NFL Week 16 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Forgive me for feeling robbed, but there was a point in the late Sunday afternoon game where I honestly felt like I was going to sweep the four-game board I had going. The Lions led the Rams comfortably, the Panthers had a 10-point lead on the road at New Orleans, and Tennessee was being its usual pesky self at San Francisco. Instead, both the Lions and Panthers blew their games late outright and ATS, and the 49ers kicked a meaningless field goal up 10 with a minute left on a 4th & 1. That three-game swing put me at 5-7 last week instead of 8-4.
If I had to go back, I’d take the same wagers, so it doesn’t leave me feeling any less than I did prior. That said, we are about pushing for profit, so it’s back to the drawing board for Week 16, looking to improve on my 73-68-1 ATS mark. With that in mind, after poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for this week.
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-1.5)
It’s believed that, in most cases, the home team has a better chance of setting the tempo in any given NFL game, particularly late in the season, since they understand the weather conditions better. Seattle is the home team in the huge TNF game against the Rams, and with the way QB Sam Darnold has fallen off lately, you have to believe that the Seahawks do not want to get into a shootout with QB Matt Stafford and the Rams.
As Bill Adee shared in the morning VSiN Newsletter, there are plenty of reasons to think the Rams could be worth backing tonight, especially since their December record has been exemplary under head coach Sean McVay, and since they are my #1 power-rated team at this point in the season. However, the weather conditions tonight could be wet and windy, and I think it could have an impact on the way McVay treats this game.
In addition to Stafford slinging it around the yards this season, McVay has had a defense that has dominated on occasion. The games between these teams have not lived up to offensive billing lately, either, with Under the total going 10-3 in the last 13 of this rivalry. Not only that, but both of these teams have a recent trend of Unders in primetime games, with LA Rams 17-7 Under surge and Seattle 12-7 Under in the last 19.
Finally, let’s look at the betting splits from DraftKings on VSiN.com. The latest numbers show 68/69 majorities on Over for handle and bets, despite the weather dropping the total since opening. Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets. I think this is going to be a game played closer to the vest.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Give me Under 42.5 in Rams-Seahawks
Saturday, December 20, 2025
Green Bay at Chicago (-1.5)
The betting world and most football talking heads have now turned on the Packers after the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons. Obviously, the injury is huge and will change the Packers’ defense, but in truth, in the game two weeks ago against Chicago, QB Caleb Williams was escaping him often anyway. The reason the Bears stayed in that game and almost completed the comeback was their running game. I would expect the Packers to make big adjustments this time around on that and put the game more into Williams’ hands. To me, this game screams of the biggest issues that oddsmakers are having nowadays because of their unwillingness to put down a number of pick em’ or -1 in any game. They leave such a massive hole for savvy bettors to slip through.
Why do I say that? Well, Green Bay sat as a -1.5-point favorite at the outset of the week. Since then, 81% handle and 65% bets on Chicago have forced DraftKings to move the line. Not to GB -1, or even, or even GB +1, but all the way to +1.5. That’s a 3-point move that, in the days of better practices, would have never happened. I know this, as I used to consult on linemaking for perhaps the biggest book of them all in the “old days.” Not to mention that all that money sitting on a home favorite is never good.
We know the history of this series, with Green Bay 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 trips to Chicago. We also know that head coach Matt LaFleur’s team is 4-0 in divisional play this season. Chicago is 10-27 SU and 12-25 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019. The Bears have also been one of the league’s worst rematch/revenge teams of recent history, going 5-15 ATS in the last 20 rematch games, and 7-21 SU and 9-18-1 ATS in the last 28 revenge tries.
Adding to that, rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 31-45 SU and 34-42 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2015. With GB coming off the loss as Denver, we also need to consider that NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 54-36 SU and 52-37 ATS (58.4%) in the follow-up game.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Give me Green Bay as the +1.5 point dog to shake off the now naysayers
Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
Washington has been a home dog to Philadelphia each of the last five times it has hosted them. The Commanders’ record in those games is 3-1-1 ATS. In short, Washington has not been an easy place to win for the Eagles, despite the overall superiority during this era. That said, oddsmakers are giving every indication that things could be easy for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team on Saturday, as they are installed as 7-point road chalk.
Why shouldn’t they be? Everything is great again in Philly after they blasted the Raiders 31-0 at home last Sunday. Is that enough to have turned things around? Or should we still be concerned about the three straight prior losses? Or the five games prior to the Las Vegas game in which the offense scored 16.2 PPG. I personally still have concerns about this team being this big of a road favorite against a divisional foe when its offense hasn’t proven it is clicking again.
As it is, Philadelphia’s head coach Nick Sirianni is 14-4 SU but 5-12 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022. And teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 19-21 SU and 16-23-1 ATS (41%) in their last 40 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
Washington comes off a pretty good effort in winning at the Giants and didn’t seem the least bit intrigued by “tanking.” Washington is 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) when coming off a SU win since 2019 and 14-13 SU and 19-7 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018. I’m sure the rivalry aspect of this contest will spare any thought of not giving it here too.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: I’ll take Washington +7 to at least make things difficult for Philly
Sunday, December 21, 2025
Buffalo (-10.5) at Cleveland
Let’s see, a double-digit road favorite the public adores coming off a huge divisional upset to put itself back in the title race, and taking on a team that was just shut out on the road last week. What could go wrong? We know that Buffalo can run very hot or very cold on the road. Against a Cleveland team that is still playing with energy despite last week’s tough weather-impacted loss on the road, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills underperform.
How can you ignore this trend: Buffalo’s Sean McDermott is 11-1 SU but 2-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022. These types of games are usually prime letdown spots, and Cleveland has the defense/running game to keep itself competitive. Looking back at last week’s Browns’ loss in Chicago, brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in a late-season game have bounced back with a 34-26 SU and 40-18 ATS (69%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015.
In addition, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as Underdogs in the next contest, 23-40 SU but 40-23 ATS (63.5%) over the last decade-plus. Disproportionate betting action on the Bills (78% handle and bets) also has me concerned. I could easily see a 24-16 type of game.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: I’ll back Cleveland getting the +10.5 points at home
New York Jets at New Orleans (-4.5)
So much of what happens down the stretch of any NFL season centers on a team’s mindset. For those out of the playoff picture, the effort levels between teams tanking and those building momentum for next season can vary significantly. The Saints are a team that still seems to be bringing it week in and week out, and first-year head coach Kellen Moore is finally getting a full buy-in from the troops. How else can you explain that the Saints have won back-to-back games and three straight ATS for the first time all season? Well, what better opponent to bring in when looking to extend winning streaks than the lowly Jets, who are 14-32 ATS (30.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015, and own an ugly 12-51 SU and 21-40 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016. Back to the three-game ATS winning streak, did you know that New Orleans is 22-10 SU and 21-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more ATS winning streak since 2011.
For this particular spot, the Saints are backed by three different solid betting systems. 1) There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 144-85 SU and 111-77 ATS (59%), since New Year’s ‘17. 2) Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 74-18 SU and 59-31 ATS (65.6%) since 2017. And 3) Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks like QB Tyler Shough have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 43-16 SU and 40-18-1 ATS (69%).
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Let’s lay the -4.5 point with the Saints to continue their surge
New England at Baltimore (-3)
Last week was the first time in a while when it felt like Baltimore was getting back to its winning recipe of relying on RB Derrick Henry more than he has been lately. Let’s face it, QB Lamar Jackson has not been anywhere near as explosive since his return from injury some seven weeks ago, and the Ravens refused to acknowledge it. When they went back to the running game more last week, Jackson looked better. If not for a few key drops, one of which led to an interception, Baltimore probably would have a couple more times in last week’s 24-0 rout of Cincy.
Well, that win could prove big this week, since momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-27-1 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%) in their last 44, but those coming off a win are on a current 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge. Overall, we know that home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-42-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 105. The Patriots come off a brutal loss in which they were shut down in the second half by Buffalo. SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-32 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%) in their last 46 tries against teams off a win.
We know that Baltimore usually brings it for big games, boasting a 15-13 SU and 20-7 ATS record vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020. Head coach John Harbaugh is on an 8-4 SU and 9-2 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG. There is some peculiar betting action at DK on this game, too, since the line does look like a potential trap spot with the Ravens favored by 3 points. Well, we know that DK is a very public book, and 72% of bettors are on the Patriots, but 65% of the handle is on the favored Ravens. The latter is usually sharper in such occasions.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Give me Baltimore -3 as the Sunday night favorite
Pittsburgh at Detroit (-7)
I said it a couple of weeks ago, when everyone seemed to be turning on Pittsburgh and head coach Mike Tomlin. What did the Steelers do? Well, they responded with two of their best efforts of the season in beating Baltimore and Miami. By no means have they secured themselves in the playoff picture, but the wins have truly galvanized them.
For this Sunday’s matchup against the Lions, I think you really have to question the enormity of the line based upon the perceived current cohesiveness of the teams. Detroit has been off, undoubtedly, and comes off a crucial loss at LA, where it gave up a double-digit lead to perhaps the league’s best team. The Lions are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, their first such prolonged skid ever under head coach Dan Campbell.
We know the history of Tomlin in the underdog role, as he is on a 33-28 SU and 39-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. We also know that Pittsburgh is 19-14 SU and 20-12-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013. On top of that, in recent action between these two franchises, underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the PIT-DET series. I believe the Steelers found something in winning at Baltimore a couple of weeks ago and now have some swagger again. That seems to be missing for the Lions.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Steelers +7 in Detroit
Las Vegas at Houston (-14.5)
You’d have to be crazy to be thinking of backing the Raiders at this point, wouldn’t you? Well, call me crazy, but this feels like a typical late-season NFL spot where the point spread figures to be the great equalizer. The line, Houston -14.5, the second biggest home line the Texans have ever played to, looks like a difficult one for them to cover. By the way, in the only other game they were this big of a favorite, in 2012, they beat Jacksonville 43-37 as 15-point chalk. By no means am I saying this game will get to be that level, but the Texans’ defense did show some cracks last week against Arizona, and I believe this line has been inflated by the Raiders’ difficult weather game loss at Philly last week.
There are four particular betting systems that catch my eye for big underdogs here: First, brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in a late-season game have bounced back with a 34-26 SU and 40-18 ATS (69%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015. Second, teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 31-37 SU but 42-24-2 ATS (63.6%) since 2012. Third, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 23-40 SU but 40-23 ATS (63.5%) over the last decade-plus. And finally, NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-69 SU but 52-29-1 ATS (64.2%) as double-digit road Underdogs since 2006. Houston would be perfectly happy with a 27-13 or 28-17 type of win.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Raiders to cover the +14.5 points in Houston
Cincinnati (-4.5) at Miami
While Cincinnati didn’t look worthy of being a road favorite last week in getting shut out at home by Baltimore, I think the other choice in this particular matchup is the lesser option. With Miami electing to sit QB Tua Tagovailoa down after being eliminated from the postseason after the MNF loss at Pittsburgh, it certainly looks like the Dolphins are making a choice to throw the rest of this season to the wind. Now, that’s not to say that replacement rookie Quinn Ewers can’t or won’t be successful, it just doesn’t look like it’s going to be a good spot for him to be so. In fact, it seems more like Miami is making moves to ensure its draft spot is better.
In any case, it sets up an interesting matchup between a pair of QBs that had similar college careers, both starting at Ohio State, but both making names for themselves after transferring. The line of course is what we are betting against, and Cincinnati is on an incredible 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015. The Bengals are also 76-48 ATS on the road dating back to 2011, and Burrow is on a 20-11 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) run vs. non-divisional AFC foes.
Head coach Zac Taylor’s team seems due for a bounce back according to these two angles as well: 1) Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in a late-season games have bounced back with 34-26 SU and 40-18 ATS (69%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015. 2) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 42-24-2 ATS (63.6%) since 2012.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Look for Burrow and the Bengals (-4.5) to get it right this week in Miami
Monday, December 22, 2025
San Francisco (-6) at Indianapolis
Last week’s Indy-Seattle game played out almost to a tee like I thought it would. I never figured that a team that had been as good as the Colts were all season would simply throw in the towel just because their starting QB went down to injury. Now granted, they did play conservatively with QB Philip Rivers taking over, but that was expected, and I would think that each week he is in, the game plan will expand. The rest of the roster is solid and sure doesn’t seem to be giving up. Let’s not forget, they are still in the thick of the playoff race.
Which makes this week’s line against San Francisco again enticing, as San Francisco is 21-30 ATS (41.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014, and head coach Kyle Shanahan is on a 5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS skid when coming off a home win. Let’s not leave out QB Brock Purdy either, as he is 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in the last nine starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points, and 12-8 SU but 8-12 ATS in the last 20 vs. teams with lesser records. The 49ers are hot, of course, winners of four straight outright and ATS, but that could cause some issues here since a winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 35-45 SU and 29-50 ATS (36.7%) dating back to 2016.
We know that NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 17-20 SU but 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) dating back to September 2021 and that won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 50-42 SU but just 37-53-2 ATS (41.1%) in the last 92 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. With over 68% of the money and bets on the side of the road chalk 49ers, I could easily see a game decided by a late FG here.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Let’s back Indianapolis getting the +6 points at home
For more NFL Week 16 best bets, visit the NFL Week 16 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
