NFL Week 14 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
A 0-3 start on Thanksgiving and Black Friday sort of set the tone for the ending of my five-week NFL winning streak, but I was able to recover enough on Sunday with a 5-2 record to the point where I had a chance Monday to keep the streak alive. I was thrilled to find out I was on the same side as Circa contest leader Jason Jarvis for that game, as he put his own Best Bet streak on the line, but in the end, we both lost with the Giants.
In any case, to make a long story short, I was 5-6 ATS last week, leaving me at 60-59-1 ATS (50.4%) for the season, well below standards, but much better than I was at Week 7 when my record stood at just over 42%. I always feel like the latter part of the regular season is where the systems and trends I use tend to fare best as well, as the data points for all of the teams are more clearly established. With that in mind, after poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 14.
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Dallas at Detroit (-3)
At the risk of plagiarism, I’m going to just copy Bill Adee’s work from this morning’s VSiN email newsletter as justification for why all my info seems to be pointing to Detroit in this game. He wrote: When Steve Makinen’s NFL Analytics Report arrived, I pumped all the trends, betting systems and power ratings into ChatGPT to see what Best Bets would be generated. And it just so happens that tonight’s game is at the top of the list. According to Steve’s data and ChatGPT analysis, this is why: This game has massive system alignment — it’s rare when almost everything points the same way.
✓ Strong Team Trends: 1) Lions 26-13-1 ATS at home since 2021, 2) Lions 22-10-1 ATS vs winning teams, 3) Lions 14-0 SU / 13-1 ATS off a loss. Also, Dallas trends against winning teams are poor (Dak 19-36 ATS vs winning teams).
✓ Major PTD System Alignments: System #15: Better-record fav of ≥3 pts — PLAY DETROIT, System #16: Home team w/ +4 win edge, favored <7 — 77.8% ATS! → PLAY DETROIT. And then there’s the TNF late-season home advantage: PLAY DETROIT.
✓ Power Ratings Consensus: Makinen Power Ratings: DET -3 should be -6.2, Effective Strength Ratings: DET -3 should be -6.5, Bettors Ratings: DET -3 should be -8.7 (!!).
I think much of this line dropping since a few weeks ago stems from Dallas’ improbable wins, Detroit’s improbable losses, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown’s injury. That’s why only 57% of the handle at DraftKings is on Detroit. I like that. How do I go against all of this solid info? I can’t, so yes, Bill, I will be backing Detroit -3 on TNF.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Give me the Lions -3 in what won’t be easy but will be a cover
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Washington at Minnesota (-2.5)
I love getting behind teams where it seems like the “sky is falling.” Minnesota is clearly one of those teams right now, as after rookie QB Max Brosmer’s brutal start last week at Seattle, it appears that head coach Kevin O’Connell is giving the ball back to JJ McCarthy, who, to be frank, has been deservedly criticized lately for his poor play. Well, to me, this is a good spot for redemption, as Washington hasn’t exactly been playing well either, and its defense has allowed 31.7 PPG in its last seven, very reminiscent of the 2023 team.
Coming off the SNF loss to Denver, the Commanders will be up against a couple of tough franchise angles too: 1) Washington is 22-39 ATS (36.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019. 2) Head coach Dan Quinn is 1-11 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016.
Meanwhile, the Vikings fit into a nice late-season line range system: There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-39 SU and 52-40 ATS (56.5%) since 2015.
And, their shutout loss last week serves to benefit on two angles: 1) Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in late-season games have bounced back with a 31-26 SU and 37-18 ATS (67.3%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015. 2) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounceback teams in the next outing, going 29-37 SU but 40-24-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2012. The Vikings have also played Washington well of late, going 5-1 SU & 3-2-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. Back at home for the first time since 11/16, I’ll go with Minnesota to get a win here.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Minnesota -2.5 to take down Washington
Miami (-2.5) at New York Jets
There are some pretty strong trends on Miami this week, based upon their success against bad teams, divisional foes, and coming off home wins. However, the naked eye test from last week’s near-crumble against New Orleans, combined with a streak angle based on their lower scoring average for the season, has me shying away from laying points on the road with them. That said, I do believe we could be looking at a higher scoring game against the Jets than the oddsmakers are showing.
The game has a pretty low total of 41.5, and to me, it’s based more on body or work numbers than on how these teams have changed in recent weeks. Let me explain. First, I believe the Jets are a better and more reliable offense with QB Tyrod Taylor under center. The talented running backs and the receivers are all making plays now. In their two most recent home games, they scored 27 points each time.
The defense has also yielded 20 or more in five straight games. Miami, meanwhile, hasn’t played a true road game since putting 34 on Atlanta back on October 26th. The Dolphins have also been showing a far better balance on offense lately. My effective strength ratings call for a 43.4 total, I think that’s more in line with where it should be. Plus, these teams have played Overs in four of their last five head–to-head matchups, games averaging 47 PPG. Finally, I love that the betting public at DK is all loaded up on the Under, with 88% of the handle on that side of the ledger. I’ll go against that grain anytime.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Miami-New York Jets over 41.5 on Sunday
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-6)
I mentioned that I felt like all the sentiment was going against the Vikings, and it made this week an ideal time to back them. Well, it seems the same could be said for Pittsburgh here at Baltimore. Like Minnesota, the Steelers’ opponent isn’t dazzling anyone lately either. Despite winning five of its last six games, it’s impossible to utter the words “Baltimore is on a roll.” The Ravens have lost three straight ATS, and haven’t hit the 30-point mark since QB Lamar Jackson returned five games ago.
Something is just amiss right now, and it makes it tough to lay 6 points in a critical divisional battle. Even with its 2-5 slide in the last seven games, do you really think Pittsburgh is going to roll over in this one with the division lead on the line? That doesn’t even touch on the fierce rivalry aspect of the contest.
Take a look at a couple of the screaming team tendencies in place for this game: 1) Pittsburgh’s head coach Mike Tomlin is on a 32-28 SU and 38-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. 2) Baltimore is 28-14 SU but 15-26 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010. This just feels like a game that could come down to a last-second field goal, making the point spread a great equalizer.
After the ugly, turnover-laden loss to the Bills last week at home, the Steelers qualify for a pair of great systems: First, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-40 SU but 39-23 ATS (62.9%) over the last decade-plus. Second, NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 20-15 SU but 11-23-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll back the Steelers +6 at Baltimore
Seattle (-7) at Atlanta
Despite the 26-0 win over Minnesota last week, some obvious concerns are showing with the Seahawks. Much of the reason for that shutout win was the ineptitude of the Vikings and their backup rookie QB. It masked what was a horrific performance from QB Sam Darnold, and now he and the Seahawks go on the road laying a dangerous -7 points against another famous former Vikings QB, Kirk Cousins.
We know the recent history of Darnold versus bad teams, as he is 13-11 SU but 9-14-1 ATS in his last 24 starts vs. teams with losing records. At the same time, with the Falcons off a heartbreaking FG loss at the Jets, QB Kirk Cousins is 19-14 SU and 20-11 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015. Also, because of that result, NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 52-34 SU and 50-35 ATS (58.8%) in the follow-up game.
Getting back to the Seattle shutout win last week, teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 17-21 SU and 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) in their last 38 games following up that extremely good defensive performance. Add to all this the fact that underdogs are 12-4-1 ATS in the SEA-ATL series since 1997, and we have the makings for a big live home dog play.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Atlanta +7 to keep things competitive with Seattle
Indianapolis (-1.5) at Jacksonville
Last week was the first time all season that Indianapolis did not hit the 20-point mark, albeit it came against a very focused Houston defense, and in truth, a couple of failed fourth-down conversions were all that stood between another 20+ point effort. For the season, Indy is scoring 29.8 PPG, including 28.3 PPG away from home. At the same time, Jacksonville and offensive guru head coach Liam Coen are also heating up offensively, having hit the 25+ point mark in five straight games.
What does this all mean to me? Well, without any weather concerns to be feared, this game feels like it could be a shootout for the AFC South lead. It wouldn’t be without precedent either, as Over the total has converted in five straight meetings between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Again, I usually like to see some DK betting splits info backing my feelings, and sure enough, this is a huge public Under play, with 89% of the handle on that side of the wagering options.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: It adds up to an Over 47.5 play for me in the Indianapolis-Jacksonville contest
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-8.5)
There is nothing going on with Tampa Bay lately that makes me think they are worthy of laying 8.5 points to anyone right now, particularly a divisional opponent that is usually pretty good on the road, and still playing with fight for their first-year head coach. As it is, New Orleans is 39-26 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2018.
The Bucs have lost their last four games against the spread and haven’t really demonstrated the offensive prowess they did early in the season, other than a decent outing in a massive come-from-behind attempt at Buffalo. We know that TB is just 39-55 ATS (41.5%) at home since 2014, but we also need to consider that QB Baker Mayfield is 16-10 SU but 7-19 ATS as a home favorite since 2020. This team is usually better sparked by the underdog role.
If, like me, you are a believer in the same season rematch/revenge type of data that is published in the VSiN NFL Analytics Report each late-season week, you would also see that New Orleans has been the best team in the league in recent years in such games. Does it change in this first year with head coach Kellen Moore, or is it ingrained in the franchise mettle? We’ll see, but the Saints being 17-2 ATS in their last 19 road rematches, and 15-1 ATS stretch in revenge games lately, has to be given some consideration. Plus, road teams are 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the NO-TB divisional rivalry.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll grab New Orleans +8.5 at Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Arizona
The turn of the calendar to December has long been a favorite time for the Rams and head coach Sean McVay, as they are on a 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS December run since 2018. This particular first December game for one of the top NFC teams has a few other great data points that should have you considering backing them as road chalk in Arizona.
First, coming off the hard-fought loss at Carolina this past Sunday, the Rams are 27-15 ATS (64.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019. The Cardinals, of course, are just 28-35 ATS (44.4%) at home since 2018, and are 13-22 ATS (37.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020.
The NFC West rival they have been the absolute worst against has been this Rams team: The Rams are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 trips to Arizona, but did lose the last time. The loss last week to the Panthers should pay other dividends as well, since NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 26-10 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
In addition, NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 52-34 SU and 50-35 ATS (58.8%) in the follow-up game. From a need standpoint, it makes sense for the Rams; from a near throwing in the towel on 2025 Arizona standpoint, it does as well.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go with the Rams -8.5 at Arizona on Sunday
Houston at Kansas City (-3.5)
For as much as Houston has gotten back into the thick of the playoff races in the AFC, I have to question how much they have left in the tank for a desperate Kansas City team in a very tough and potentially weather-impacted environment on Sunday night. This system says it will be tough: Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 34-42 SU and 28-47 ATS (37.3%) dating back to 2016.
Sans Tennessee, the Texans’ list of 2025 opponents reads like a list of who’s who in the NFL nowadays. Do yourself a favor and look at the schedule they have played. While it lightens up some down the stretch, this is yet another extremely difficult ask of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team. After all, Houston is on a 19-58 SU and 28-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010. It’s hard to think of KC as still being that elite team, but they are.
On the opposite side, Kansas City’s QB Patrick Mahomes boasts a 32-13 SU and 26-17 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019. It’s polar opposites essentially. With the Chiefs playing as 3.5-point favorites, they will also fit into this great line range late-season angle:
There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 140-79 SU and 108-70 ATS (60.7%), since New Year’s 2017.
The loss at Dallas last week was costly, but this system says KC can bounce back: NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 52-34 SU & 50-35 ATS (58.8%) in the follow-up game. If you want just one more great angle, consider that NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored (KC), are on a 48-18 SU and 38-26-2 ATS (59.4%) run when favored in the next game as well.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s lay the -3.5 point with Kansas City in a must-win scenario
Monday, December 8, 2025
Philadelphia (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Minus Maxx Crosby’s idiotic takedown personal foul on the final Chargers time-consuming drive last week, I would have had an Under win in that Raiders-Chargers game. As it is though, it might have us in a better position to capitalize on that same wager this week versus Philly, since the LA Chargers are 67-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013.
The Eagles looked rough offensively in a Black Friday loss to the Bears, and Philadelphia’s head coach Nick Sirianni is 12-4 Under the total in his 16 games when coming off an outright loss. In addition, QB Jalen Hurts is 22-12 Under the total in his last 34 road games. So, we have two teams that definitely trend under in this spot, and adding to that, historically, MNF home dogs have been big Under plays as well: The last 34 NFL MNF home dogs have seen Under the total go 23-9-2 (71.9%), games producing just 40 PPG.
If all that weren’t enough, in recent MNF action, LA Chargers are 12-3 Under in their last 15, and Philadelphia is 13-3-1 Under in their last 17. Not to mention, the game is priced at a point where bettors are flocking to the Over at a 78% number of bets rate. Not good. I expect this game to be a grinder, not quite the 10-7 Packers-Eagles MNF game last month, but not terribly more.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Under 40.5 in Philly-LA Chargers MNF tilt
For more NFL Week 14 best bets, visit the NFL Week 14 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
