In a big AFC North battle, Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals host Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers for some Week 7 Thursday Night Football. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Steelers vs. Bengals
When: Thursday, October 16 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Steelers vs. Bengals Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, October 14. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Steelers -278, Bengals +225
Spread: Steelers -5.5 (-110), Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-110), Under 43.5 (-110)
Steelers vs. Bengals Analysis
It feels a little too easy to back a 4-2 Pittsburgh team against a Flacco-led Cincinnati squad that has lost four consecutive games. Our VSiN betting splits support that sentiment when looking at the way the public is jumping on the Steelers. However, there’s some sharp money on the Bengals, which becomes even more evident when looking at the Circa Sports splits.
Cincinnati actually looks like the right side to me. While this Bengals defense is a complete disaster, it’s not like the Steelers are equipped to torch them. Pittsburgh’s offense might look competent this year, but the team is averaging only 277.8 yards per game and 23.8 points per game. Those aren’t world-beating numbers, and this is an offense that really relies on the running game to succeed. That gives Cincinnati defensive coordinator Al Golden a very clear plan. If the Bengals are quick and vicious in closing gaps, they’ll limit the impact of Rodgers and the passing game. And outside of just scheme and game plan, a better defensive performance should be expected from Cincinnati because this is a divisional home game being played in primetime. This defense also had some decent moments last week, so there should be some momentum heading into this one.
The Bengals offense also looked much better in the second half of last week’s loss to the Packers. Flacco started to get the ball to Ja’Marr Chase and good things happened. Well, the Steelers secondary isn’t as good as the Packers secondary, and Flacco has had more time to dive into Zac Taylor’s playbook. That should only mean good things for this Cincinnati passing game. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Chase Brown finds some holes in this game. Pittsburgh’s run defense has had some issues this year, even if the stats over the last few weeks might not support that.
It’s also worth noting that Thursdays haven’t been very kind to Mike Tomlin. He’s 9-11 straight-up and 8-10-2 against the spread when playing on Thursday in his career. To take that a step further, Tomlin is 2-9 SU when playing away from home on Thursdays, which is good for -12.6 units and an ROI of -69.1%. He just can’t be trusted in these situations. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 10-7-1 ATS off three or more losses in a row under Taylor.
There’s also an interesting trend for total bettors: the Over is 16-4 when Taylor’s Bengals are playing at home after rushing for 75 or fewer yards in their previous game. The average total points scored in those games is 51.8 points. That’s something to monitor heading into this game, as the total is very low and the defenses aren’t great.
Steelers vs. Bengals Player Props
Lean: Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+153)
If you’re looking specifically for a player prop for this game, why not go with Flacco to throw for 2+ touchdowns? Last week, Flacco threw for two touchdowns against a good Packers defense, and he did that without much preparation time. He also did it in the second half, when the Bengals needed to start airing it out. This week, I’m not sure Taylor will be holding Flacco back. Pittsburgh’s secondary is highly exploitable, despite the fact that the team is loaded with big names at defensive back. So, with all of the weapons Flacco has to work with, this could end up being a successful night through the air for the 40-year-old.
Steelers vs. Bengals Pick
I’m taking the points with the Bengals, plus I’m also taking some Cincinnati moneyline. The underdog has won outright in six of the last seven primetime games, and it shouldn’t surprise anybody if it happens here. The Steelers aren’t as good as their record suggests, and the Bengals could find a little something with Flacco under center.
Bet: Bengals +5.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) & Bengals ML (+225 – 0.5 units)
