Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, October 15 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Eat Hay Run (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Eat Hay Run
2. Ageeba Beach
3. Silbury Hill
Granted, it was spring KEE turf, not fall, but EAT HAY RUN has a good race over the course, and the close debut second behind Tam Tam looks even better now that Tam Tam has won two straight G1s. Don’t think she’s a sprinter; do think comeback run over 6 1/2 last out at KD gets her to her best here. AGEEBA BEACH changed leads at an inopportune moment coming to the uphill finish last out at KD, and that probably cost her victory. Winner was a first-time starter, third-place horse is in this race, so you can see the form – just wonder how strong that race was. Her lack of positional pace could hurt, too, in a race that could unfold at a slowish tempo – Eat Hay Run almost certainly gets first run. The B Mott barn over the last five years is 0-44 with 3yos and older debuting in turf-route MSWs, but that sample includes one starter at KEE and none during the KEE fall meet. Firster SILBURY HILL has improved immensely in her workouts over the last two months, to the point I can easily imagine her contending.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Spurgeon
2. Roguishness
3. Ramblin
SPURGEON took a good long time to wind up before making a very strong run to the line in that CD one-turn mile last out – you know, like a horse looking for two turns. And look at that – he made his first eight starts in routes, seven of them around two turns, and now, finally, gets back out to a route here. I think this horse is all right – give him excuses for his races 3, 4, and 5 back. ROGUISHNESS was not for nothing dropped from MSW to $30K maidens returning last out from a long layoff – though he did win that quite well for the class level. Can the form hold for at least one more start? Not sure either of RAMBLIN’s two dirt starts tells the whole tale – the most recent, for instance, came sans Lasix in the Lexington Stakes. Solid turf run first off claim last out, so, if the form transfers across surfaces, he’s in the hunt.
Second Race
1. Not My Niche
2. Global Equity
3. Made Up Stories
Can’t see any work video for NOT MY NICHE, and all the things going on here – turf to dirt, MSW to MCL, 2yo maiden-claiming generally – do not come up strong for this barn. But the sample is much too small to be dispositive, and the stable has sent out mainly live dirt horses this meet. The $75K tag off that very modest turf debut suggests they are trying to win as much as trying to lose the horse – and I don’t see a whole lot in this field. GLOBAL EQUITY’s lone start came in a CD MSW at least solid for the class level, and it started with her getting squeezed back to last. She did come with a little run while failing to change leads in the homestretch and could fit quite well with $75K maidens. MADE UP STORIES buzzing bullets at Turfway. The barn for a long time has won prolifically with first-timers, but they’ve barely debuted any of them at KEE.
Third Race
1. Banned for Life
2. Kirin
3. Lil Muggs
My DRF colleagues have BANNED FOR LIFE on top here – which adds more weight to my sense he’s going to be poor value. Even so, he’s in for just $10K less than the claim price paid three back, and it’s easy to draw a line through the last-out KD turf flop. He hits his baseline, he probably wins, but as a front-running type drawn inside other speed, what will the tactics look like? KIRIN popped two good ones in a row last summer, and if he runs back to his competitive last start facing only slightly lesser foes, he’s got a chance. LIL MUGGS makes the third start of his form cycle, which is where he won during his last form cycle. He’s just a little light in the shorts for me to see him winning.
Fifth Race
1. Farrokh
2. When I Go
3. Psalm One Eighteen
Don’t agree with the official chart’s assessment of FARROKH’s debut showing – after trouble at the start put her much too far back, she was turning in a decent run — not a winning run, for sure — when she ran into traffic that got so bad the last half-furlong that her jockey, reasonably, just wrapped up. One post-race workout video was encouraging. The barn has been going great guns this meet. WHEN I GO had a tougher trip two back at Ellis than the running line might suggest, and just didn’t seem to get a mile last out. Limited upside on the day, I’d guess, but established form might be good enough. PSALM ONE EIGHTEEN stuck on the AE list but stands a decent chance of drawing in. Debuted in the same race as Farrokh and in a race where closers did best, he stuck around gamely after pushing the pace.
Sixth Race
1. Queen Azteca
2. Take Charge Omaha
3. Roswell
Hate to be the Lasix guy, but QUEEN AZTECA’s lone start on Lasix yielded her lone American win – which happened to come wire to wire in a KEE dirt route. I doubt they send rail-drawn Roswell in this stretchout experiment, which could leave QA loose on the lead. Under that scenario, TAKE CHARGE OMAHA, who would be the most likely winner if she got a fair setup, could struggle to get up in time in this short-stretch 1 1/16-mile contest. Was very aggressively entered after winning at KEE in the spring and now back at the right level. ROSWELL’s dam (who has not gotten many runners) was a true route horse, but they’ve so far stuck to sprints with her save on turf try. Kind of wonder if this is a race just to make sure they’re not missing something before she becomes a broodmare.
Seventh Race
1. Goats on a Tree
2. Just Aloof
3. Triumphant Spirit
Most of GOATS ON A TREE’s best work came from just off the pace – until the last-out Colonial performance. Didn’t just come from off the pace – good run and sustained it closing into a tepid tempo. Kept fresh since, and that positional speed could come in handy here. JUST ALOOF is first Lasix, though might just have failed to stay the longer trips in her last two starts while failing to contend at graded-stakes class. She has some upside. I have some concerns about how she’ll get over this course. It was a soft maiden, but TRIUMPHANT SPIRIT did win over the KEE course last fall, and that counts for a lot this time of year.
Eighth Race
1. Excellent
2. Caribbean Life
3. My Boy Gary
EXCELLENT had a demanding trip through traffic for a first-time starter, and not only did all that was asked of him, he finished off that CNL sprint full of run and galloped out well enough. I think he’ll route, he’s been training with some verve (based on work video) over the KEE surface, and ought to be a square price. CARIBBEAN LIFE obviously comes out of the best race, and probably fell too far back in the early stages of the Iroquois. Seemed all out to nab a decent third – clear contender but likely overbet here. MY BOY GARY made a nimble, nifty move en route to a blowout restricted maiden win last time, and might well have more to give third time out and first time around two turns.
Ninth Race
1. Take the Helm
2. She’s on a Roll
3. Just Entitled
Not much doing from her barn with regard to older first-timers debuting in turf-route MSWs, but the sample is small, and TAKE THE HELM interests me. One workout video far from definitive, but thought she traveled well and looked fit enough. The work times and pattern suggest as much, and this race could be ripe for the taking. SHE’S ON A ROLL very competitive form for this group but lacks upside, and with J Ortiz taking the mount, the price will be low. JUST ENTITLED is entitled to improve in her second race, first back from a long layoff, and her debut over nine furlongs in the spring was at least decent.
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