On Thursday, October 1, the suddenly rejuvenated Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Steelers vs. Browns
When: Thursday, October 1 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Channel: Prime Video
Steelers vs. Browns Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, September 27. Look around for the best prices!
MXoneyline: Steelers -148, Browns +124
Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-120), Browns +2.5 (+100)
Total: Over 38.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-115)
Steelers vs. Browns Analysis
The Browns were abysmal in a 34-10 Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but they have looked much better over the last two weeks. In wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers, the defense was very good. Over the last two weeks, Cleveland has an EPA/Play Allowed of -0.141. That’d be good for third in the NFL over the course of the entire season, and that’s hard to ignore heading into Thursday. Pittsburgh is currently No. 29 in the NFL in EPA/Play (-0.141) on offense, as Aaron Rodgers’ group is really struggling to efficiently move the ball and put up points. Well, I don’t see that changing against this Cleveland defense. So, how will the Browns offense fare against the Steelers defense?
After an embarrassing Week 1 performance against Jacksonville, Deshaun Watson is starting to settle in nicely as Cleveland’s starter. In Week 2, Watson was 24 for 30 for 238 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks against Tampa Bay. He also threw two touchdowns with no picks against Carolina last week. As long as Watson isn’t handing the ball over to opponents, the Browns offense should be just fine against anyone. That includes the Steelers, who aren’t a top-10 defense in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.050) right now. Pittsburgh is a good team defensively, but the group has a reputation as being elite. I don’t quite see that.
This simply feels like a game in which the Steelers and Browns brands are carrying a lot of weight in looking at the spread. Based on what we have seen this season, a good argument can be made that Cleveland should be favored — and that’s especially true at home.
The only thing to worry about here is that Todd Monken is in his first year as an NFL head coach. He might not be comfortable with the short week of preparation required to win on Thursdays, and Mike McCarthy is 17-8 straight-up on Thursdays in his career. However, that won’t be enough to talk me off the Cleveland side in this one.
Naturally, I also happen to love that our Circa Sports betting splits page shows that the majority of bets have come in on the Steelers, but the smart money looks to be on the Browns. I love it when my initial side vibes with the way the pros are looking.
Steelers vs. Browns Player Props
Deshaun Watson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+285 – 0.5 units)
I took a similar play with Case Keenum in the Monday Night Football game. If I like a team to win, I’m generally going to like the quarterback’s chances of throwing for only two touchdowns. I understand this is expected to be a low-scoring game, but I’m not as sold on the Steelers secondary as most. Also, this isn’t a game that should be impacted by the weather. That said, at +285 odds (available as of 11:00 am PST on Tuesday, September 29), I’ll ride with Watson to have a multi-touchdown game through the air — and I’d probably play that down to +240. Watson has thrown for two touchdowns in each of the last two games, and I think the Browns have a young, underrated group of weapons at wide receiver.
Steelers vs. Browns Pick
I probably won’t be making a habit of going with 1.5-unit plays in these primetime write-ups, but I have really liked these recent ones. We nailed the Broncos on Sunday, and really should have hit the Over in Eagles-Bears on Monday. Well, I have another bigger play in the Thursday game, as I’m risking 1.5 units on Cleveland. Maybe I’m overreacting to a couple of weeks, but I feel much better about what I have seen from the Browns than I have the Steelers. I’m also sprinkling the Watson prop. So, I’m risking two units on Cleveland here. What can go wrong?
Bet: Brown ML (+125 – 1.5 units) & Watson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+285 – 0.5 units)
