The Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup is a good one, as the Denver Broncos will host the Seattle Seahawks. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Seahawks vs. Broncos
When: Thursday, October 15 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: Prime Video
Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, October 13. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Seahawks -148, Broncos +124
Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-115), Broncos +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 40.5 (-112), Under 40.5 (-108)
Seahawks vs. Broncos Analysis
The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the 49ers, while the Broncos picked up an ugly win over the Chargers. Both teams now sit at 3-2 on the season, but it’s the defending champs that come into this one as betting favorites.
As of early Tuesday evening, DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits showed a small majority of bets on Seattle, but the handle significantly favored the Seahawks. However, at Circa Sports, while a majority of the tickets favored Seattle, the handle was emphatically favoring the Broncos. That’s pretty significant considering Circa is viewed as one of the sharpest books in the country. Also, it’s noteworthy to me, as I already leaned Denver.
Seattle just hasn’t looked right offensively this season. The Seahawks are just 26th in the NFL in EPA/Play (-0.070), their offensive line hasn’t played up to expectations, and they’re getting nothing on the ground. Seattle is just 30th in the NFL in Rush EPA/Play (-0.275), and that’s playing a big role in Sam Darnold’s Pro Football Focus grade being down at 72.2. The Seahawks are built to be a good rushing team, and the passing game plays off the ground attack with play-action passes. When Seattle isn’t getting it done on the ground, everything else suffers.
Denver’s defense will come into this one knowing that avoiding chunk yardage on early downs should set the team up for a victory. That said, I expect the Broncos to do whatever they can to key in on the run. That’ll be a little harder for the team to do with so many defensive backs — including Pat Surtain II — banged up, but it’s going to have to be how Denver approaches this. And I ultimately think the team will be successful.
Of course, the Broncos will have to find a way to score against a Seahawks defense that is No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.117). That won’t be easy considering the way Denver is playing right now, and I’m not sure the Broncos looked all that better with Sean Payton stepping in for Davis Webb as the team’s play-caller. But I do feel pretty strongly that Denver’s offense is better than Seattle’s offense right now, and that’s massive in a game like this one.
I just don’t see the Seahawks’ issues suddenly fixing themselves in one of the toughest road environments in sports. Also, the Broncos are 3-2 straight-up on Thursdays under Payton, so they don’t mind the short rest. They’re also 22-8 SU when playing at home under Payton, and they have a winning record as home underdogs.
Seahawks vs. Broncos Player Props
Jaylen Waddle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I don’t often take the player props I throw in these primetime stories, but you’ll notice there’s no “lean” listed in front of this one. I’m actually taking Waddle to finish with at least 47 yards, as it’s one in which a few of our tools point to an Over. For starters, our WR/CB Matchup Tool likes him to go to work against Josh Jobe. Jobe’s PFF score is down at 54.1 this year, so Waddle’s speed could be an issue for him. Also, our OptaAI player prop projections have Waddle finishing with 55.84 receiving yards here. That’s nearly 10 more than the total. So, in a game in which I already like Denver, I’m taking Waddle. I can see him hauling in a bomb at some point.
Seahawks vs. Broncos Pick
We have definitely seen some signs that Denver has taken a step back this season, but I like the Broncos to figure this thing out. Also, even with the way things are currently going, I don’t see why Denver is available at +130 in a home game against a similar team. The Broncos already have one big primetime win under their belts this year, and this one should be a little more straightforward than the Rams one. Seattle is struggling to move the ball, and doing so in a night game in Denver likely isn’t the solution. That said, I’m going moneyline with the home team. I’m also taking the Waddle prop.
Bet: Broncos ML (+130 – 1.5 units) & Waddle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
