On Sunday, February 8, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots meet in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. With the biggest game of the NFL season still to come, now is a great time to grab a VSiN Pro subscription. We’re going right from this into our in-depth coverage of March Madness, and we’re also going to be posting a ton of MLB season preview content soon. On top of that, we’re still going hard providing you with analysis on the NBA and NHL. And for those of you that fancy some tennis, we’re doing a lot of that! Also, not only do we have all kinds of written content, but our live programming is hitting all of these topics. With that out of the way, it’s time to get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for Seahawks vs. Patriots odds, predictions, and best bets.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Seahawks vs. Patriots
When: Sunday, February 8th at 6:30 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, February 1. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190
Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-115), Patriots +4.5 (-105)
Total: Over 45.5 (-108), Under 45.5 (-112)
Seahawks vs. Patriots Analysis
Whether it’s public money or sharp money, our VSiN betting splits pages show that Seattle is the popular side in this one — and that’s true at both DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports. All year long, the NFC was viewed as the NFL’s stronger conference, and it was the Seahawks that came out on top of it. Seattle beat a good Los Angeles Rams team along the way, and that victory came right after an absolute stomping of a solid San Francisco 49ers squad. Meanwhile, people have been talking all year about how soft New England’s schedule was, and the Patriots aren’t getting much love for wins over the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos in the postseason.
It isn’t hard to see why people prefer the Seahawks. Mike Macdonald’s team was No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.113). The Seahawks had the best run-stopping unit in the league (-0.206 Rush EPA per play allowed) and a top-five passing defense (-0.065 Dropback EPA per play allowed) during the regular season. Seattle was also seventh in Pass Rush Win Rate (41%). That type of balanced defense gives you a chance in any game that you play, and it’s not like the offense was terrible. The running game wasn’t all that efficient throughout the year, but Kenneth Walker III has been a monster in the playoffs. He has rushed for 178 yards with four touchdowns while also catching seven passes for 78 yards. The Seahawks also had the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play (0.137) during the regular season, with Sam Darnold lighting it up in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense — a system that has seemingly earned him the Las Vegas Raiders head coaching job.
Seattle also happens to have the sexier wins when looking at the season-long resume. In addition to wins over the 49ers and Rams in the playoffs — and the regular season — the Seahawks also beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Carolina Panthers. Those were all playoff teams this year, and all of the wins came by at least eight points.
It does, however, feel like everyone is selling the Patriots short. Say what you want about the quality of opponents, but Mike Vrabel’s team knocked down the teams that were lined up. The team also finished No. 2 in the NFL in Net EPA per play when looking at rbsdm’s Team Tiers page, sitting right behind the Rams in Tier 1. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were ranked fourth in the league, but they were a tier below — sitting at the top of Tier 2.
The Patriots were also the best offensive team in the league during the regular season, finishing first in EPA per play (0.155). Drake Maye, who led the league in EPA+CPOE Composite (0.223), was a big part of that, as New England had the best passing game in the NFL (0.308 Dropback EPA per play). Maye hasn’t quite lived up to his regular-season numbers in the playoffs, but he has also played some elite defenses, in ugly-weather games. Don’t be surprised if he looks a lot sharper in Santa Clara, where the conditions are expected to be calm.
New England’s defense is also a little underrated. While the Patriots were just 16th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play (-0.077) during the regular season, this was more like a top-five group defending the run with Milton Williams healthy. That’s significant with him being healthy right now, as they should be able to stop Walker’s hot streak on the ground. New England is also pretty solid against the pass, where Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and Marcus Jones make up a decent trio of corners. If the Pats can just get some pressure on Darnold, there’s always a chance he gets rattled. While he played great against Los Angeles last round, that’s a defense that was fading down the stretch. Vrabel’s defensive unit is a little more trustworthy.
Realistically, the Seahawks should feel good about their chances in this one, but nobody should be surprised if the Patriots find a way. The gap between these two isn’t as large as the media is making it out to be. New England has a great coaching staff and a more-talented quarterback. That should count for something in a game that should lean a little lower in scoring.
Taking the points is just somewhat attractive here, especially with the Patriots being 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 under Vrabel. They’re also 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when facing teams with winning records.
As far as the total goes, everyone is going to want to bet the Over in the final game of the year. However, the number has dropped since it opened at 46.5, and this is a meeting between two defensive-minded teams. The Under is probably the way to go.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Player Props
Lean: Drake Maye Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Maye is a pocket passer before anything else, but he’s also an awesome athlete. The second-year quarterback has made plays with his legs all year, rushing for at least 40 yards on seven separate occasions. He has also had two games this postseason with at least 65 rushing yards, and that’s hard to ignore as his rushing yard total sits at 36.5 in this game. It’s clear that Maye has been quick to trust his legs in these high-pressure games, and I don’t see that changing against the Seahawks. Maye is going to be facing a ton of pressure in this game, which might seem like a bad thing. However, Maye has done well against blitzes all year, and there could be a few plays in which there’s a lot of green in front of him after getting around the rush.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Pick
While the last game of the year might seem like a good time to absolutely hammer sides, totals, and player props, I’m simply playing New England +4.5 to win one measly unit. I do view the Seahawks as a slightly better team than the Patriots, but I’m higher on New England than most. It genuinely feels like nobody wants to back the Patriots, which makes them even more appealing. That said, I’m hoping for an ugly, low-scoring game, making the points more valuable than they’d normally be. That might not seem exciting, but I don’t need the game to entertain me. That’s Bad Bunny’s job.
Bet: Patriots +4.5 (-105)
