Seven Successful NFL Week 1 Betting Systems:

The anticipation for the start of the NFL regular season grows every year, especially with sports betting becoming more mainstream. This season, bettors will again be looking for the best info to get their campaigns off to a profitable start. It’s an ideal time to look closely at seven successful and consistent betting systems, looking exclusively at past Week 1 action. These angles consider line positioning, how the teams fared the previous year and transition into the follow-up season opener, and whether or not revenge is in play.

In analyzing these betting angles, you should note that every team, regardless of what happened last year or what player/coaching transactions they made over the offseason, is starting with a fresh slate. That can do wonders for a team. It wipes out any positive or negative momentum generated the prior season. All of this is tough to measure. Without any on-field action to observe, how can those setting the lines be expected to 100% accurately quantify the Week 1 chemistry of the teams? This, in turn, can be to the bettors’ advantage.

 

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Remember, the bookies’ theoretical job is to get equal action on both sides of the wagering options in a game, not so much to pick the game. Naturally, there can be weak spots, and savvy bettors who are prepared with both knowledge of the teams and a powerful weapon like systems can be ready to take advantage. These seven NFL Week 1 betting systems will help you get prepared for kickoff 2024.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #1:

Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI: 56.5%, Grade 75)

2024 Potential Plays: INDIANAPOLIS

Analysis: Unlike some recent seasons, there are only three divisional contests on the NFL Week 1 slate. And only one of those games fits the bill for this very successful system. There isn’t a whole lot more motivating than an opening week contest at home against a targeted team in the division. In most past cases, the road favorite in this scenario was a returning playoff team, while the home dog was an aspiring one. That is particularly true in this year’s case, and the Colts figure to be plenty motivated after being eliminated by the Texans in the regular season finale last year.

Game #1: INDIANAPOLIS (+2) vs. Houston
The Texans kept the Colts out of the playoffs this past January. Although it’s been nearly eight months since that game, you’d have to assume that there is a hunger to not only get off to a good start but to get the bitter taste of that loss out of their mouths. 

The Texans are the favorites in the AFC South after winning a playoff game following that big Week 18 win vs. Indianapolis. Quarterback CJ Stroud is one of the league’s leading MVP candidates and is a major reason the expectations are so high for the Texans in 2024. However, this will be a difficult spot for them, as the Colts are hungry and anxious to get their new era started with QB Anthony Richardson under center.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #2:

Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-15 SU and 3-16-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -14.6 units, ROI: -76.8%, Grade 75)

2024 Potential Plays: AGAINST ATLANTA, AGAINST CLEVELAND

Analysis: In general, home teams have not fared well in Week 1 recently. Arguments have been made lately regarding the validity of home-field advantage overall. When you consider that there is an air of unfamiliarity that comes with playing an out-of-conference opponent in Week 1, perhaps that home-field edge is shrunk even further. Whatever the case, hosts have not been performing well in this scenario over the last decade. Last year, the two host teams were 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS, including a 30-7 loss by the Steelers to the 49ers.

Game #1: ATLANTA (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
The Falcons are entering a new era, with QB Kirk Cousins coming from Minnesota. He will lead a talented offense featuring several recent top draft picks at the skill positions, notably WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. The 2024 expectations are highly elevated, as the key QB position was believed to be what has held this team back from dominating the NFC South in recent years. 

Their first test comes against a Pittsburgh team whose expectations are all over the map, according to a survey of the so-called experts. Head coach Mike Tomlin has never endured a losing season with the Steelers, but those in the know have legitimate concerns as the team works through a QB controversy between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. One thing is always for sure with Pittsburgh: expect a gritty effort. This won’t be an easy one for Cousins & Co.

Game #2: CLEVELAND (-2) vs. Dallas
The Browns will again hope to have QB Deshaun Watson for the full 17 games in 2024, as he remains one of the highest-paid players in the NFL. There is a lot of pressure on him to live up to that contract, particularly since Cleveland seems solid everywhere else on the roster. They are off an 11-6 season and will host a Dallas team that did one better last year at 12-5. The Cowboys have endured several key changes in the offseason, particularly on defense, and it remains to be seen how that unit responds. With former coordinator Dan Quinn and his schemes off to Washington, will this team be able to benefit from all the turnovers and defensive scores it has relied on in recent years? With Big D always a popular draw, the Cleveland Dawg Pound figures to be very fired up for this one. Historically speaking however, this has been a tough spot for teams to win and cover in.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #3:

NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, ROI: 36.6%, Grade 72)

2024 Plays: Play on ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

Steve’s Analysis: Teams in the 4-6 win range usually qualify as potential bounce-back teams the next season, with the start of the new season offering fresh motivation and momentum—in many cases, bad luck, injuries, or even tanking soured their records the prior season. Last year, there were three qualifying plays on this and those teams went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, including outright upsets from the Rams and Raiders. As you can see, there are four qualifying teams for this angle in 2024. 

Game #1: ARIZONA (+6.5) at Buffalo
Undoubtedly, Arizona was the team that most fans pegged as the worst in the NFL last season. While the Cardinals weren’t as bad as a handful of other teams in the league in ’23, there is still plenty of room to grow. With QB Kyler Murray under center in the back half of the season and recovering from injury, the team went 3-5 to finish 4-13 overall. The offense showed a lot of spark in that stretch with Murray, however, and is expected to get a big boost from the addition of WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., one of the top prospects ever out of college at the position. Still, they are a sizable underdog here for a reason. The Bills are again looking to get over the hump after yet another playoff disappointment last winter. They have “re-tooled” for ’24, particularly on offense, where several of the most notable names like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have left. Of course, this is QB Josh Allen’s team, and they will only go as far as he takes them. However, this season-opening game looks easier on paper than in reality.

Game #2: NEW ENGLAND (+9) at Cincinnati
This game will be a popular Survivor Contest entry for many taking part, and we already have seen that this is Brent Musburger’s Week 1 selection. However, the game doesn’t figure to be as easy as the point spread might suggest. I’ve read several opinions on the Patriots this offseason suggesting they could be a team that rebounds well under new head coach Jerod Mayo. It’s a huge task to take over for a legend like head coach Bill Belichick, but his departure, along with that of struggling QB Mac Jones, might be just what the doctor ordered to clean the slate in New England. Quarterback Joe Burrow returns for Cincinnati after missing most of the latter part of last season with an injury. With his return comes the return of lofty expectations in Cincinnati. If anyone is worried about unfamiliar territory, the Bengals have only been a favorite this large once since 2017.

Game #3: TENNESSEE (+4.5) at Chicago
I just spoke of unfamiliar territory regarding the line in the Bengals-Patriots game, but the same could be said about the Bears here as hosts in a game with a much smaller number. Chicago has only been a 4.5-point favorite or higher twice in their last 32 home games. There are two obvious reasons for the inflation. First, Tennessee is off a 6-11 season and could be in a rebuilding era under new head coach Brian Callahan. The Titans have turned the page to QB Will Levis. Second, Bears fans and the rest of the NFL are fired up about the potential that first NFL draft pick Caleb Williams brings to the franchise. After a volatile run with Justin Fields under center, Williams could be just the spark this team needs to climb a level or two.

Game #4: WASHINGTON (+4) at Tampa Bay
Another rookie quarterback takes center stage in a Week 1 contest at Tampa Bay. Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders into an intriguing matchup versus the Buccaneers. I use the word intriguing because of the addition of Daniels in Washington and because they begin a new era under head coach Dan Quinn, who enjoyed a fruitful run as defensive coordinator at Dallas. His defenses were electric there. Tampa Bay is the defending NFC South champ after going 9-8, but the experts behind the counter are a bit pessimistic about the chances of a repeat, dropping the season win total for the Bucs to 7.5. This looks like an uncomfortable line for a host team that won five more games last season.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #4:

Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since 2013. (Win: +12.2 units, ROI: 42.1%, Grade 70)

2024 Potential Plays: CAROLINA, LAS VEGAS

Analysis: Again, there are just a few divisional contests on the NFL Week 1 slate, but two of those feature road underdogs we can focus on, and ironically, the two teams fitting the criteria for his long-running profitable angle also did so a year ago. A divisional contest in Week 1 pegs the urgency meter like nothing else, especially when a team is on the road and not expected to win. This system is a perfect example of how teams can quickly flush the struggles of the prior year behind and start fresh on opening weekend.

Game #1: CAROLINA (+3) at New Orleans
The Carolina offense was nothing short of woeful last year, but the team made a heavy offseason investment into improving almost all areas of that unit. The Panthers also changed coaches in the offseason, opting for Dave Canales, who comes over from Tampa Bay, where he served as offensive coordinator. The experts have to believe that things will be improved for the franchise in 2024, as after a 2-15 finish in 2023, they are just a short 3-point road dog to a New Orleans team that was 9-8 last year and underwent only modest changes. It is hard to lay points in Week 1 division games, as the motivation and momentum belong to no one.

Game #2: LAS VEGAS (+3.5) at LA Chargers
The last time these teams met in December, the Raiders hung 63 points on the Chargers. Ironically, it was in the second half of a season in which the LA defense was otherwise quite strong. The magnitude of that loss had a lot to do with the Chargers moving on from Brandon Staley and bringing in Jim Harbaugh. 

Fans of the franchise are excited about the change, but they will barely recognize a number of players who have been brought in to replace aging stars. The schemes will also be very different as Harbaugh figures to rely more on a run-based attack rather than putting everything on QB Justin Herbert. The Raiders played some inspired football down the stretch for interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and as such, he was named the permanent coach to lead this team into 2024. He turns to QB Gardner Minshew to lead the offense after Minshew, who has had an up-and-down (mostly up) career, nearly led the Colts to the playoffs a year ago.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #5:

Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +12.7 units, ROI: 31.8%, Grade 65)

2024 Potential Plays: Play ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND

Analysis: There is a lot to be said about a team’s ability to start over in the NFL, and with every Week 1 game comes a fresh slate. All that happened last year is forgotten as both teams go into these games with 0-0 records. In many cases, strange or fluky happenings from the past season caused these Week 1 lines to be inflated. Trust that the underdogs will show up and compete, regardless of what the records from the prior year indicated or the doom and gloom the talking heads are sharing about these franchises’ prospects.

Game #1: ARIZONA (+6.5) at Buffalo
I wrote about this earlier in system #3, which focused on Arizona having the slate wiped clean following a 4-13 campaign a year ago. Here, the Cardinals are the beneficiaries of a Week 1 system that shows it has been dangerous laying big points this early in a season. With the preseason becoming less and less impactful every year, it seems we don’t know nearly as much in reality about these teams as we read about.

Game #2: NEW ENGLAND (+9) at Cincinnati
This is another repeat game from our system #3 earlier. The Patriots aren’t looked at highly in national media, but we have no idea the confidence or resolve they are bringing into the season in their locker room. In their first season post-Belichick, it will be an interesting story to follow all season. If this does end up being a much better team than the one that went 4-13 a year ago, it will make it a tough task for the Bengals to cover this massive line.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #6:

Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-27-5 ATS (64%) since 2000 (Win: +18.3 units, ROI: 24.4%, Grade 60)

2024 Plays: ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI

Steve’s Analysis: Home favorites hosting a quality opponent are likely a strong team themselves, or at least expected to be much better, and opening the season provides extra motivation. However, after a 0-2 SU and ATS performance in two games last season, for 2024, there are a lofty five plays on tap.

Game #1: ATLANTA (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
This particular system will obviously clash with that in system #2 for the Falcons-Steelers opening Sunday contest. The logic here is that even though the Steelers are a returning plus-.500 team, the host Falcons are still favored for a reason. Actually, in the case of Atlanta, there are a lot of reasons, starting with the addition of QB Kirk Cousins, who brings a passing dynamic that this franchise hasn’t had since Matt Ryan. There are certainly a lot of questions surrounding head coach Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh team in 2024 as well. He has apparently opted to “let Russ cook” at quarterback for the opener. Is that the right move? Does the locker room support it?

Game #2: CLEVELAND (-2) vs. Dallas
Another system that conflicts with #2 above, with the Browns coming back off an 11-6 season and looking for more in 2024. The Cowboys have only been in Cleveland twice since the Browns’ return to the NFL, winning easily in 2008 and 2016. Dallas was a prohibitive road favorite on both occasions. The Browns showed great balance on both sides of the ball in 2023. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s team faces some obvious questions after yet another playoff disappointment last winter. Can Dak Prescott lead this team where it wants to go? Can the defense hold up after key coaching and player losses? We’ll know a lot more after this one is over.

Game #3: DETROIT (-3.5) vs. LA Rams
We have a rematch from the playoffs of last winter set for Week 1. It wasn’t easy for the Lions, but they won a postseason game for the first time in 32 years last January, edging the Rams 24-23. The rematch could be just as tough, as Detroit will not have the massive motivational edge it had in that playoff game. Head coach Dan Campbell’s team is still at home, though, and they are being looked at as one of the top teams in the NFC for 2024. 

The Rams come off another wasted preseason in which the team seemingly could care less. Will head coach Sean McVay’s team be able to bring it here when it counts? His defense moves on from longtime Pro Bowler Aaron Donald, who announced his retirement in the offseason. Detroit is on a current stretch in which it has averaged 31.5 PPG in its last 22 home contests.

Game #4: KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. Baltimore
The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl Champions and once again are hosting the league’s much-anticipated opening night contest. The opponent: the team they beat to reach the Super Bowl this past January, the Ravens. Last year, in this same game, the Chiefs endured a somewhat sloppy performance in losing late to the Lions. I would expect a far more focused effort from head coach Andy Reid’s team this time around, as Baltimore, perhaps the Chiefs’ biggest threat in the AFC, tends to bring out the best in them. 

QB Patrick Mahomes is still here, TE Travis Kelce is still here, and most of what brought this franchise another title is back. They will be anxious to prove the naysayers wrong. There have been a lot of pundits thinking this could be the end of the run. On the other hand, Baltimore is back to the drawing board after coming up short once again despite being favored by 4.5 points in the AFC title tilt. Can head coach John Harbaugh’s team muster up a winning effort in what figures to be an important game?

Game #5: MIAMI (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Dolphins got to the postseason last year for the second straight season, only to endure a lackluster effort in a 25-7 loss at Kansas City. If that futile offensive effort proved anything, getting themselves into a more suitable postseason locale will be critical in 2024. In the last two years, the potent offense has flamed out at the end of the season. They have started fast in 2022 and 2023, getting off to 3-0 starts. In 2024, Miami will have to turn back a Jacksonville team that faded terribly down the stretch a year ago, falling from 8-3 to 9-8 in the season’s final six games and eventually blowing the AFC South Division. Has the offseason been enough to wipe the slate for head coach Doug Pederson’s team? They are facing a tough spot here against a team that put up 70 points in its only September home game last season.

NFL Week 1 Betting System #7:

Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons (Loss: -13.6 units, ROI: -33.2%, Grade 63)

2024 Plays: Play Against LA CHARGERS

Analysis: This is a tough spot for a favorite to be in. While revenge is a good motivator, there is enhanced pressure of being placed as a favorite over a team you lost to last time. Last year, four qualifying plays went 2-2 SU and ATS, still a positive moneyline return in fading them in an “off year” for the system. In the case of this year’s qualifying game, it is a divisional contest with enhanced stakes. We know that being a divisional favorite in Week 1 is also tough.

Game #1: LA CHARGERS (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas
This is a repeat team qualifier, as the Chargers were also a play-against option in #4 above. It seems that revenge isn’t a good motivating aspect for teams in Week 1 of a season. For one, the slates are wiped clean. The Chargers even have a whole new coaching staff that could care less about what happened back in December. For two, the lopsided nature of that Raiders win that LA is looking to avenge makes it hard to believe that you’d want to lay more than a field goal with the Chargers.

Good luck with your plays, and enjoy NFL Kickoff 2024! 

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