NFL Week 10 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Had a second straight 5-3 showing in Week 9, which I’ll take, but as always, it seems I am lamenting the losses more than I’m celebrating the wins. I lost a couple of bad ones on Sunday late afternoon as Kansas City and New Orleans were clearly outmatched, but the one game I am still seething about is the Chicago-Cincinnati debacle in which the Bengals just needed to make a tackle of a tight end 40 yards from the end zone to secure a cover. Those hurt, and it feels like I’ve had more of those than being on the other side. Oh well, onward and upward hopefully. I’ll move on to Week 10 with a season record of 38-42 ATS (47.5%) as I continue the chase of .500 and above. Even that would be a very low mark for me compared to recent years, but getting out of a deep hole is never easy. After poring through this week’s Analytics Report, betting splits, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 10.
Thursday, November 6, 2025
Las Vegas (2-6) at Denver (7-2)
The Thursday night tilt for this week features a huge home favorite, but that shouldn’t be an issue since NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 32-3 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season. Plus, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-28 SU and 42-27-3 ATS (60.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season. Denver is hot, Las Vegas is not. It feels like pushing an underdog play here would be a force, especially since public bettors at DraftKings aren’t hopping aboard the Broncos train all that much, with only 51% of the handle on them as of Thursday afternoon. The Raiders lost a tough one by trying for a 2-point conversion in OT on Sunday versus Jacksonville, and Las Vegas is 37-51 ATS (42%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015.
This retread head coaching system will also be in play: Since 2015, when coming off a loss, the record for retread head coaches has been an ugly 139-176 ATS (44.1%). Head coach Sean Payton’s team has won its last six games and thus qualifies for a pair of streak systems here: 1) NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-15 SU and 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%) in the next game when favored. 2) NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 16-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS (75%) record in their last 17 tries.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Let’s go with Denver -9.5 on TNF vs. Las Vegas
Sunday, November 9, 2025
Cleveland (2-6) at New York Jets (1-7)
When a team that is struggling on the defensive side of the ball gives up two of its supposed top players at the trade deadline, you have to assume it was like a fire sale. Particularly when the recently hired head coach is a defensive-minded guy. Head coach Aaron Glenn clearly didn’t value the players he gave up. Either that, or the Jets know they have to tank the rest of the way to line up for a top quarterback next April. In any case, this doesn’t seem to be a team I’d like to get anywhere close to when it means my betting dollars.
The ironic thing is that New York actually just got its first win in gutsy fashion prior to the bye week. Well, let’s not overlook that the New York Jets are 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when coming off SU win since 2017, and 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven post-bye week home games. Cleveland, on the other hand, is playing with some purpose and has been extremely tough on defense all season long. Supposedly, defense travels, thus making the Browns a worthy road favorite here. They are also out of their own bye week, putting this strong system on the line: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-47 SU and 96-64-4 ATS since 1999, 60%). If perhaps you’re worried that neither of these teams might be worth it as chalk, consider that favorites are 11-2 ATS in the CLE-NYJ set since 2004.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Cleveland -1.5 to take care of business in New York
New Orleans (1-8) at Carolina (5-4)
If you’re anything like me, you aren’t really comfortable backing either side in this NFC South tilt between New Orleans and Carolina. The Saints have been awful lately, but Carolina is in a very unfamiliar line situation, being heavily favored against a divisional foe it has not played well against. In fact, you’d have to go back to 2022 to find a game in which the Panthers beat the Saints by enough points to cover this week’s line.
That said, I ran a forecasting model on this contest, and it projected a 15.4-11.6 score for this game, easily the lowest scoring projection of the week. It makes sense, too. Neither team is clicking offensively, both seem to be milking the clock in an attempt to shorten the games, and by my effective numbers, both teams are about 3 PPG better on the defensive side of the ball than on offense. Let’s seriously consider an Under here.
We have some additional analytics to boost that, with the Saints heading into their bye week after this: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 38-16-2 since 2013, 70.4%). Very tough to see anything coming about offensively in this one.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Under 39.5 in New Orleans-Carolina
Baltimore (3-5) at Minnesota (4-4)
Is it safe to assume that Baltimore is “back” after its 28-6 win at Miami last Thursday night, with QB Lamar Jackson making a triumphant return from the IL? To me, that is a dangerous take, especially as they face a potentially tough contest on Sunday in Minnesota, as the Vikings come off an even bigger win than the Ravens. They just walked into Detroit and came away with a 27-24 decision, playing equally well on both sides of the ball. The return of JJ McCarthy may have even been more impressive than that of Jackson.
The Vikings have typically been a tough home underdog too, going 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four. With that in mind, I think the Ravens are in for a battle this week, but I’m more confident in believing the battle will be more of a defensive one than in backing them. Lost in the Jackson return last week was the fact that the defense continued to play well, and has given up just 39 points in the last three games. And lost in the Minnesota win was the fact that they held the Lions to 24 points, matching the lowest home total for them since Thanksgiving of last year.
Plus, the McCarthy-led offense only put up 258 yards in their 27-point “outburst.” Typically, that type of yardage total would only produce around 18 points. Let’s not forget that, prior to his injury, in McCarthy’s only home start, the Vikings scored 6 points versus the Falcons. To me, this just doesn’t feel like a game that should have a total around 50. I believe that’s why 81% of the handle at DraftKings, which is usually the sharper money, is on the Under. 64% of the bets, meanwhile, are on the over. I’ll side with the sharper money here.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Ravens-Vikings to come up shy of the lofty 49.5 total
New York Giants (2-7) at Chicago (5-3)
I really thought that after the Giants lost RB Cam Skattebo a couple of weeks ago, there was a chance they might throw it in the tank. I regret not fading them last week against San Francisco, but even in the loss, I was impressed with their effort. They still put up 24 points and 296 yards on a pretty tough 49ers defense. In fact, I would say overall that the offense has definitely turned a corner this year behind rookie QB Jaxson Dart, as they have hit the 20-point mark in five of the last six games while scoring 24.2 PPG. Well, in that sense, there’s not really much reason to think that the pace will slow down this week against one of the league’s worst defenses in Chicago.
In terms of matchups, this one is one of the better spots for rookie QBs: Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 55-72 SU but 70-56 ATS (55.6%). The Bears allowed 42 last week to Cincinnati and 30 the prior game against Baltimore, minus Lamar. Overall, Chicago allows opponents 3.5 PPG above their season averages, which would put the Giants right around 25-26 points here, making them a very live underdog. In fact, the forecasting method I mentioned earlier projects head coach Brian Daboll’s team to reach 31 and be the second-highest scoring team this week.
Of course, Chicago put up 47 last week in the miracle win at Cincy. Unfortunately, that doesn’t bode well for this week’s teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 22-15 SU but 11-26 ATS (29.7%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012. Plus, after wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 48-74-6 ATS (39.3%) in their last 128.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll take the +4.5 points with a rejuvenated Giants team
Arizona (3-5) at Seattle (6-2)
Arizona certainly seems right about sticking with QB Jacoby Brissett for the interim, considering how much better the offense has looked in his starts. That said, right now there is no team clicking more offensively than Seattle, and I’m not sure the Cardinals, even with the improved look on offense, have the horses to keep up. As it is, this has been a one-sided divisional series lately with Seattle 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus rival Arizona since 2022.
Currently, in terms of my Effective Stats, the Seahawks have the best offensive yards per play numbers in the NFL, as they are averaging 6.43 YPP. Arizona is actually 28th in the league in that category at 5.21. So, this is the biggest offensive mismatch of the week. As such, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings metric indicates that Seattle should actually be a 15.1-point favorite here.
I know that there will be a lot of bettors this week who will argue that the Cardinals are hot and much improved with Brissett. However, they will be going up against this lucrative system on Sunday: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-46 SU and 18-41-4 ATS (30.5%) in game #4 since 2003. This is, of course, also a rematch game from September when Seattle won 23-20 in Arizona. You should be aware that Arizona is on a 4-17 SU and 7-14 ATS skid in its last 21 same-season rematch games.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 6.5 points with Seattle on Sunday
Detroit (5-3) at Washington (3-6)
Just how bad has it gotten for Washington this season, not even 10 months removed from an appearance in the NFC title game? Last week’s SNF loss to Seattle may have been rock bottom when you consider how much Seahawks’ QB Sam Darnold carved up the defense in the first half and then the game ended with Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels in an arm brace. Daniels won’t be available this week as they meet up with a hungry Lions team that will be seeking payback for the playoff ouster this past January. Oh, and they will also be looking to bounce back from an unexpected loss to the Vikings this past Sunday.
Well, I think we have to at least consider the fact that Detroit’s head coach Dan Campbell is on a 12-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss. At the same time, Washington is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019. It would seem that we have enough negative momentum on Washington and enough motivation on Detroit for warranting a play. Of course, I also need to consult the metrics, and in producing the same forecast method I have used successfully in accurately gauging four of the last five Super Bowl games, the model calls for a 24-13 Lions’ win here with Mariota in for Daniels. I’ll back both ends of this decisive projection since I know that the Lions’ offense typically doesn’t fire as well on the road.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Detroit -7.5 and Under 49.5 for the matchup in Washington
Pittsburgh (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
I really found a lot of this week’s totals to be curious, and not so much reflective of the recent paces or styles of play of teams. This Sunday night game was one of the more interesting numbers in that regard, with a total set at 45.5. That number would be accurate for recent Steelers’ teams that were defense-first, or the initial Harbaugh-led Chargers teams that leaned heavily on the running game on defense. Neither team is in that mode right now. In fact, if you look at the recent log of games of these teams, Pittsburgh and QB Aaron Rodgers have put up 20+ points in six straight outings while averaging 25.2 PPG offensively. They have also allowed 88 points in the last three games.
Meanwhile, LA has scored at least 24 in each of its last four outings, averaging 28.3 PPG. Both of these teams are in an offensive groove behind talented QBs and the number doesn’t reflect it. It makes me even more curious to see that as of Thursday afternoon, 95% of the handle at DraftKings was on the Under. I love it when such huge public one-sided action goes against what I believe for a game. If you haven’t noticed, the Chargers are 7-2 Over the total in their last nine home games, and we know weather is never an issue at SoFi Stadium. That should aid Rodgers and the Pittsburgh attack.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 45.5 in the LAC-PIT SNF tilt
Monday, November 10, 2025
Philadelphia (6-2) at Green Bay (5-2)
We have to wait till Monday night for the biggest game on the NFC board this week, as Green Bay welcomes Philadelphia to Lambeau Field. Since their two season-opening wins at home against the Lions and Commanders, the Packers have had just one truly solid showing, that being two weeks ago at Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They are off a home loss in which it felt to me as if they were holding something back, perhaps in anticipation for this showdown with the Eagles, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs this past January.
The primetime spotlight should help motivate head coach Matt LaFleur’s team to get it turned around, since they are on runs of 10-3 SU in the last 13 and 5-2 ATS in the last seven on MNF. They are also 20-8-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 primetime games overall. However, the biggest factor in my backing of the hosts for this one is that the line (-2.5) doesn’t reflect the market values of the teams nor the current statistical metrics that I value in handicapping. In terms of the market perceptions, my Bettors’ Ratings indicate that Green Bay should be a 4.9-point favorite. Similarly, but even more dramatically, my Effective Play-by-play Ratings show that the Pack should be favored by 9.1 points.
I could see an argument that the Eagles might be in better shape for this one coming out of their bye week, but the analytics say otherwise: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-17 SU and 27-14 ATS since 2019, 65.9%). Plus, Philadelphia is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine post-bye week games versus NFC foes. What about the recent history between these teams? Well, favorites are 10-4 ATS in the PHI-GB series since the start of the 2004-05 season. I expect a big showing from Green Bay here.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 2.5 points with the Packers on MNF
For more NFL Week 10best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
