Steelers vs. Bengals – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
Noah Fant Over 3.5 receptions (-118, DraftKings)
Over 28.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
Veteran TE Mike Gesicki is on IR, and backup Tanner Hudson (five targets, four catches, and a TD last week) is also out. Overall, Fant’s .30 TPRR is tied for first among 71 TEs with at least 25 routes, and his .35 TPRR on in-line targets is tied for first (Evan Engram) out of those 71 TEs. And among that sample, Fant is 12th with 2.10 YPPR on in-line targets. The Steelers give up the most schedule-adjusted FGP to opposing in-line TE targets (+6.4), so it looks like an ideal spot on paper. The Steelers play three veterans at CB who have numerous Pro Bowls between them, which is one reason teams target the middle of the field with TEs against them. Last week, Browns TEs had 16 TGT and 10/110. Back in Week 3 (they had a Week 5 bye, so just three games ago), Patriots TEs had 14 TGT and 11/118/2 with Hunter Henry getting 8/90/2. Fant caught all four of his targets from Joe Flacco last week for 27 yards, and his snaps, routes, and target share should all increase for this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 25.5 rushing yards (-116, DraftKings)
The Steelers are moving toward a three-man committee with Gainwell, rookie Kaleb Johnson, and Jaylen Warren, so this one’s a little risky. But the Bengals also have one of the worst run defenses in the league, and Pittsburgh should be in complete control as 5.5-point road favorites. They may also pull back from using the rookie much until the game is decided in a short week and on a nationally-televised game, since he’s made some big mistakes this year and is just now getting out of the coach’s doghouse.
The Bengals give up the fifth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.31), the third-most rushing YPG (119.7), and they surrender the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs, who see a +7.8 fantasy point increase when facing Cincy. They give up the third-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the running game only (+3.1), and 46% of the rushing attempts the Bengals have faced have been on zone concepts, and they’re allowing a 52.3 success rate on those runs (6th-worst). Among 50 RBs with at least 25 carries so far this year, Gainwell’s 62.5% success rate against those zone concept runs is sixth-best, better than a couple of studs in Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
As for Warren, his 48.7% success rate on those zone runs is 21st, so he’s mediocre on those runs. It’s still a little bit of a shot in the dark, since Gainwell’s more involved in the passing game than the running game, but I think Gainwell has a chance to be the “hot hand” in the backfield for at least a series or two, and I can see him popping off one longer run of 7-10 yards, so he may need only 5-6 carries to get this.
Jonnu Smith Over 27.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
The Browns were likely surprised last week when the first play of the game was a big completion to Darnell Washington for 36 yards, but the Bengals have been warned over the last two weeks that Washington is playing a lot more and actually getting targets, so I don’t think he’s going to catch Cincy off-guard. Jonnu will compete with Washington and also Pat Friermuth for targets, so I can’t say he’s a great bet to hit this, but I think the hype over Washington this week has caused people to lose sight of Jonnu. But the over could certainly be an easy win, since Cincy is THE matchup for TEs. They give up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs lining up in the slot, which is where Jonnu has run the majority of his routes, and Jonnu’s 1.39 YPRR is a solid 20th out of 71 TEs with at least 25 routes this year.
The Bengals will have to put up some kind of fight to keep the Steelers throwing for 3-4 quarters, but Joe Flacco stabilized the offense last week. The Bengals rank only 29th in pressure rate (32.1%), and stud DE Trey Hendrickson is a longshot to play this week, per reports, and Aaron Rodgers’ YPA (7.91>6.00), passer rating (124.2>54.1), and CPOE (3.3%>-7.6%) are significantly better from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. Cincy has also done a great job of preventing big plays in the passing game this year, allowing the sixth-lowest aDot in the league, which only feeds into my Jonnu narrative for this Thursday Night Football game.
Joe Flacco Under 238.5 passing yards (-113, DraftKings)
The Steelers use the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (36.5%), and Flacco averages a massive 5.03 YPA with a 45.8 passer rating on 66 attempts against man, but Ja’Marr Chase has not done well against man coverage this year, and Tee Higgins hasn’t been reliable enough to truly back. The Bengals are down two TEs, and Pittsburgh blitzes at the fourth-highest rate (37.9%), and Joe Flacco’s YPA (5.50>3.98), passer rating (77.5>42.9), and CPOE (4.5%>-7.1%) all plummet against the blitz. They are doing a terrible job using the RBs in the passing game this year, accumulating only 21 receiving yards per game with Chase Brown and Samaje Perine, and Flacco hasn’t hit 239 yards since Week 1, when he threw for 290 yards against, ironically, the Bengals. Flacco should have to throw it a lot, but he has two games this year with 45 attempts and he’s thrown for 219 (last week) and only 199 yards against a bad Ravens defense in Week 2, so I’m relatively confident that he’ll fail to hit 239 yards passing here.
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