NFL Week 11 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Going 0-3 in the primetime games ruined what otherwise would have been a fantastic Week 10 for me. TNF, SNF, MNF doomed me, a change from what had been a strong run prior in those games. Fortunately, the majority of my games were in the early and late Sunday afternoon tilts. At least I’m not crying about getting hosed in any of the losses, as it seemed that most of the NFL games this past weekend were decisive on the point spreads/totals. I’ll move on to Week 11 with a season record of 43-46 ATS (48.3%). For as much as that is a very low mark for me compared to recent years, I have been digging out of the early-season run I put myself in. Besides these best bets, hopefully you had a chance to read my other NFL pieces this week, specifically my Strength Ratings Results article and this week’s NFL Analytics Report. Both helped me prep for this week’s action. After poring through all of it, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 11.
Thursday, November 13, 2025
NY Jets (2-7) at New England (8-2)
For as much as we are looking at a 2-7 vs. 8-2 divisional matchup, I believe the books are trying to insinuate this game will be a lot like last week’s ugly TNF affair between the Raiders and Broncos. I just don’t see it that way. As of yesterday, the Jets, despite winning back-to-back games, were still juggling with who would be their starting QB. They have already just gotten rid of two of their top defensive players last week, so the roster and cohesiveness must be a mess. Let’s not forget that their back-to-back wins were over the Browns and Bengals, two reeling teams.
These particular trends are very concerning too: NY Jets are 8-26 SU and 10-22 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012, 12-27 ATS (30.8%) when coming off a SU win since 2017, and 20-36 ATS (35.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016. The team on the other sideline is not reeling and figures to show up ready to roll in front of a national TV primetime audience. New England is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016.
There is an intriguing TNF system that also comes into play because of the Patriots’ current winning streak: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 17-1 SU and 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%) record in their last 18 tries. I find it curious that this game is not heavily bet on the hosts, too, with only a 48/52 split.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Give me New England (-12.5) to take care of Thursday night business
Sunday, November 16, 2025
Green Bay (5-3) at NY Giants (2-8)
Green Bay’s offense has not looked great over the last couple of weeks, and injuries/conservativism/weather have all played a factor. However, I believe it has led to the line for Sunday’s game in New York being more fairly priced. There is a decent backing for the Packers at DraftKings, with 66% on bets on GB, but that shouldn’t be of concern, as since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%).
There is a great opportunity to get things going for head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense this week, as the Giants’ defense has been porous, especially against the run. The fact that the Packers defense has also been playing great should also bode well for them: Alternatively to above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 19-9 SU and 22-6 ATS (78.6%) since 2015. You probably know from reading these best bets columns that I have been a huge proponent of Giants’ QB Jaxson Dart. He is out this week and being replaced by Jameis Winston of all people. That will make the game interesting to watch, but it doesn’t make it any more likely that New York will compete. Daboll is gone, Dart, Nabers, and Skattebo are all out. I don’t see where this team will get the mojo from to give a desperate Green Bay team a game.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7 points with the Packers on the road
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Buffalo (6-3)
If there’s one particular trend I have come to understand about the Bills, it’s that you can typically rely on their offense to perform at home. On the road, they are quite inconsistent, and I have shared road Under trends about QB Josh Allen for the last couple of seasons, but at home, the numbers back up my theory. Buffalo has scored at least 20 points in 22 straight home games, averaging 30.6. They also allow 19+ PPG to the average offensive opponent. Well, Tampa Bay and QB Baker Mayfield aren’t the average offensive opponent, scoring 24.4 PPG.
They do particularly well offensively in the underdog role, as Mayfield is as strong a competitor as there is in the NFL. He is 19-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2020 and Tampa Bay is on 27-10 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog. The DK betting splits also show 69% of bettors backing Over here, which should be great since the average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! My Bettors Ratings indicate that this total should be closer to 51.5, not 47.5, and those total ratings have been doing fabulous this season.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll go Over 47.5 in TB-BUF on Sunday
Cincinnati (3-6) at Pittsburgh (5-4)
Although the Steelers are just 1-1 in the last two games, I believe that both of those recent outings have had head coach Mike Tomlin’s team playing a style more to his liking. Controlled passing game, more dedication to the run, and solid pressure defense are the traits he has become known for as a head coach. That is much of the reason why Pittsburgh is 106-74 Under the total (58.9%) since 2015. They tend to go Under a lot against the league’s worst teams, too. Pittsburgh is 36-13 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013,
A lot of bettors will probably point to the game a few weeks ago involving these teams, which ended in a 33-31 shootout as a blueprint for how this game will go. I tend to lean the opposite, since the Steelers now have a good idea of what to expect from QB Joe Flacco and the Bengals’ offense. Let’s not overlook that Flacco is 18-9 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016.
The Bengals come off their bye week, and surely you’ve seen me tout this angle before: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 42-24-1 since 2021). The fact that the Cincy defense struggled before the bye also comes into play: Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-14-1 Under since 2014). I expect this to be much like last year, when the initial series game between these teams produced 82 points, and the rematch just 36.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 49.5 in the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati rivalry game
Houston (4-5) at Tennessee (1-8)
How big of a comeback win was that last week for Houston? Well, if you ask me, it was a season-saver, and trimmed what would have been a three-game deficit to the Jaguars into just one. While neither team is looking good for the AFC South crown, the result could prove monumental down the road when it comes to the wildcard race.
I also feel it is the type of outcome that can propel a team forward for the next few games, especially when a weaker opponent is on deck. Strangely, this is a road favorite scenario where it seems bettors at DK don’t agree with me, as 68% of the handle is backing the worst team in the league for some reason. In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). That said, the bets majority are going with Houston, 60%. Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%).
The Titans come out of their bye week hoping to end a four-game skid. However, the system says to play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 47-19 SU and 37-27-2 ATS since ’99, 58.7%). If you recall, back in Week 4, Houston dominated Tennessee for its eighth ATS win in the last 10 head-to-head tries. Well, teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 86-28 SU and 71-43 ATS (62.3%) in the rematch.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Even with Davis Mills in at QB, I’ll back Houston -6.5 at Tennessee
Chicago (6-3) at Minnesota (4-5)
Admittedly, I’ve been pretty hard on Chicago this year, as it feels like every win they get could easily be described as “lucky” and every loss is decisive. Well, the one loss that the Bears have suffered that looked like it could be a win was against Minnesota in the opener. After dominating for three quarters versus the Vikings, the latter suddenly came to life and pulled out a late win on MNF. The rematch is this week, and based on won-lost records, it sure looks like the season has turned in favor of the Bears since that game. Well, teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record of 20% or better outright have gone 46-16 SU and 39-23 ATS (62.9%) in the rematch contest.
Of course, that first head-to-head contest carried on a trend that finds road teams are 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the CHI-MIN NFC North divisional series. It’s usually an issue laying points with the Vikings at home anyway, as Minnesota is only 11-23 ATS in its last 34 games as a home favorite, but in this particular spot, it seems that Chicago is the better team, gaining confidence with each fortunate win, and getting points.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll side with the Bears getting +3 points in Minnesota
Seattle (7-2) at LA Rams (7-2)
This game has had me curious from the opening line, as I felt like the game automatically sat in a home team -3 scenario. When it opened at -2.5, I thought that oddsmakers must be telling us something, and that would agree 100% with my Effective Strength and Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, which both show the Seahawks as being the league’s top team right now. However, the line has since climbed up to Rams -3 behind 91% handle on the hosts. Curiously, there are only 56% bets on that side, so it seems as if the sharp money might be on LA.
All of that said, I feel that both of these teams are red-hot offensively, and both quarterbacks seem poised to put on a show Sunday on the fast track at SoFi Stadium. It just doesn’t feel like a defensive slugfest is coming to me. The Rams have scored 42, 34, and 35 points in their last three outings. Seattle has put up 44, 38, and 27.
The game is loaded with offensive stars. Sometimes the obvious thing is the way to go, and bettors at DK are agreeing, with 70% of bets on the Over side of the ledger. The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! Last year’s game between these teams in LA was a 30-25 decision. I could see something similar here.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Over 48.5 in Rams-Seahawks showdown
Baltimore (4-5) at Cleveland (2-7)
Can’t recall the last time I saw a Baltimore total sub-40 in a game in which QB Lamar Jackson was playing. I guess it’s sort of understandable in that the Ravens are facing the Browns, who haven’t scored well in general this season, but Jackson & Co. have ripped the Cleveland defense lately, averaging 31.8 PPG in the last five, and the Browns’ offense has actually been more productive in recent weeks, scoring 21.3 PPG in their last three. Furthermore, Over the total has converted in the last four meetings between the Ravens and the Browns.
That said, I also can’t get past a couple of key trends here. First, Baltimore is 46-25 ATS (64.8%) in road/neutral games since 2017. Second, Cleveland is 22-41 ATS (34.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015. This will be a rematch of the Week 2 contest won by Baltimore 41-17. Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 86-28 SU and 71-43 ATS (62.3%) in the rematch. The betting splits don’t scream anything unusual except 90% of the handle being in on the Under. Having that disparity going against Lamar and the Ravens’ offense looks dangerous.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Baltimore -7.5 and Over 39.5 in its game at Cleveland
Kansas City (5-4) at Denver (8-2)
Are oddsmakers pointing us in the direction that this game is going to go, with an 8-2 home team playing as a 3.5-point underdog to a 5-4 divisional rival? It sure seems like it, especially with as bad as Denver looked last Thursday night against the Raiders. However, Kansas City is just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020, and Denver is 22-6 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019, so I am going to tread lightly on picking a side here. Instead, I am going to look at an Under wager, as I believe this has the makings of a physical, defensive-oriented contest. After all, Denver is 105-70 Under the total (60%) since 2015, and the Chiefs are 9-3-1 Under the total in their last 12 post-bye week road games.
However, what really catches my eye is some system data. For one, the total is dropping despite 79% DK handle on the Over. I call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of HANDLE has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Similarly, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%).
Denver goes into its bye, and this system says to play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 39-16-2 since ‘13, 70.9%). KC comes out of its bye still reeling from the loss at Buffalo. On that note, we should play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 33-17-1 Under since 1992). The high game stakes have me thinking it will be a tight, low-scoring affair as well.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: It all points to Under 44.5 for me in Kansas City-Denver
Detroit (6-3) at Philadelphia (7-2)
The reaction to Philadelphia’s 10-7 win at Green Bay on Monday night was interesting. Of course, everyone loved how the Eagles’ defense dominated the injury-riddled, struggling Packers offense. At the same time, they were loaded up with criticism on the Eagles’ offensive stars for their struggles in the game. That said, they were facing off against a stout Packers’ defense that was prepared for a slugfest. The same can’t be said for Detroit’s defense, which has allowed 22 and 27 points the last two games to the Commanders minus Jayden Daniels and Minnesota.
Let’s not forget, the Eagles finally seemed to be clicking again offensively before the Packers game. What does this all add up to for me? Well, I think we are going to see a much different type of game than we saw Monday night, and I expect both teams to play well offensively. It wouldn’t be something new in terms of how these teams have played one another, as Over the total has converted in all nine meetings between Detroit and Philadelphia since 2007.
The total has climbed a bit since opening, as 68% of bettors have flocked to the Over. Well, the average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! My Bettors’ Ratings, which have hit at 57.4% this season when projecting Overs, say we should expect 48.3 points here.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Over 46.5 in the DET-PHI Sunday night tilt
Monday, November 17, 2025
Dallas (3-5) at Las Vegas (2-7)
When we last saw the Cowboys, they were laying an egg at home to Arizona on Monday Night Football. Well, they get their chance to redeem themselves on the same stage this week when they travel to Allegiant Stadium to take on the Raiders. The analytics data I have suggests that we should see a different Cowboys team this time around. For one, Dallas is 27-11 SU and 24-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, and for two, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 18-7 SU and 17-8 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016.
Not surprisingly, much of the money is on Dallas here, 83% handle, 77% bets, according to the DK splits. Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). We also have a notable intra-conference trend that has emerged in MNF games (AFC vs. NFC), where home teams are just 19-39-2 ATS (32.8%) over the last 60 games.
Speaking of that matchup, with Dallas coming out of its bye week, a pair of unique betting systems will be in play: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-48 SU and 96-65-4 ATS since 1999, 59.6%), and when facing non-conference opponents. (Record: 35-16-3 ATS since 2000, 68.6%). Dallas has been a pretty good post-bye week team, going 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS run in the last 20. If that weren’t enough, Favorites are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the DAL-LVR series at the Raiders. I imagine this will be close to a home game for head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s team. I expect a big effort.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Dallas -3.5 as the Monday night road favorite
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