Schein 9 NFL Week 14:

Good thing I had Denver -5.5. What a beat on Monday night! I’m still not over Brandon Aubrey missing the field goal in Week 4 against the Giants. So I get it.

The Broncos are going to make the playoffs. Bo Nix has a real shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Sean Payton is very much in the Coach of the Year conversation. It’s their Time to Schein. And just wait until they beat the Chiefs in Week 18.

 

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December football is here—firings, playoff implications, award separation, and congestion.

Here are our midweek musings, takes, picks, and predictions, Schein 9 style.

1. Bear It

Matt Eberflus is out. After being the worst in-game coach we’ve seen, it was time. The soul-sucking defeats, his impact on losses to Washington, Green Bay, and the national embarrassment on Thanksgiving against the Lions—enough was enough. Eberflus lost the team and lost games he should’ve won. The Bears should have made this move after last season when they hit the lottery, with the Panthers being the worst team in the league and landing the Caleb Williams golden ticket. Now, this decision sets everything back.

And they couldn’t even fire him properly. They made him do his Friday presser after ruining Thanksgiving, then canned him. Amateur hour. Then Kevin Warren and Ryan Poles held an awkward Monday presser where Warren called the Bears job “the best opening.” Ok, we’ll work with that, but we’re holding Warren to it. Chicago is a tremendous city, a great sports town, and football rules even when Michael Jordan was playing—just ask the Cubs and Blackhawks. So now, pay up.

Historically, Chicago has hired B- or C-level assistants. Mike Vrabel should be the top choice. He’s excellent in-game and gets teams to overachieve. Pay him and keep him from going to Vegas or Ohio State. He instantly makes you a playoff team. I don’t fully believe Ben Johnson wants to be a head coach, but it’s worth exploring. If not him, then names like Kliff Kingsbury and Marcus Freeman make sense. But if the Bears don’t get Vrabel or Johnson, don’t be surprised if interim coach Thomas Brown becomes a real candidate. Brown is highly respected, commands a team, and Caleb Williams is thriving under his watchful eye.

To bring it full circle: The Bears, both on the field and in the front office, have been a clown show. Find a way to hire the best candidate—Vrabel—for the “best vacancy.”

2. Numbers Lion?

The trends say lay the points with the Lions -3.5 against the Packers in Thursday’s NFC North showdown. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six against Green Bay, 9-3 ATS this season (tied with Pittsburgh for best in the league), and 4-0 ATS and straight up in primetime under Dan Campbell.

Having said that…

The Lions’ only loss to Green Bay was last year on Thanksgiving. The Packers have covered their last four road games on Thursdays. That’s not an accident—that’s coaching.

Look, I don’t trust Jordan Love as far as I can throw him, and he threw one of the worst passes of the year for a pick-six when these teams met in Green Bay earlier this season.

Green Bay’s defense and run game have been terrific, and Matt LaFleur is an excellent coach. Weird things happen in the division on Thursday nights. I’ll take the 3.5 with the Packers.

3. KOC OMG

Kevin O’Connell is a tremendous coach. He got my vote for Coach of the Year his first season, though it went to Brian Daboll. No regrets. Check out this nugget of domination: KOC is 24-9 (.727) in one-score games as Vikings head coach—3rd-best in NFL history (minimum of 25 games). His play selection and game management are superb, and he’s getting Kirk Cousins at the right time. Cousins has lost three straight, thrown six picks with no touchdowns, and looks flat-out lost in the process. Brian Flores’ defense should feast, and O’Connell’s offense should thrive against a Falcons defense that can’t rush the passer.

That said, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS this season. Yikes. They won but didn’t cover against the Cardinals last week. I expect Sam Darnold to thrive while Cousins continues to struggle. I’ll take the points with the Vikings.

4. Coach of the Year Bets

Locking in Coach of the Year bets during the season is tough. All 18 weeks and 17 games matter—records, seeds, achievements, and coaching. What does that last criterion mean? For Jim Harbaugh, it’s attitude and culture. For Sean Payton, it’s play-calling with a rookie QB and culture. It’s having the guts to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson—and it is working brilliantly. O’Connell and LaFleur are gems. Sean McDermott’s work with the Bills at 10-2 is remarkable.

But if Mike Tomlin leads the Steelers to a division title this year, that’s the one you’ll have a hard time ignoring.

5. NWI TD

Am I regretting pulling Nick Westbrook-Ikhine from my DFS lineup for Devaughn Vele at the same price? Why, yes. Yes, I am. NWI has 20 catches this year—8 of them touchdowns! That’s tied for the highest receiving touchdown percentage since Marc Boerigter in 2002. A Marc Boerigter reference! From Weeks 6-13, NWI is tied with Ja’Marr Chase for most receiving touchdowns. Wow. A bounce-back with an NWI anytime touchdown bet? DFS lineup revenge? Take the points with the Titans laying 3.5.

6. Charged Up

I don’t believe in this Chiefs team as a legit champion. They’ve won an NFL-record nine games by seven or fewer points through 12 games—that’s a fluke. I love Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but this team gets every break and has been outplayed by the Panthers and Raiders this year.

The Chiefs are 4-7-1 ATS this year. They struggled to beat the Chargers in Week 4 when LA was hurt. I’ve been saying for a while on Make It Rain with Adam Schein that I’ll take the Chargers in the rematch. I’ll grab the points with the Chargers +3.5. Here’s hoping the refs from the Bengals and Falcons games don’t show up. Or Todd Bowles. Or Will Lutz. Or Antonio Pierce. Or Isaiah Likely’s cleat. They can all be on a float together at the Chiefs’ parade.

7. Historically Inept

Congrats, Bengals. You are the worst.

Joe Burrow became the second QB in NFL history to lose three straight games while throwing for 300+ yards and three passing touchdowns, joining Andrew Luck. And the Bengals have scored the most points in a three-game losing streak (99) since 1970. Adding insult to injury, with the soul-sucking loss to the Steelers, Cincy now has the most points per game in losses (27.8) by any team all-time with a minimum of five losses.

What a total, absurd waste. Shipping out or not re-signing key players killed them. So did the Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins contract situations. And Zac Taylor’s coaching. And the defense.

Higgins will leave in free agency. The Big Three won’t win a title together.

Sad state of affairs.

8. Giant Issues

The Giants can’t throw, run, catch, or play defense. Other than that, they’re fine. While Tommy Devito gets the spotlight as the Italian jersey boy, it’s Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi—who grew up in Northern Jersey and went to the same high school as Devito, albeit much earlier—who deserves attention. Rizzi and the Saints are fighting to win. The Giants are not, and couldn’t even if they were. Oh, and the Giants are 0-7 in their last seven games, straight up and against the spread. The Saints march into MetLife and cover the 5.5.

9. It Takes 2…

The Vegas odds for MVP shifted after Week 13, and they’re spot on. Josh Allen is the heavy favorite, with Saquon Barkley now clearly holding the second-best odds. And it’s deserved. Allen was some magical combination of John Elway and Santa Claus in the snow Sunday night, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history with a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in the same game. The Bills clinching the AFC East on December 1st after the offseason talent drain is all thanks to Allen’s leadership, domination, and lights-out play. Allen is the definition of value.

Barkley is having a season for the ages too. He’s the reason why the loaded Eagles are on an eight-game winning streak. Barkley is on pace for an NFL-record 2,123 rushing yards and faces four of the six worst rush defenses in his final five games. Barkley can set the NFL record for rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. Remember when the Eagles collapsed down the stretch last year? Barkley has six fourth-quarter touchdowns of 20+ yards. Think about that for a second. Barkley has changed everything for Philly. That was a monster win for the Eagles in Baltimore.

Allen and Barkley are now significantly ahead of Lamar Jackson, who’s significantly ahead of Jared Goff on my ballot. Hope you got in on Allen when we picked and bet him for MVP preseason.

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