Starting today, we will have 61 consecutive days with an NFL or Division I college football game. Thanks to Rex Beyers for pointing that out.
So let’s start today’s newsletter with football.
🏈 Thursday Night in Cleveland
The surprising Browns host the Steelers tonight in a Week 4 matchup of 2-1 teams in the AFC Central.
Pittsburgh is -3 at Circa and -2.5 at DraftKings.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen thinks the market has the wrong favorite.
“Based on what we have seen this season, a good argument can be made that Cleveland should be favored — and that’s especially true at home.”
Dave Tuley sees tonight’s matchup similarly.
“The Browns have the better defense now, and the gap on offense has closed.”
>> Tuley’s Takes on Every Week 4 Game
Steve Makinen’s Week 4 Analytics Report has a trend worth considering with tonight’s total at 38.5:
Twenty-one of the last 31 Thursday night games featuring a home underdog have gone Under. Those home dogs have averaged just 16.3 points.
>> Steve’s Week 4 Analytics Report
>> Build Your Week 4 Card: Picks and Previews for Every NFL Game
Have an opinion on Steelers-Browns? Tell us what you’re betting — and see what other VSiN readers are seeing tonight.
>> Join the Conversation in the VSiN Community
🧰 Build Your Own TNF Card
BOLT will have its Steelers-Browns player prop recommendations after 1 p.m. ET today. You can also dig into our AI projections, prop analyzer, betting splits and picks from VSiN hosts and guests.
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
📊 DraftKings & Circa NFL Betting Splits →
🎯 Picks From VSiN Hosts & Guests →
Programming Note: Keyshawn Johnson and Patrick Meagher will provide live commentary on tonight’s game from 8-11 p.m. ET.
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Have you checked out the Survivor Sweat marketplace yet?
I was browsing through the sold listings and found this one: 1% of a live Circa Survivor entry sold for $105.
The entry had already used Jacksonville, Kansas City and San Francisco.
For $105, someone bought a piece of the quest for $25 million.
>> Shop the Survivor Sweat Marketplace
Survivor Sweat is the official marketplace for Circa Sports football contests.
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🏈 Low-Wattage College Football
There are only two FBS games tonight:
Western Kentucky (+2) at New Mexico State — 8 p.m. ET, CBSN
North Texas (-1.5) vs. Tulsa — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
But the betting market has already made one of them interesting.
North Texas opened +2 at Tulsa and has now flipped all the way to -1.5.
One possible reason: Tulsa starting QB Baylor Hayes (knee) is a game-time decision. Rain is also expected in Tulsa.
Adam Burke has best bets for both of tonight’s games.
>> Adam’s Thursday CFB Best Bets
Steve Makinen also has a play on North Texas-Tulsa — made before the line flipped.
>> Steve’s CFB Week 5 Analytics Report
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⚾ One Game Left
The White Sox, Yankees and Padres all advanced with 2-0 sweeps, leaving us with just one Game 3 tonight.
(For the record, I wrote that sentence in the fifth inning of the Cubs’ debacle.)
Phillies (-109) at Braves (-103) — 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
I asked Adam Burke for his thoughts after Day 2 of the playoffs.
He thinks Philadelphia has an important pitching advantage tonight.
“My guess is that they’re going to try to get as many outs from Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Jhoan Duran as possible on Thursday. Grant Holmes will either start or bulk for the Braves. I do like the situation better for Philadelphia in that regard, though Nola has a penchant for giving up homers and those matter more in October.”
Adam also thinks Cleveland’s initial Division Series price may be a little high, with Chicago’s power particularly important in October.
And in Rays-Yankees, he points to New York’s power as the big story. Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees hit four homers against a Boston staff built to limit the long ball.
Adam will post his Phillies-Braves best bets and Division Series previews Thursday.
Saturday’s Division Series
White Sox (+130) at Guardians (-150) — 1 p.m. ET, TBS
Phillies-Braves winner at Dodgers — 4 p.m. ET, FOX
Yankees at Rays — 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS
Padres at Brewers — 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Series prices from Circa.
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