NFL Week 17 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I picked a frustratingly brand new way to go 5-5 ATS on the week 16 NFL board by going 0-5 ATS on the stand alone games over the weekend, and 5-0 ATS on the Sunday afternoon slate. It’s a tough way to go, because like most of you, I was able to watch most or all of those stand-alone losses and only saw some bits and pieces of the wins. That said, after a 0-3 start, I was happy to be .500 for the weekend. Thus, I push into the Week 17 slate with a 78-73-1 ATS season mark.
Unfortunately, this week’s NFL slate, to be blunt, is possibly the worst set of games I’ve ever encountered on a regular-season weekend, even worse than many season-finale slates where there are resting starters to contend with. Why do I say that? Well, the board is littered with mega point spreads, injured quarterbacks, and widely varying agendas for almost every one of the 32 teams. In fact, if you really break it down, there are only a handful of the 16 games with any real intrigue. I am limiting my best bets for the week, as I am struggling to find motivational or situational edges that equate to the lines.
With that in mind, after poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for this week…Have a Merry Christmas, and hopefully, next weekend’s games will be better.
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Detroit (-7.5) at Minnesota
Bettors could prove to be very fortunate with the scheduling of Detroit’s game at Minnesota on Thursday, since at that point the Lions will still have a chance of reaching the postseason. By the end of the weekend, they could be eliminated from contention, but as of Thursday afternoon, they will still be fighting for their playoff lives. Now, fighting is not something that head coach Dan Campbell’s team seems to be doing as much lately, as they seem to have lost some of the toughness and grit that defined them in recent years. That said, they are also very fortunate to be getting a suddenly hot Minnesota team with its QB injured.
This forces rookie Max Brosmer into the lineup, and if you missed his short stint earlier in the season, he was nothing short of awful. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team will be up against a tough system here…There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 23-22 SU and 16-27 ATS (37.2%) dating back to 2015.
There are also some great analytics to back Detroit here, too, since QB Jared Goff is 17-8 SU and 17-7-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021, and head coach Dan Campbell is on a 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS streak coming off an outright loss. From a simple standpoint, we have learned that there has been a sweet spot for betting late-season road favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 38-7 SU and 29-15 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
We also need to consider that this is a rematch of a game earlier this season won by the Vikings 27-24, since Detroit is 16-4-1 ATS run in rematches, while Minnesota is on a current 7-15 SU and 6-16 ATS slide in such games. Plus, teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 21-8 SU and 21-9 ATS (70%) in their last 30 revenge tries. On top of all that, Detroit is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Minnesota.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Detroit -7.5 is my Christmas Day choice at Minnesota
Denver (13.5) at Kansas City
I have been staring at this absurd line in the Denver-Kansas City game all week, trying to come up with reasons why the downtrodden Chiefs would muster up a fight against the division-leading Broncos. In the end, though, it feels just like the regular season ending game we saw last year between the teams when the Bronocs (-10.5) wasted the starter resting Chiefs 38-0. The only thing is, the Chiefs aren’t resting starters; they have given up. In many ways, you can’t blame them, as it was a challenging season even before they lost QB Patrick Mahomes. Now, they’ve also lost backup QB Gardner Minshew and will be down to 3rd and 4th quarterbacks against one of the best pass rushes in football.
As it is, games like this have been a struggle for head coach Andy Reid’s team, as they are 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020. They have had particular trouble with Denver, who is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games with Kansas City. There are also some interesting momentum angles for Thursday night football that are in play concerning Denver’s loss to Jacksonville and KC’s loss at Tennessee this past Sunday.
First, over the last 4+ seasons, TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday have rebounded incredibly with a 23-24 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) record. Second, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 31-35 SU and 27-38-1 ATS (41.5%). However, above all else, the following system gives me zero reason to trust Kansas City here: In rematch games where point spreads have changed 17 points or more from the prior contest, the team that the line moved favorably towards is on a 38-1 SU and 28-11 ATS (71.8%) run.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Give me Denver -13.5 to continue KC’s ugly skid
Saturday, December 27, 2025
Baltimore at Green Bay (-3)
Despite the brutal OT loss last week at Chicago, Green Bay is still in good position to reach its postseason goals. In fact, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot by beating the Ravens on Saturday night. From the looks of it, the Packers should have the services of both QBs Jordan Love and Malik Willis for the game. Baltimore on the other hand, has made things very difficult for itself after losing three of its last four games.
Let’s be honest here, though, after digging a deep early-season hole, the Ravens turned things around by winning five straight, but never quite looked their usual selves. What we are seeing now is probably closer to the new reality of this team. Can you really see them rallying to catch Pittsburgh? As such, why would they win in Green Bay in a late December contest with the Packers having a playoff berth on the line? As it is, the Packers are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS in the month of December at home under head coach Matt Lafleur. They are 38-22 ATS (63.3%) at home overall since 2019. Speaking of home edges, this series has seen home teams are 6-1 ATS in the BAL-GB set since 1998.
Getting back to head coach John Harbaugh’s team, coming off the self-destruct SNF loss to New England, losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 19-59 SU and 29-49 ATS (37.2%) in the follow-up game in 2015.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Green Bay (-3) rolls against Baltimore Saturday night
Houston at Los Angeles Chargers (1.5)
While the Texans’ winning streak has been well-documented and glorified, righteously, since there have been some pretty impressive runs in the seven-game run, what has been much further below the radar has been the solid stretch of play the Chargers have displayed. In fact, both teams boast 7-1 marks in their last eight and 8-2 in their last 10. Furthermore, the Chargers are the team with the one-game better record right now and are only laying 1-1/2 points at home. Ironically, that sets them up for a nice late-season situational spot for Sunday, since there have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 57-40 SU and 54-42 ATS (56.3%) since 2015.
The Texans’ winning streak also comes into focus here as the target of a separate system: Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 37-45 SU and 31-50 ATS (38.3%) dating back to 2016. Finally, one of the secrets to Houston’s winning streak has been its defense, which has allowed 18.3 PPG during the streak. Lesser known is that the Chargers’ defense has allowed 17.3 PPG in its last eight, 14.7 PPG in the seven wins. In my opinion, LA playing in the shadows recently gives them value here.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll back the Chargers -1.5 at home to Houston
Sunday, December 28, 2025
New Orleans (-2.5) at Tennessee
I’ve been confidently riding the red-hot Saints lately to some nice best bet wins, but those behind the counter might have gone too far this time around, installing them as -2.5 point favorites at Tennessee for Sunday. What’s more, 90% of the handle and 72% of the bets at DraftKings are on that side of the ledger. I can tell you, this scares the daylights out of me when public bettors come in droves to bet losing teams that are suddenly hot.
We also have to consider that the Titans have awoken, too, and are playing pretty good football themselves lately. In fact, I would say right now that these are two of the many “lesser” teams in the league that are still playing with some passion. In which case, why would one of the teams be a road favorite? New Orleans has won three straight games, but none of them came against teams with a power rating of more than 22 on my scale, well below the average figure of 24. Head coach Kellen Moore’s team has scored 73 points during the stretch, but is still just 17 PPG for the season.
As such, not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 52-150 SU and 79-120 ATS (39.7%) record since 2015. In addition, in NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 25-34 SU and 20-39 ATS (33.9%). The Titans are on a nice roll offensively too, scoring 27 PPG in their last three, and they are building nice momentum for 2026. I expect that to continue.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Give me the Titans +2.5 as home dogs to New Orleans
Tampa Bay (-5.5) at Miami
After losing at Carolina last Sunday, Tampa Bay has put itself in trouble in terms of defending its AFC South title, but all is not lost yet. In fact, considering the Bucs are facing a motivated-to-lose opponent here in Miami, and the Panthers are hosting a highly motivated Seattle team, things could be back to even after Sunday, thus forcing a winner-take-all head-to-head game next week. Can the Bucs turn it around quickly enough to get that accomplished? Can they turn it around quickly enough to cover a 5.5-point line at Miami? I believe so on both accounts, and sometimes feel a team having its back against the wall is what can finally get things changed.
Let’s face it, the Dolphins don’t figure to put up much fight here, just like they didn’t a week ago against Cincinnati. It can legitimately be argued that Miami’s move to bench Tua Tagovailoa could best be described as a draft position-bettering situation. As it is, Miami’s head coach Mike McDaniel is on a 4-18 SU and 6-16 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog.
The matchup is ideal from a head-to-head standpoint, too, since Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in the series with in-state foe Miami since 1997. From a situational standpoint, the Bucs figure to benefit from multiple great betting systems on this week’s VSiN Analytics Report. My favorite two of these are…1) Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only 1-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 75-18 SU and 60-31 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. 2) NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-28 SU but 33-19-2 ATS (63.5%) in their last 54 games versus non-conference foes.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Give me Tampa Bay -5.5 to ensure a chance vs. Carolina next week
Philadelphia at Buffalo (-1.5)
This is quite a curious line in the Philadelphia-Buffalo matchup for Sunday, as one of the league’s perennially best home teams is laying just 1.5 points to a team they have a better record than right now. What’s more, it’s still highly debatable as to whether or not this Eagles team is playing well enough to command respect. Before wins over pathetic Las Vegas and injury-riddled Washington, let’s not forget that the defending champs had lost three straight games. Furthermore, they had scored just 16.2 PPG in their five games before those back-to-back wins.
To say everything is right offensively with head coach Nick Sirianni’s team would be an error I believe. They are going to have to score points here, since Buffalo is typically explosive offensively at Orchard Park. In fact, in their last 22 home contests, the Bills have averaged 32.3 PPG! Philly has only reached that mark once in its last 12 outings. The line also sets Buffalo up in a couple of nice spots. First, head coach Sean McDermott boasts a 16-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3-points since 2017. Second, there have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 57-40 SU and 54-42 ATS (56.3%) since 2015.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll back the Bills as the short -1.5-point favorite
For more NFL Week 17 best bets, visit the NFL Week 17 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
