On Saturday, January 3, the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will battle for the NFC West at Levi’s Stadium. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Seahawks vs. 49ers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 18 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Seahawks vs. 49ers
When: Saturday, January 3 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 1. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Seahawks -120, 49ers +100
Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (-112), 49ers +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
Seahawks vs. 49ers Analysis
Kyle Shanahan has done a fantastic job with this San Francisco team. The 49ers have endured all kinds of injuries this season, yet they’re one game away from winning the NFC West. They’re also playing the game at home, meaning they theoretically have the inside track. They’re also hosting a team that they beat in Week 1. However, it’s hard to beat a team twice in the NFL. And that’s especially true when you’re talking about a 49ers team that looks very different than it did to start the season.
Due to all of the absences with this San Francisco defense, coordinator Robert Saleh’s unit is 25th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.085) since Week 9. This 49ers team has genuinely been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, putting a lot of pressure on the offense to deliver. Fortunately for San Francisco, Brock Purdy and Co. have been up for it. In fact, since Week 11, the 49ers are the No. 2 offense in the league in terms of EPA per play (0.197).
The issue this week is that San Francisco’s offense is going up against the second-best defense in the league. The Seahawks have an EPA per play allowed of -0.103, and they’re excellent against both the run and the pass. With that in mind, Mike Macdonald’s defense should be up to the challenge of finding a way to slow down this 49ers offense. However, I’m not sure San Francisco’s defense will be able to do the same against Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense.
This 49ers team has just been abysmal lately, with the passing defense being especially problematic. San Francisco has allowed at least 292 passing yards in three straight games, and there’s a good chance Darnold will be able to deliver for his team. We actually just saw Darnold torch the Rams in the second half of a 38-37 overtime win in Week 16. And while he did struggle a bit in last week’s win over the Panthers, facing this secondary should be a lot easier.
Seattle is also 9-0 straight-up and 5-3-1 against the spread as a road favorite under Macdonald. The Seahawks are also 3-0 SU when facing a team that beat them earlier in the year under Macdonald, so it should be expected that they’ll look at the film and come correct here. The 49ers are also 8-11 SU as home underdogs under Shanahan, and they’re 11-17 SU when facing a team with a winning percentage of 75.0% or higher.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Player Props
Lean: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD Scorer (-108)
Smith-Njigba didn’t find the end zone when these teams met in Week 1, but he has 10 touchdowns on the season. He has been scoring with regularity, so I’m not reading too much into the first game. Instead, I’m focusing on the fact that San Francisco’s secondary hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last month or so. And with Smith-Njigba’s target share in this offense, that should give him a good shot at scoring — especially if this ends up being a high-scoring game.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Pick
San Francisco’s offense has been on an absolute heater, but Seattle is capable of putting points on the board and keeping them off. The 49ers just don’t have that same balance, making it hard to imagine them finding a way to win this game — even at home. That’s why I like the Seahawks to win this game and take the division crown.
Bet: Seahawks ML (-118 – 1.5 units)
