Seahawks vs. Cardinals – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
With two divisional rivals with solid defenses and non-dominant offenses playing in a short week to open Week 4, I’m getting a little weird for this week’s Thursday Night Football props — but a win is a win.
Kenneth Walker Over 12.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Arizona allows the eighth-fewest rushing YPG (66.3) to RBs. Two weeks ago, we saw Chuba Hubbard post 5/39/1 receiving in this matchup, and Walker put up 4/52 receiving in his lone matchup against the Cardinals last season. In the other game between these divisional rivals, backup Zach Charbonnet caught all seven of his targets for 59 yards, and the Seattle RBs in two games posted 14 receptions on 16 targets for 117 yards. In the game Walker played last year, Charbonnet did not have a single target, and he’s yet to see a pass target in two games this season. Of course, that probably means Charbonnet catches a ball before Walker, but getting to 13 yards is extremely doable for Walker.
Greg Dortch Over 17.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Veteran Zay Jones is out, so Dortch’s role will be expanding this week. Seattle will get CB Devin Witherspoon back to man the slot, but we need to only clear 18 yards here, so I’m not that worried about an individual matchup, since Dortch does so much near the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals actually rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (7.5%) through three weeks, which is good for this prop, and Kyler Murray ranks 32nd in aDOT (6.0), which is great for Dortch.
NOTE: I have not yet found a receptions prop for Dortch for this Thursday Night Football matchup, but if I can find a line over 1.5 receptions with odds -135 or better, I would prefer that play to the yardage prop.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 80.5 receiving yards (-120, Fanatics)
This is a pretty big number, but JSN has hit it in three straight games this year, and in six of his last eight. He’s also hit 69 receiving yards in 11 of his last 13 games, with 10 of those contests coming last year, when D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were still on the roster. With those two veterans gone, JSN is currently rolling with a 50% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data, and his league-leading 4.82 YPRR through three weeks is truly mind-numbing. The Cardinals allow the second-most passing YPG (275.3), including 284/1 passing to Mac Jones last week, and they are once again down starting CB Will Johnson, who is arguably their best corner already as a rookie. As for the schematic matchup for JSN, it’s fantastic, since the Cards run the highest rate of Cover 4 (28.7%), and he averages a truly absurd 11.17 YPRR and .83 TPRR on 12 routes against the coverage. JSN put up 5/82/1 on five targets and 6/77/1 on 7 targets last year in the matchup, out-producing Metcalf and Lockett in both games. Finally, Arizona is 31st in pressure rate (25.3%), and Sam Darnold has been significantly better when he’s not pressured in YPA (9.52>7.79), passer rating (118.0>72.7), and CPOE (12.5%>1.2%), so this duo should continue to roll this week.
Kyler Murray Over 0.5 INTs (-107, DraftKings)
Murray has not thrown a pick in two of his three games so far, but I like this one as a worthy play, since Seattle is second in the NFL right now with five INTs, and since Kyler threw three INTs in two games in less than a month in this matchup last year in weeks 12 and 14. Seattle’s offense is looking good in this one, so Kyler may have to throw a lot in the second half, and it’s a tougher spot for his top wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., so he may have to force the ball to Trey McBride, which isn’t healthy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 14.5 receiving yards – 1st Quarter (-120, Fanatics)
In theory, since JSN is averaging an absurd 4.82 YPRR so far, he has to run only five routes to hit this prop. That sounds absurd, and it probably is, but we have JSN with an elite coverage grade this week, and the grade represents a +22.8% increase to JSN’s yards-per-route-run, so by that metric, his YPRR against the coverages he’ll see is over 6.0. JSN is also averaging 14.7 YPR this year, so he may need only one catch in the first quarter to hit this. JSN last week got 29 yards on his first target and catch, and 49 yards on their first drive. The week before that, he got 15 yards on his first target and catch on their first drive. In the opener, JSN got an 18-yard reception on their first play of the game.
Trey McBride Over 10.5 receiving yards – 1st Quarter (-114, DraftKings)
I do think his total receiving prop for the whole game is very doable (O64.5, -114 on DraftKings), but I like this easy number as a better play, since McBride saw 29 targets in this matchup last year, and he crushed with 12/133 and 7/70 against them last season. It’s not the best spot for WR Marvin Harrison on the outside, and they are thinned a little with slot man Zay Jones out. Seattle also allows the most receptions (8.0), the seventh-most receiving YPG (60.0), and the most FPG (20.7) to the position so far, so I like McBride to haul in 1-2 balls per quarter in this one.
John Hansen is the creator of Fantasy Points. Built for bettors. Trusted by winners. Fantasy Points Data subscribers win more because they have access to the best information. Stop guessing. Start betting with confidence. Get started today with promo code VSIN2025.
