NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I am continuing to offer up a side and total selection on every one of this year’s NFL postseason games. In repeating what I said last week, I feel confident doing so because very few people dig into the stats, trends, and matchups for every game as much as I do. The Divisional Round was a wash for me, as I was perfect on two games, while missing the others. The Rams’ finish was the ultra-disappointment, as it seemed for certain they were going to get out of Chicago with a 7-point win. It was their second straight game in which they won but failed to cover the point spread, a true rarity in recent NFL postseason history.
In the end, I was 4-4, moving my playoff record to 11-9, with my futures board still intact. Recall that my Shared Traits analysis found the Rams and Patriots as the most championship-worthy teams from each conference. Moving on to the conference title games here, hopefully you caught my pieces from earlier in the week on the Conference Championship Trends, as well as this week’s loaded NFL Analytics Report, because between those two pieces, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I have come up with the following leans for this Sunday’s two games.
Sunday, January 25, 2026
New England (-4.5) at Denver
I’m not providing any breaking news in saying that the injury to Broncos’ QB Bo Nix is the biggest story affecting the AFC title game and the betting surrounding it. How big of a deal is it, though? We have seen this week that most bookmakers are assigning a deduction of anywhere between 4 to 5 points to the Broncos. The real question, however, is how it actually affects them. While backup Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass this season, he is still considered among the most competent backups in the league. To me, what it comes down to is this. Are the Broncos going to have to rely on Stidham to win (or cover) the game, or are they going to rely on their defense and Stidham managing the game? If I’m head coach Sean Payton, I am certainly hoping for the latter, and I am going to bet accordingly.
Going back to the Divisional Round, against an equally tough Houston defense, the Patriots gained just 248 yards of offense. The only reason they won handily and went Over the total in a 28-16 win was that the Texans threw four interceptions, one of them turning into an actual defensive TD. On the other hand, Denver had to play a fast-paced game in the divisional round against the Bills because they were facing a potent offense. I feel like both of those factors will converge this week and result in a game played closer to the vest by both coaches.
Looking at some of the trends/systems I was able to uncover this week in my studies, these are some of my favorites. 1) Home teams are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) in the last 19 AFC title clashes. 2) Home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 26-8 SU and 20-14 ATS (58.8%) run in the championship round, including 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) versus teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season. Of course, both of these angles favor the Broncos.
We also know that home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS run since 2016, and hosts allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 24-7 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2002. If that weren’t enough, this head-to-head series has seen underdogs go 5-2 SU and ATS since November 2014.
Finally, in looking at the DK betting splits for the week, we see 69% of the handle and 72% of the bets loading up on New England. Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). There is a similar disparity on the total, with 81% of the handle backing Over. Well, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group has performed miserably with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. I look for a close game that could go either way. Let’s say 19-16 is the score.
NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Give me Denver +4.5 and Under 42.5 in the AFC title game
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-2.5)
Since these NFC West rivals played a 38-37 classic back in December, Seattle took that win and hasn’t looked back, winning three straight games in dominating fashion while outscoring opponents 81-19. Their defense has flat-out dominated in that run. So why am I still leery of laying the 2.5 points with them at home this Sunday with the NFC crown on the line?
Well, for one, I can’t get over the fact that the Rams dominated that game for three quarters and actually gained 585 yards of offense in the contest. Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford threw for 457 of those. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it seems bettors are not giving the Rams a chance after they had to survive their first two road playoff contests. In fact, 77% of the handle and 80% of the bets are on the Seahawks. You typically don’t see that type of disparity in a huge NFL contest, yet the line is not getting to the key 3-point number.
Bettors may be overreacting to Seattle’s dominant 41-6 win over SF last week, not knowing that NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 23-18 SU but 14-26-1 ATS (35%) when favored in their last 41 opportunities.
Regarding head coach Sean McVay’s team, I can’t recall a team that lost three playoff games in a single season ATS. Is that a blessing for this week or a curse? If you recall, my Shared Traits Analysis from a couple of weeks ago showed the Rams as a “perfect team” in terms of NFL championship DNA, scoring a perfect 27 out of 27 in the strength rating/statistical categories I examined. I need to stick to my guns on that one, and the Rams’ best trait is Stafford and his ability to make big plays through the air. Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 34-39 SU but 43-28-2 ATS (60.6%) since 2004.
Looking closer at some other trend angles backing the Rams here, in the last 30 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 18-12 SU but just 13-17 ATS (43.3%). This trend dates back to 2003. Plus, home teams that won one or two games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3 points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 16-21 SU and 15-22 ATS (40.5%) in their last 37 playoff tries.
Getting back to that last regular-season game in Seattle, recall that the Seahawks were 1.5-point favorites, and the Rams’ cover advanced the underdogs’ record in this series to 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Plus, it puts the Rams in a road rematch/revenge scenario. Well, they are 12-5 SU and 15-2 ATS in the last 17 road rematches and teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 23-9 SU & 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in their last 33 revenge tries.
All of that said, I don’t think this week’s game is going to be a shootout like the last time, and I am concerned with both QB Sam Darnold in this big spot and the injury to RB Zach Charbonnet. That game last month was an outlier in terms of its explosiveness, as Under the total is 10-5 in the set at Seattle since 2012. Plus, the last 14 times a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, Under the total is 9-5 (64.3%). I am expecting a 23-20 type of game, Rams take it.
NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Give me the Rams +2.5 and Under 46.5 at Seattle
For more NFL Conference Championship Weekend best bets, visit the NFL Playoffs betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
