Super Bowl LX

Super Bowl Sunday, and the whole two-week leadup for that matter, has become widely known as a time period to take advantage of a ton of prop betting options that aren’t available for the average NFL game. Bettors can wager on specific play results, team and individual stats, and so much more. I’m here to address the various score differential and individual stats options, using some statistical forecasting methods that I’ve learned over the years in studying sports data. I will apply this knowledge to the upcoming New England-Seattle SBLX matchup.

Having served as an oddsmaker for over 10 years, I’ve used these methods in my submissions for some of the world’s most noteworthy sportsbooks. That said, rest assured that the numbers you will see below are my own projections and weren’t shared with any other industry people on either side of the counter.

I have done this same thing the last five years, and the score projections pointed to a Tampa Bay outright win over Kansas City in 2021, then a tight LA Rams in 2022, as well as UNDERs on both game totals. In other words, on sides and totals, I was 4-for-4. However, the 2023 numbers did project a Philadelphia win, and for as much as the Eagles did outplay the Chiefs for most of the game, that didn’t happen. Still, because the yardage and play totals had the look of a game that the Eagles should have won, most of my prop projections did very well. Then, in the 2024 game, I nearly pegged the score exactly, projecting a 26-21 KC win over the 49ers when it actually finished 25-22. Both the side and total won. Finally, in last year’s game, my score forecast projected a comfortable Philly upset, with 58 points scored. That game was my most distinct projection since I started doing this, and both the side and total won easily. That means I am officially 8-2 (80%) since starting this tradition on projecting the side and total for the season’s biggest game. Hopefully this year’s projections send you in the right direction as well.

In this piece I will start by projecting the scores, time of possession, and yardage statistics for the Super Bowl LX contest overall, and then expand into the individual players and their projected output based upon these overall numbers. For enhanced accuracy, I have only utilized the last 10 meaningful games for each team, making the assumption that the performances in that span were more indicative of the teams’ themselves and the quality of opponents which they faced. I’ve made appropriate adjustments for where the teams had or played against teams with injured star players.

Let’s start by looking at some overall projections for the game, using my EFFECTIVE STATS method as the basis for calculation. This method takes into account the team’s performance against weighted averages of its opponents. In other words, STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE is built in.

Overall Game Score using Effective Scoring Calculations

To show you an example of how I calculate the EFFECTIVE SCORE projections based upon the L10 analyzed games, here are the last 10 game Effective Points For/Against for both teams. I will only show the 10-game numbers for this first calculation to illustrate how I’ve done it:

New England Effective Offensive Points for L10 games: 21.45, 19.49, 29.56, 30.98, 27.55, 32.84, 34.56, 17.23, 37.00, 10.19

Seattle Effective Offensive Points for L10 games: 21.97, 25.20, 29.37, 30.38, 13.15, 46.02, 28.58, 13.96, 43.14, 36.24

Using my forecast model, here are the Effective Offensive Points projections for SB LX:

New England: 25.27

Seattle: 35.61

Applying the same statistical methods for the defensive performances…

New England Effective Defensive Points for L10 games: 18.75, 22.16, 14.78, 29.16, 21.89, 13.97, 15.28, 2.97, 15.50, 13.81

Seattle Effective Defensive Points for L10 games: 16.17, 29.23, 4.53, 12.52, 20.44, 29.03, 12.06, 3.13, 5.28, 20.38

Using the same forecast model, here are the Effective Defensive Points projections for SB LX:

New England: 10.17

Seattle: 10.96

I, along with a few of my statistical colleagues in the industry, typically estimate that about 2/3 of the “scoring output” is dictated by the offenses. Using that ratio, the score projection would be:

Last 10 Games Effective Scoring Forecast:

New England 20.5

Seattle 27.13

The total points of 47.63 is slightly higher than the actual total of 45.5, and the Seahawks would be expected to be a bit over a 6.5-point favorite. This obviously exceeds the actual line being offered in which Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite. Incidentally, this model has projected the favorite to win outright three times in five years.

We’ll see if it changes using an Effective Yards Per Play method for calculating the score.

Overall Game Score using Effective Yardage Calculations

Overall Time of Possession/Forecasted Scrimmage Plays

New England’s Effective Time of Possession forecast: 33.94 minutes

Seattle’s Effective Time of Possession forecast: 33.41 minutes

Naturally we can’t have more than 60 minutes projected for SB LX. Adjusted for a 60-minute game, here are the forecasts:

New England: 30.24 minutes (or 30:14)

Seattle: 29.76 minutes (or 29:46)

Over the last 10 meaningful games, New England has averaged 1.89 plays per minute of possession while Seattle has averaged 1.88 plays per minute. Thus, the expected number of plays run by each team in SB LX would be as follows:

New England: 57.2 plays

Seattle: 55.9 plays

Moving now to the Effective Yards per Play calculations for the L10 games, using the same method I did for the scoring, here are the games forecasts for SB LX:

New England Offensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.64

Seattle Offensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.79

New England Defensive Yards per Play Forecast: 3.49

Seattle Defensive Yards per Play Forecast: 5.18

By the way, before going on to any final yardage calculation, I must interject and share that the New England defensive yardage forecast of 3.49 YPP is the lowest I’ve projected in five years of doing this. The Patriots defense may be the most overlooked unit going into Sunday’s game. Something to watch…

Using the 2/3 offense, 1/3 defense formula, here are the forecasted total yards per play for SB LX:

New England: 5.49 YPP

Seattle 5.02 YPP

Thus, the TOTAL YARDAGE PROJECTIONS based upon plays run multiplied by expected yards per play would be as follows:

New England: 314.0 total yards

Seattle: 280.6 total yards

Applying Effective Yards per Point totals for the teams obtained over the L10 meaningful games this season using the same 2/3 offense, 1/3 defense ratio, the score forecasted with the yardage method would be:

L10 Games Effective Yardage Score Forecast:

New England 13.8

Seattle 16.8

Like a year ago, this projection is much lower on the total than the score method, and in this one, Seattle would be a bit smaller favorite of 3 points. It is indicating that the Seahawks would lose the yardage battle by almost 35 yards but still win the game. This has the yards per point component built into it so turnovers and other intangibles are a part of that. This method really highlights how well both defenses have played lately in making teams work for points.

Projecting the Team Stats

At this point in the season, you have to believe that the coaching staffs for both teams will try to generally stick with the recipe that got them to the Super Bowl. Using the assumptions made above in that New England would total 314.0 yards on 57.2 plays and Seattle would gain 280.6 yards on 55.9 plays, the number of runs and passes for each team would be broken up as follows:

New England runs: 29.3 runs (Effective Run% 51.3%)

New England passes: 27.9 passes (Effective Pass% 48.7%)

Seattle runs: 28.4 runs (Effective Run% 50.8%)

Seattle passes: 27.5 passes (Effective Pass% 49.2%)

Using the consistent 2/3 offense, 1/3 defense rules that I’ve applied, here are the expected rushing and passing yards per attempt and total yards for the two teams:

New England: 5.06 YPR for 148.3 Yards Rushing

Seattle: 3.89 YPR for 110.5 Yards Rushing

New England: 6.03 PYA for 168.2 Yards Passing (186.4 accounted for QB before 2.8 sacks projected)

Seattle: 6.34 PYA for 174.4 Yards Passing (186.8 accounted for QB before 1.9 sacks projected)

With Effective Completion Percentages of NE 66.7% and SEA 66.0%, the expected number of completions would be:

New England: 16.7 completions (on 25.1 actual throws)

Seattle: 16.9 completions (on 25.6 actual throws)

You now have all of the key team stat projections I will use below for forecasting the individual contributions to those totals.

Projecting the Individual Stats

Quarterbacks’ Passing Stats

I’ve basically already laid out the projected stats for the quarterbacks above. Here they are redisplayed with the actual prop odds according to DraftKings (DK) as of Wednesday 1/28/25 and the projected wager. You will see that my forecasts have neither quarterback coming close to their DK prop numbers:

Completions:

Drake Maye (NE) – projection 16.7 (DK odds: 20) – UNDER

Sam Darnold (SEA) – projection 16.9 (DK odds: 21) – UNDER

Attempts:

Drake Maye (NE) – projection 25.1 (DK odds: 32) – UNDER

Sam Darnold (SEA) – projection 25.6 (DK odds: 30) – UNDER

Passing Yards:

Drake Maye (NE) – projection 186.4 (DK odds: 230) – UNDER

Sam Darnold (SEA) – projection 186.8 (DK odds: 230) – UNDER

Quarterbacks Rushing Stats

Here are the projections for rush yards for the two starting quarterbacks:

Rushing Attempts:

Drake Maye (NE) – projection 7.1 (DK odds: 6.5) – OVER

Sam Darnold (SEA) – projection 2.7 (DK odds: 2.5) – OVER

Rushing Yards:

Drake Maye (NE) – projection 42.9 (DK odds: 37.5) – OVER

Sam Darnold (SEA) – projection 6.2 (DK odds: 6.5) – UNDER

Running Back (and WR) Rushing Stats

Here are my forecasted running backs’ rushing stats (and WRs) based upon recent trends and the stats projected earlier:

Rushing Attempts:

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – projection 13.9 (DK odds: 14.5) – UNDER

TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – projection 8.3 (DK odds: 4.5) – OVER

Kenneth Walker (SEA) – projection 19.1 (DK odds: 19.5) – UNDER

George Holani (SEA) – projection 3.6 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A

AJ Barner (SEA) – projection 1.8 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A

Rashid Shaheed (SEA) – projection 1.2 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A

Rushing Yards:

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – projection 78.8 (DK odds: 50.5) – OVER

TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – projection 25.8 (DK odds: 17.5) – OVER

Kenneth Walker (SEA) – projection 84.8 (DK odds: 76.5) – OVER

George Holani (SEA) – projection 13.2 (DK odds: 10.5) – OVER

A.J. Barner (SEA) – projection 1.8 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A

Rashid Shaheed (SEA) – projection 4.5 (DK odds: 4.5) – PUSH

Running Backs’ Receiving Stats

Here are my forecasted running backs’ receiving stats based upon recent trends and the stats projected earlier:

Receptions:

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – projection 1.9 (DK odds: 2.5) – UNDER

TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – projection 1.2 (DK odds: 0.5) – OVER

Kenneth Walker (SEA) – projection 2.0 (DK odds: 2.5) – UNDER

George Holani (SEA) – projection 0.9 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER

Receiving Yards:

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – projection 18.7 (DK odds: 20.5) – UNDER

TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – projection 6.4 (DK odds: 2.5) – OVER

Kenneth Walker (SEA) – projection 18.5 (DK odds: 24.5) – UNDER

George Holani (SEA) – projection 6.4 (DK odds: 10.5) – UNDER

Wide Receiver/Tight End Receiving Stats

Here are my forecasted wide receiver and tight end receiving stats based upon recent trends and the stats projected earlier:

Receptions:

Stefon Diggs (NE) – projection 3.7 (DK odds: 4.5) – UNDER

Mack Hollins (NE) – projection 2.0 (DK odds: 2.5) – UNDER

Kayshon Boutte (NE) – projection 2.0 (DK odds: 2.5) – UNDER

DeMario Douglas (NE) – projection 1.2 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER

Hunter Henry (NE) – projection 3.0 (DK odds: 3.5) – UNDER

Austin Hooper (NE) – projection 1.4 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER

Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) – projection 6.6 (DK odds: 7.5) – UNDER

Cooper Kupp (SEA) – projection 2.8 (DK odds: 2.5) – OVER

Rashid Shaheed (SEA) – projection 1.2 (DK odds: 1.5) – UNDER

A.J. Barner (SEA) – projection 2.7 (DK odds: 2.5) – OVER

Jake Bobo (SEA) – projection 0.7 (DK odds: N/A) – N/A

Receiving Yards:

Stefon Diggs (NE) – projection 38 (DK odds: 43.5) – UNDER

Mack Hollins (NE) – projection 27.9 (DK odds: 27.5) – OVER

Kayshon Boutte (NE) – projection 30.4 (DK odds: 31.5) – OVER

DeMario Douglas (NE) – projection 17.6 (DK odds: 10.5) – OVER

Hunter Henry (NE) – projection 36.5 (DK odds: 39.5) – UNDER

Austin Hooper (NE) – projection 11.9 (DK odds: 9.5) – OVER

Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) – projection 80.5 (DK odds: 95.5) – UNDER

Cooper Kupp (SEA) – projection 29.9 (DK odds: 31.5) – UNDER

Rashid Shaheed (SEA) – projection 17.0 (DK odds: 23.5) – UNDER

A.J. Barner (SEA) – projection 24.5 (DK odds: 24.5) – PUSH

Jake Bobo (SEA) – projection 10.1 (DK odds: 0.5) – OVER