NFL Week 12 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
A strong week finished off with an easy Cowboys’ winner on Monday night brought my season record back to .500 at 50-50-1 ATS. While I’m not going to rejoice in this since it’s far below the standard that I have set with this best bets column over the last two years for VSiN, considering that just a handful of weeks ago I was sitting at eight games under .500 and 43.8%, I am at least feeling better about things. We’ll see if the momentum can keep going in Week 12. After poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for the weekend.
Sunday, November 24, 2025
NY Jets at Baltimore (-13.5)
There are very few teams in the league that get to play the role of double-digit home favorite as often as the Ravens do in the regular season. They have done so seven times since 2019, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. The game that started that stretch was one against these same Jets, a 42-21 decision. In that span, the Baltimore defense has allowed just 11.6 PPG. Incidentally, my Bettors’ Ratings call for New York to get just 15 here.
Are they deserving of this big of a chalk role this week against the Jets, even with their 5-5 record? Well, I certainly wouldn’t want to be on the other side of the equation. After all, the NY Jets own an ugly 12-49 SU and 20-39 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016. Just this past Thursday, they lost by 13 at New England in a game that I felt they played well in. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has won four straight games to climb back in the hunt in the AFC North Division, and BALTIMORE is 10-2 SU and ATS in games with the Jets since 1997. My Power Ratings, which have enjoyed a big season, particularly in non-divisional conference matchups, say Baltimore should be favored by 14.2. The public bettors at DK aren’t really eating up the Ravens either.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 13.5 with Baltimore at home, let’s say 31-13
New York Giants at Detroit (-10.5)
Another one of the often huge home favorites in recent years has been the Detroit Lions. They are always outstanding on the home field, particularly offensively, where they have scored 20+ points in all but one of their last 28 home contests, averaging 32.9 in the process. However, they have been off lately, scoring 24 points or less in four of their last five contests. At the same time, the Giants, despite having to change QBs last game, maintained their streak of scoring 20+ points in six straight games. They are proving to be a very pesky underdog all season long.
This week, it seems as if Jaxson Dart will be back under center, a huge deal since he was quite impressive in his stint running the offense before the concussion against Chicago a couple of weeks ago. With heavy money on the Lions (86% handle 77% bets at DK), and them getting ready for a huge battle with Green Bay on Thursday, I have a tough time seeing them make this game easy. Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%).
We also have a trend that shows Detroit’s QB Jared Goff is 10-7 SU but 5-12 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018. And another one that indicates road teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the NYG-DET series. However, the one tidbit I love the most comes from this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, and I would call it a typically NFL trap system: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-66 SU but 51-27-1 ATS (65.4%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: I’ll take the Giants as the huge +10.5-point dog in Detroit
New England (-5.5) at Cincinnati
From all indications, it sure seems as if QB Joe Burrow is ready to step back in and lead the Bengals this week against New England. The +5.5 point line sure makes it feel like it, as it has moved 3 points since the insinuation that he would be in. It would give them an incredible lift, as even though Joe Flacco has done some amazing things in his absence, this is clearly Burrow’s team. Already, this team is averaging 33.6 PPG at home in five games this season.
New England has been playing incredibly well, no doubt about it, and there are very few things to knock the Patriots on, but defensively, my effective numbers show them holding opponents just 1.7 points below their scoring averages. Cincy should be able to score well here. There are also several trends backing the hosts here. First, Cincinnati is on a 27-13 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016. They are also 49-29 ATS (62.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015, and 27-20 ATS (57.4%) as an underdog since 2020. Finally, above all others, Cincinnati’s head coach Zac Taylor is on a 14-11 SU and 18-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%. This team comes to play when faced against the best, and should have some extra juice this week with Burrow in the fold.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati +5.5 at home versus New England
Seattle (-13.5) at Tennessee
For as good as Seattle’s numbers have been this season, coming off of the disappointing loss at the Rams last Sunday, covering 13.5 points on the road is a very difficult spot for any NFL team. In fact, since 2019, there have only been 17 such games, and these favorites are 6-10-1 ATS, including 2-4-1 ATS in inter-conference action. I have to believe very few of these road teams were second-place teams coming off a humbling loss.
Let’s face it, NFL teams don’t often run streaks of longer than five games ATS. That’s where Seattle is right now. This spot is particularly tough since there is little motivation versus Tennessee, and since the Titans are wrapping up a 3-game home stand here and have been very competitive in both earlier games, going 2-0 ATS.
There are so very few positive angles on the Titans lately, but this trend came into play last week and got us a winner, and it’s up again here: Tennessee is 21-16 SU and 22-14 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015. In addition, underdogs are 2-7 SU but 7-1-1 ATS in the SEA-TEN non-conference series since 1994. Need I even share the DK betting splits numbers either, 86% handle, 75% bets on Seattle? Eeek…
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: I’ll go with Tennessee here as the huge +13.5-point home dog
Minnesota at Green Bay (-6.5)
I was frankly quite surprised to see the Packers’ home numbers this week when I did my annual home/road field performance study for VSiN, especially the totals, as just 40.1 PPG have been scored in Lambeau Field games over the last 3-1/2 seasons. It seems as if Green Bay has played down to its competition recently, especially offensively, when they are playing as big favorites. It takes some sort of motivation to get them to play better offensively.
Well, insert the Minnesota Vikings, perhaps the team’s chief rival nowadays. Of note here, in home divisional games in the head coach Matt Lafleur era, since 2019, the Packers have scored 26.8 PPG. They rarely face totals this low in that time span. The other big thing to consider is that this series has been a higher-scoring one lately, with Over the total 8-2 in the MIN-GB divisional set in the last five seasons.
The injury to Packers’ RB Josh Jacobs should play a big role, as even if he goes, I don’t figure he’ll see his usual workload. When he is not on the field, the Packers tend to play faster and more reliant on the arm of QB Jordan Love. As it is, Love is on 15-8 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win. The Vikings have been streaky in games offensively, sometimes looking inept, sometimes looking deft with JJ McCarthy. That said, Minnesota’s head coach Kevin O’Connell is 18-8 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022. I expect a little more offensive-minded game from Green Bay this week.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 41.5 in Minnesota-Green Bay
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
If you read my article last week on the results of my strength ratings for NFL games so far this season, the best results have come in intra-conference non-divisional games. For whatever reason, the numbers have pegged those games accurately, including 3-1 last week. For this week’s big showdown in Kansas City, my power ratings call for a -4.8-point line here in favor of the Chiefs.
You may be feeling I have been slow to downgrade the defending AFC champs, but something seems curious about this line sitting at -3.5. Bettors seem to be finding the value in Indy, too, as 59% of them are willing to take the points. The old saying indicates that you can’t defeat the heart of a champion. Well, that will really be tested this week with the Chiefs.
You should know that Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 31-13 SU and 26-16 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019. And that Indy is coming out of its bye week facing this trend: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 25-18 SU and 28-15 ATS since ’19, 65.1%). When we last saw the Colts, they were losing back-to-back games ATS, perhaps showing some cracks. This game will be a very tough environment, and in the two toughest road games the Colts have faced this season, they have lost both, exactly 27-20. This feels very similar.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3-1/2 points with the Chiefs on Sunday
Cleveland at Las Vegas (-3.5)
The Browns and Raiders sport identical 2-8 records heading into their Sunday clash in Las Vegas. Oddsmakers seem to be hinting that the Raiders are the better team, as they are laying 3-1/2 points. Either that, or there is some serious anti-Shadeur Sanders sentiment for the contest, as the Browns have named him as the starter in what will be his debut.
Handle for this game at DraftKings has been one-sided, with 83% of it on the hosts. Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). In my opinion, they aren’t giving anywhere near the credit to the defensive disparity between these two teams, with the Browns still ranking in the top five in the league in Effective Yards Per Play allowed.
The Raiders typically don’t fare well against the league’s lesser teams either: Las Vegas is 11-18 SU and 8-21 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018. They are also 38-52 ATS (42.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015. Having teams favored when on losing streaks is also usually a red flag for NFL bettors: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 64-39 SU but 42-57-4 ATS (42.4%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013. Let’s face it, nothing has been easy for the Raiders this season. Why would this game be?
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: I’ll go with Shadeur & Cleveland +3.5 to be very competitive in Las Vegas
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
As opposed to coming back after losing a huge divisional clash, which I referenced in the Seattle-Tennessee write-up, the boost a team can get from such a win can be immense. The momentum is even greater when you have a high-profile game the next week as well. The Rams, off the Seattle, win, host a Tampa Bay team that may be falling victim to what has been a daunting schedule lately. They have lost three of four games to Buffalo, New England, and Detroit. This week, they square off with the #1-ranked team in my power ratings, and on Sunday night to boot.
The spread shows Rams -6.5, and my Power Ratings and Bettors’ Strength Ratings show that it should be at least 7. Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-40-2 ATS (60.4%) in their last 103. I mentioned the overall momentum from winning a huge game like the Rams did last week.
When you add the SNF aspect, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 30-10 SU & 24-16 ATS (60%) surge. When you throw in the fact that Tampa Bay is 11-21 SU & 9-23 ATS in last 32 primetime games, and the Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups with NFC foe Tampa Bay, this spot might just be too much for the still injury-riddled Bucs.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Give me Rams -6.5 on SNF
Monday, November 25, 2025
Carolina at San Francisco (-7)
I’m wondering how I’ll be snake-bit by taking both bigger favorites in the Sunday and Monday night games, but to me, they just both seem underpriced. No matter what Carolina’s record is, my strength indicators still show the Panthers to be a below-average team. Let’s put it this way: my average NFL Power Rating is 24. Carolina is currently a 20.5, with an equivalent Effective Strength Rating of 19.8 and an Effective Yards Per Play Rating of 19.0. Despite being just one game better in the standings, San Francisco shows the same ratings of 27, 27.2, and 25.4.
When adding what amounts to a +3.3-point HFA after this week’s study, essentially all my ratings say this line should be at or close to double-digits, not 7. It sure looks like the 49ers might be ready to take off now, coming off a huge 41-22 road win at Arizona and seemingly getting healthier every week. They typically take care of business against lesser foes under head coach Kyle Shanahan, who is 14-3 SU and ATS in his last 17 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG.
The 49ers are usually a good MNF team too, boasting a 12-7 SU and ATS record since 2012. Plus, in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 23-23 SU and 27-19 ATS (58.7%) surge since 2019. I’ll wrap it up by noting that favorites have won all five games between CAR and SF since 2014, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two games, won by the 49ers 88-28.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Give me the 49ers (-7) to win handily on MNF
For more NFL Week 12 best bets, visit the NFL Week 12 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
