On Sunday, November 2, Jayden Daniels returns to action as the Washington Commanders host the Seattle Seahawks in the Week 9 Sunday Night Football game. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Seahawks vs. Commanders betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Seahawks vs. Commanders
When: Sunday, November 2 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
Channel: NBC
Seahawks vs. Commanders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, November 1. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Seahawks -155, Commanders +130
Spread: Seahawks -3 (-105), Commanders +3 (-115)
Total: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-115)
Seahawks vs. Commanders Analysis
Daniels coming back makes the Commanders way more dangerous, though this is still a spot in which it’s hard not to like the Seahawks. While Washington’s EPA per play (0.041) is a little higher than Seattle’s (0.035), the Seahawks are on a completely different level defensively. Seattle is currently eighth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.036), thanks to the league’s most dominant rushing defense (-0.260). Meanwhile, Washington is down at 24th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.085), and the team has been pretty lousy against both the run and the pass.
The Seahawks rushing defense could decide the outcome here. Road teams that have allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games are 35-13 against the spread since 2021, which is good for an ROI of 39.2% and +20.7 units. That system is also 2-0 since the start of this season. Also, taking that system a step forward, since 1983, road teams that average 95.0-125.0 rushing yards per game that have allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games are 33-11 ATS when facing defenses that allow 125.0-150.0 rushing yards per game.
This just feels like a game that the Seahawks are bound to control when it comes to time of possession, and the impact of the running game on both sides of the ball should directly impact the quarterback play. If Seattle picks up easy yardage on the ground, Sam Darnold will absolutely shred a mediocre Washington secondary. Darnold is currently first in the NFL with a PFF grade of 92.0. He’s also first in the NFL in aDOT (9.6). And big plays should be there if the Seahawks are running the ball well, especially via play-action passes. Meanwhile, if Seattle’s rushing defense shuts down Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the Commanders running game, Daniels is going to be asked to do a lot — and he’ll need to do it without Terry McLaurin, who is once again dealing with an injury.
The Seahawks are also 10-1 straight-up and 7-3 ATS when playing on the road with Mike Macdonald as head coach, and Seattle has won those games by an average of 5.7 points per game. The Seahawks are also coming off a bye week, meaning Macdonald has had plenty of time to prepare his elite defense for this Commanders attack.
Seahawks vs. Commanders Player Props
Lean: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 95.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Smith-Njigba’s props all seem out of control, but our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 117.46 receiving yards in this game. Smith-Njigba has also gone Over on his receiving yard total in six out of seven games this year, according to our NFL Prop Analyzer. Also, our third prop tool, the WR-CB Matchup Tool, has Smith-Njigba with the third biggest advantage of the week as he goes against Marshon Lattimore here.
While Smith-Njigba’s totals seem high, this is a guy that comes into this game having had at least 123 yards in three straight games. He has also scored a touchdown in four of the last five. Smith-Njigba looks like the best wide receiver in football right now, and his connection with Darnold is remarkable.
Seahawks vs. Commanders Pick
I would have loved to jump on Seattle -2.5 in this one, but it’s a little too expensive. So I’ll just hope the Seahawks win this one by more than a field goal, which doesn’t feel too unrealistic given the way both teams are playing. Seattle has won-and-covered in five of its last six games; Washington has lost three in a row and four of its last five. I don’t think the return of Daniels changes all of that.
Bet: Seahawks -3 (-105)
