The Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup is a good one, as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Pittsburgh Steelers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Steelers vs. Chargers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Steelers vs. Chargers
When: Sunday, November 9 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: NBC
Steelers vs. Chargers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 7. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chargers -162, Steelers +136
Spread: Chargers -3 (-105), Steelers +3 (-115)
Total: Over 45.5 (-105), Under 45.5 (-115)
Steelers vs. Chargers Analysis
It’s likely this home game won’t feel like much of a home game for the Chargers. Los Angeles doesn’t have the strongest fanbase in the world and Pittsburgh’s fans travel extremely well — and a trip out to California is desirable for some of those Steelers fans. That could mean that the Chargers won’t have a true home-field advantage in this one. Combine that with the fact that Joe Alt is out indefinitely and this suddenly feels like more of a coin-flip game.
Pittsburgh’s defense has definitely left a lot to be desired this season, sitting 24th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.067) — and ranking outside the top-15 in both Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.099) and Rush EPA per play allowed (0.001). However, the Steelers are definitely a little more vulnerable on the ground, and the Chargers might not be able to exploit that with the offensive line banged up and Omarion Hampton still out with an ankle injury. Also, while Pittsburgh’s secondary could struggle to cover a good group of Los Angeles wideouts, this is a game in which the Steelers pass rush should help out by getting a lot of pressure on Justin Herbert. With Alt and Rashawn Slater out, there’s just not much up there to keep Herbert from getting hit. And Pittsburgh is third in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (48%).
The Steelers have also been pretty good offensively for a few weeks now. Since Week 4, Pittsburgh is 12th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.076). A little more efficiency in the running game has gone a long way for this unit, plus Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 12 touchdowns and only three picks over the last six games. He’s fully comfortable within this offense, and there’s a chance he looks really sharp against Jesse Minter’s aggressive defensive scheme.
Mike Tomlin has also been very good in these games in his career, as he’s 79-55-6 against the spread with lines between +3 and -3. He’s also 42-31-2 ATS as a road underdog, and he’s 39-24-2 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or fewer points. Meanwhile, as head coach of Los Angeles, Jim Harbaugh is just 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS when coming off a road game.
There’s also a good system that applies to the moneyline on this game. Home teams coming off games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 7-22 SU since 2021 in games with lines of +130 to -150 when facing teams that just forced four or more turnovers. That system is 3-1 since the start of this season.
It should also be noted that there’s some sharp money on Pittsburgh here. While there’s a decent chunk of tickets on Los Angeles, our VSiN betting splits show a majority of the handle is on the road team. The Steelers have also moved from +4.5 to +3 in most spots.
Steelers vs. Chargers Player Props
Lean: Herbert To Throw An Interception (-103)
While the Steelers haven’t been great in the secondary this year, they do have eight picks this season. That, combined with the pressure Pittsburgh should be able to get on Herbert, should lead to some opportunities for these Steelers defensive backs to make plays on the ball. Herbert has actually thrown four picks over the last three games, and he has also tossed at least one interception in six of the last seven. He has been very turnover-prone this year, and our OptaAI player prop projections have that continuing this week. OptaAI has Herbert throwing 1.06 picks this week, meaning a small edge to backing him to throw one.
Steelers vs. Chargers Pick
Having a weak secondary can be masked by a dangerous pass rush, and we should see exactly that in this game. And if this one ends up being close late, Rodgers should be able to steal a win for the Steelers. That’s why I’m adding some moneyline to my play of Pittsburgh +3.
Bet: Steelers +3 (-115) & Steelers ML (+136 – 0.5 units)
