseason nonsense with contracts before losing to the Patriots in the opener. But offensive player of the year should be in play for Burrow. And I could see him finding a way on my MVP ballot if the team finishes above .500.

3. Jet Fail

First Robert Saleh got fired. Now general manager Joe Douglas was shown the door after a disastrous 30-64 run as the general manager. Douglas’ failures start at quarterback. I was very loud in 2021 that Zach Wilson was a terrible pick and the Jets should trade down for multiple first-rounders/additional picks. Or take Ja’Marr Chase at 2. I would’ve traded down, kept Sam Darnold, picked Chase, DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts Micah Parsons, Patrick Surtain, Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater. The class was loaded with non-quarterbacks. Again — first-guess. 

Then keeping Wilson as Aaron Rodgers’ backup and not cutting your losses was ill-fated. And if Douglas checked his ego and had a real backup, they could’ve salvaged last season. Of course, there was Mekhi Becton over Tristan Wirfs, trading for Haason Reddick without a deal, hiring Robert Saleh. And for the sake of fairness, it always starts with the fact that Woody Johnson is one of the worst owners in sports. 

Vegas loved this Jets team preseason. I loved this Jets team preseason. What a total failure.

4. Broncos Cash

I tried to tell you on my very first day of “Make it Rain with Adam Schein” that the bet of the year in the NFL was Broncos Over 5.5 wins at -140. It was stealing money. A Sean Payton-coached team can beat anyone. It’s that simple. And I loved Payton handpicking Bo Nix as his quarterback. Forget draft grades. It’s marrying a quarterback and head coach and play caller. I was stunned so many smart people missed this.

Now Nix has the second-best odds for offensive rookie of the year. Patrick Surtain is in my top 3 for defensive player of the year. Sean Payton top 3 for coach of the year. And Denver is a year ahead of schedule with a great opportunity to make the playoffs. They smoked the Falcons. It’s a rivalry game this week against the Raiders. No chance they overlook them. Give me Denver laying the (ironically enough) 5.5. It’s apparently Denver’s magic number.

5. Pit-iful Pick 

I nailed it on Denver, not so much Pittsburgh. I was dead wrong on the win total and everything for months with Russell Wilson. It’s my show, my column, so I’ll take ownership. But obviously Vegas was alongside for the ride and projections here, including last week against the Ravens. Baltimore was favored by 3 in Pittsburgh — and I understood why! When Derrick Henry fumbled on the Ravens’ first drive, I knew it would be a long day. 

Baltimore’s three future Hall of Famers, Henry, Lamar Jackson and Justin Tucker were all well below standard. Pittsburgh’s defense flew around and flummoxed Jackson. Normally, a short week against Cleveland would be ripe for the Mike Tomlin trap game. Not with the way the Steelers are playing. And the Browns are a mess. I will lay the 4.5 and take Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 8-2 against the spread this season, 4-0 both straight up and against the spread with Russell Wilson.

6. Vegas Ain’t Lion

We joked but were dead serious last week that the spread could’ve been Lions -44 instead of -14 and I still would’ve picked Detroit over the Jaguars. After that 52-6 pasting, the Lions officially became the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl in Vegas, as we have been saying for weeks now. There will be challenges. Jared Goff might not measure up in every head-to-head QB matchup. But the Lions are a brilliantly loaded and well-coached and put-together football team that can win any style of fight. Sure, Philly can scare them. Josh Allen, too. I just can’t back anyone else now and haven’t for months.

7. Giant Mess

It’s the end of an ERROR as the Giants have glued Daniel Jones to the bench because of his inability to play the position of quarterback and a $23 million injury guarantee for next year if he gets hurt playing. Jones will never play again for the Giants. It’s a miracle it lasted this long. I have been forever outspoken against the arrogant and ignorant Dave Gettleman picking Jones sixth in the 2019 draft. I completely disagreed with the new brass of GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll giving Jones a megabuck multi-year deal after Jones played well in Year 1 for them. It was flukish, proved by getting smoked in the divisional round against the Eagles. They botched the 2023 offseason with Jones and Saquon Barkley and it has sunk the organization.

Tommy DeVito will start for the Giants to appease the fans and tank without saying it out loud. They tried this last year and it failed miserably when DeVito soared to popularity heights and shockingly won games as “Tommy Cutlets,” costing the Giants a chance to draft Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye.

8. Houston Lift-off?

Joe Mixon was sensational yet again for the Texans, running through the Cowboys on Monday night. Houston is 7-4 with the Titans and Jaguars next. But while I love coach DeMeco Ryans, something has been a tad off about Houston. C.J. Stroud hasn’t been as great as his rookie year. The offensive line has regressed. Losing Stefon Diggs for the season is a problem. They will beat the Titans and cover the 8.5-point spread (Tennessee is 1-9 ATS this year) and destroy the Jaguars after Thanksgiving. A 9-4 start is sweet, but I cannot place their odds of winning the AFC over the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Chargers or Ravens.

9. Big Chief

There’s no doubt in my mind the Chiefs will lose again. And again after that. Chargers? Broncos? Steelers? Buffalo won’t be the only loss for Andy Reid’s team this season. But a losing streak? Ha … and nah. Reid might act like a loving grandfather, but never get it twisted. He’s the best coach in football because he’s tough and demands accountability. The Chiefs are favored by 11 against a Panthers team that should be relegated out of the league. The Chiefs will own Carolina in the trenches and K.C. will slaughter the Panthers.

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