NFL Week 15 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I feel much better about my NFL handicapping lately, especially since I added the post-Thanksgiving systems to the Analytics Report. Admittedly, the first month and a half of the 2025 season was rough, well below standards, but coming off my best week of the season and now sporting a 68-61-1 ATS (52.7%) record, I feel like it’s come around again. It leaves me thinking about how I can improve on the early part of the season next year, and perhaps it comes down to adding a section of strictly early-season systems to the mix.
In any case, for Week 15, the byes have concluded for all 32 teams and the last four weeks of the season will see full 16-game schedules. Seems like a lot of opportunity to me! With that in mind, after poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 15, a little bigger list than usual since I’m feeling good about myself…
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-5.5)
There are different degrees of winning in NFL games. There are teams that should win, need to win, are desperate for a win, and others that are due for a win. I believe Tampa Bay falls into that latter category, and I expect a much better performance from them on Thursday night, with the short rest breaking up the recent routine that has seen the Bucs lose five straight ATS.
There are several systems that I find as reason to get behind TB here: First, NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team that they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 23-16 SU and ATS (59%) in their last 39 tries. Second, there have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 143-82 SU and 110-74 ATS (59.8%), since New Year’s 2017. Third, having just lost to New Orleans on Sunday, NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 27-10 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2015. And finally, we know playing at home on TNF in late-season games has had its advantages, as since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 48-29 SU and 45-29-3 ATS (60.8%).
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Let’s go with Tampa Bay -5.5 to get a convincing home win vs. Atlanta
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Arizona at Houston (-9.5)
I’m not sure I’ve seen an NFL team endure as rough a schedule as the Texans have the last two months, and to be quite honest, endured might be the wrong word. Thrived through might be the more appropriate expression. Naturally, with struggling Arizona on deck, Houston should continue to roll, right? Well, for as tough of a recent slate as it has been, to me, this opponent and line spot smells of a potential letdown scenario where the Texans win, the sportsbooks win, but 71% of the DraftKings betting public getting behind Head Coach DeMeco Ryans’ team against the spread loses.
During the run dating back to 10/5, Houston hasn’t been in a game with a spread bigger than 5.5, and in that one, they were favored at Tennessee and won by a field goal. Let’s not forget some of the obvious things: Arizona is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019. The Cardinals have actually looked pretty good offensively with QB Jacoby Brissett running the show, and have scored 17 points or more in their last 10. That would probably be enough to get it done here, especially since in NFL PTD games since 2010, teams like the Texans on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 24-33 SU and 19-38 ATS (33.3%).
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I’ll back the Cardinals +9.5 to be competitive in Houston
Cleveland at Chicago (-7.5)
Admittedly, I was impressed with Chicago’s resolve last week in Green Bay, as it looked a couple of times as if the Packers were ready to knock the Bears out. QB Caleb Williams and the offense looked good in the second half, though, and nearly pushed in a last-minute tying or game-winning drive. Now, the Bears play at home in a game with a favorite line of -7.5, the highest they have faced since 2018! Are they ready? I think so, and I believe the treacherous weather that awaits should only help them, especially with how they’ve run the football recently.
Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 18-58 SU and 28-48 ATS (36.8%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
While Cleveland has had some spunk with QB Shadeur Sanders taking over, there are some reasons for concern here. First, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 145-134 ATS (52%) in home games but just 130-154 ATS (45.8%) in road/neutral games. In later-season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 43-112 SU and 66-87-2 ATS (43.1%).
Second, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 25 games, going 25-135 SU and 65-91-4 ATS (41.7%). Also, with the Browns scoring just 16.2 PPG, not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 52-146 SU and 78-117 ATS (40%) record since 2015. The head-to-head history between these teams also favors the Bears: Favorites/home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the CLE-CHI non-conference series since 1992. My power ratings say this line should be -10.7. I agree.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Give me Chicago laying the -7.5
Buffalo at New England (-1.5)
I’m often a little hesitant about backing the Bills on the road, as their play is inconsistent and they tend not to be as explosive offensively. That said, the trend indicates that Buffalo is 33-27 ATS (55%) in road/neutral games since 2019, as well as 22-8 SU and 23-7 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018. So this could be a good spot for them.
I also need to share that QB Josh Allen is 39-22 Under the total on the road since 2018. New England is, of course, red-hot; however, there is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 22-21 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) dating back to 2015. Plus, the truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 63-42 SU but 40-63 ATS (38.8%) in PTD games since 2015, including 13-33 ATS (28.3%) in divisional contests.
Besides being a crucial game, this is also a rematch from the Patriots’ stunning 23-20 win in October. Well, recognize that retread coaches like Mike Vrabel, having won the earlier game versus an opponent, have gone just 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in the rematch games since 2014. Buffalo boasts a 12-6 ATS record vs. Miami/New England in rematch games since 12/31/17. On top of that, there is a system I like that indicates that teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 20-8 SU and 20-9 ATS (69%) in their last 29 revenge tries. Add to all of this that New England is on a 17-9 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 16.4 PPG, and I think two plays make sense to me.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Give me Buffalo +1.5 and/or Under 50.5 in the big AFC East clash
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati
I really feel like another team due for a better performance this week is the Ravens, who have lost back-to-back games outright and four straight ATS. Why do I feel a bounce back is coming? Well, this system from the Analytics Report for one: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-20 SU and 38-28-2 ATS (57.6%) run when favored in the next game as well.
Of course, the game that started the two-game key divisional losing skid was on Thanksgiving night against this same Bengals team. Cincinnati was getting QB Joe Burrow back that night, and it was an emotionally uplifting situation. After last week’s crucial loss at Buffalo, which essentially ended the Bengals’ playoff hopes, I expect a flatter effort from them.
They qualify for this angle: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-49 SU and 18-44-4 ATS (29%) in game #4 since 2003. Speaking of rematches, Baltimore has been one of the league’s best in this spot, going 15-5 ATS in the last 20 rematch road games. This rivalry has also seen road teams go 12-3 ATS in the last 15.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I’ll get behind the Ravens -2.5 at Cincy
Washington at New York Giants (-2.5)
For as much as I believe the Giants are still playing with some spunk, and Washington sports trends of 22-40 ATS (35.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019 and 17-33 ATS (34%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017, I still can’t get myself to lay points with New York. After all, the Giants haven’t been a home favorite since January 1, 2023. Instead, I am going to look at the total for this game, as it is a rather lofty 46.5, and both teams score fewer than 22 PPG.
The Commanders also fit into a nice Under angle because of the ugly nature with how they lost last week in Minnesota: NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 132-93 Under the total (58.7%) in the next contest since 2016. The Giants, who were off last week, also have a pair of nice Under trends to consider, having gone 5-1 Under in their last six post-bye games overall and 9-2 Under the total record in their last 11 post-bye week divisional games.
It also doesn’t hurt that nearly 2/3 of the money and bets at DK are leaning Under as in games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! On top of all that, Under the total is 11-5-1 in the last 17 matchups between WAS and NYG.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Under 46.5 is the play for me in Giants-Commanders
Indianapolis at Seattle (-14)
Recognizing the difficulties that Indianapolis is now facing at the QB position with Daniel Jones on the IR with a torn Achilles heel, are oddsmakers taking it a little too far by installing the Seahawks as 14-point favorites? Furthermore, are 66% of bettors (82% handle) falling into a classic NFL line trap here?
We know that over the past 2+ seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). We also know that just a couple of weeks ago, people were talking about the Colts as one of the best teams in the NFL. Are the 53 other plays for Indy going to just roll over here? Or might they take offense to this point spread? Indy has some crazy good trends in play, going 17-20 SU but 25-12 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015, and 25-24 SU and 34-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010.
Oh, by the way, the Colts are also 31-15 SU and 32-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011. We all know that the Colts signed retired veteran QB Philip Rivers this week. What we don’t know is if he will be the starter or not. Personally, I don’t care if it’s him, Riley Leonard, or Brett Rypien. My backing is about the rest of the team, which has been very good this year. Plus, I don’t have any good systems saying Seattle is a value play.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I’ll go with Indianapolis getting +14 in Seattle
Carolina (-2.5) at New Orleans
Carolina is, in fact, in the playoff hunt in the NFC. If the Panthers are to be taken seriously, they have to win this game in New Orleans against their division rivals. When we last left off with Dave Canales’ club, we were backing them in a Week 13 contest in which they upset the Rams, perhaps the NFL’s top team. That win more than anything has them in a position of road chalk heading out of their bye week.
If you follow the post-bye week systems as I do, you know that we are supposed to play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 119-49 SU and 97-67-4 ATS since 1999). The record vs. divisional opponents ups to 32-19 ATS since 2002.
As an organization, Carolina has won its last three post-bye week games ATS. This, of course, is a rematch of an early November contest won 17-7 by the Saints. Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 48-16 SU and 41-23 ATS (64.1%) in the rematch contest. Then there is the fact that 81% of bets at DK are on the Panthers. Does that scare me away? No, since the start of the ’23 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%).
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I’ll back Carolina -2.5 to get some revenge on the Saints this week
Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
While the Lions are just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games, I don’t think they, nor head coach Dan Campbell, feel they are any less elite than they were back in September, and I believe big underdog lines like the one they face this week in LA tend to motivate them. We know it does QB Jared Goff, who is 11-13 SU but 18-6 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021. Detroit put up 44 points in its last win, a TNF contest vs Dallas, making them a worthy underdog in any line scenario.
Detroit is 19-8 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018, and 16-9 SU and 20-6 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019. Are they scared of the dominant Rams? With a record of 21-13 SU and 23-10-1 ATS in the last 34 vs. teams with a winning record, they shouldn’t be.
On the other hand, the Rams’’ QB Matthew Stafford is 38-65 SU and 39-62 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011. After the Lions put up those 44 points, the Rams did one better in Arizona, leading to them qualifying on this system: Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 23-15 SU but 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
It’s curious that 60% of bets (only 29% handle) are in on Detroit. In a rare winning record, when the majority number of bets have backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I will go against the grain and back Detroit as the +6 road dog
Tennessee at San Francisco (-12.5)
The 49ers were one of the four teams blessed with late byes this past week, getting the first week of December off. According to those making the lines, it would seem that they have this week off too, as they host the 2-11 Titans and are installed as +12.5-point dogs. Does Tennessee have any chance here, or is San Francisco going to roll? I say the former, and there are plenty of reasons to believe head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team could underperform here.
First of all, they haven’t been favored by more than 7.5 points in any game this season, and when they were that big of chalk versus Carolina, they certainly didn’t dominate in a 20-9 win marred by turnovers. It stands to reason since QB Brock Purdy is just 11-8 SU and 7-12 ATS in his last 19 vs. teams with lesser records.
As a franchise, San Francisco is also just 20-30 ATS (40%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014. The off week could actually go against SF here, too, since this system says to play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-25 SU and 32-18-2 ATS since 2015, 64%).
Even worse are double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 9-19-1 ATS since ’14, 32.1%). On top of that, the 49ers are 5-15-1 ATS in post-bye week games dating back to 2004, including 1-3 ATS in the last four, and Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in the last five games with San Francisco. With the Titans’ offense emerging, I like their chances to be sneaky competitive here.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Give me the Titans +12.5 in San Francisco
Minnesota at Dallas (-5.5)
The Cowboys are another team that has had a rough go of it lately, schedule-wise, facing some very competitive teams and playing their last two games on Thursdays. It lightens up a bit this week with Minnesota coming to town for a SNF game, although the Vikings do come off their best effort of the season, a 31-0 win over Washington. All of this leads me to believe the Cowboys could be in a good spot here since Dallas is 28-11 SU and 25-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, and QB Dak Prescott is 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016.
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s team also fits into a nice line range angle: There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 143-82 SU and 110-74 ATS (59.8%), since New Year’s ‘17. Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, the favored team is 73-17 SU and 58-30 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
The shutout came at an ideal time for Minnesota, and especially JJ McCarthy, who the critics seemed to back off of this week. Of course, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 43-112 SU and 66-87-2 ATS (43.1%). Plus, teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 18-21 SU and 15-23-1 ATS (39.5%) in their last 39 games following up that extremely good defensive performance. We also know that home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-41-2 ATS (59.8%) in their last 104.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I look for Dallas (-5.5) to take care of business Sunday night
Monday, December 15, 2025
Miami at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
This week’s Monday night tilt looks a lot better now that it would have if both teams had lost big games last week. Now, both Miami and Pittsburgh are in the playoff hunt, and in fact, the Dolphins have won four straight games. Of course, the last three were against teams that are 3-10 right now, and two of them were by a field goal margin, so it hasn’t exactly been a dominant surge.
This actually becomes a pretty tough spot for the Dolphins, since Miami’s Mike McDaniel is on a 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog, and QB Tua Tagovailoa is 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in his last 14 starts versus teams with winning records.
Systematically, a big winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 35-43 SU and 29-48 ATS (37.7%) dating back to 2016. Similarly, in NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 24-33 SU and 19-38 ATS (33.3%).
Of course, I usually like to have reasons on both sides to play a game, and for the Steelers, concerning late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored teams is 73-17 SU and 58-30 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. Recent MNF history shows that in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 28-19 ATS (59.6%) surge since 2019. Tough environment against a rejuvenated Pittsburgh team.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Steelers -3.5 on MNF
For more NFL Week 15 best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
