NFL Week 18 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Last week at this time, I introduced the NFL betting board by proclaiming it one of the worst I had seen in recent memory. Even still, against better judgment, I decided to release a set of picks for the Week 17 slate. Hopefully, you acknowledged my pessimism and either ignored the picks or, even better, faded them, as I failed to win any of them. Moving on now to Week 18, the season finales, with a season record of 78-80-1 ATS.
The Week 18 games are always interesting, as you have a lot of different agendas to consider, particularly with those games involving teams resting starters. Most people like to ignore those games or even bet against all the teams that are supposedly tanking the games, but if you saw the piece I released earlier this week on the subject, those strategies can prove to be very wrong. In fact, these types of games can offer a lot of value if you dig below the surface. I have a few of those games in my best bets for this week, as I combined that piece with our loaded VSiN NFL Analytics Report to come up with an interesting list for Week 18.
Saturday, January 3, 2026
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)
For as much as Tampa Bay has floundered of late, the Bucs still have a shot at defending their NFC South crown by winning Saturday against Carolina. You would think that common sense would indicate that backing the Bucs would be a dangerous situation here, as Carolina has the better record and seems to be playing with more passion. Most of the betting public at DraftKings seems to agree, with majorities on both handle and volume behind the Panthers. When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). Even still, the line has moved from -2.5 to -3 in favor of Tampa.
Now, that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense and has me thinking the Bucs are the play here. With them coming off the upset loss at Miami, we know that NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 55-39 SU and 54-39 ATS (58.1%) in the follow-up game. We also know that the Panthers home loss to Seattle hurts their chances, since losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 20-60 SU and 30-50 ATS (37.5%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
Of course, Carolina’s offensive woes could hurt too: Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 53-150 SU and 80-120 ATS (40%) record since 2015. This, of course, is a rematch from a game two weeks ago, won by the Panthers, 23-20. However, in rematch games, Carolina is 4-12 ATS in the last 16 after beating opponents in the initial outing.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’m going to back Tampa Bay -3 in this one
Seattle (-1.5) at San Francisco
After San Francisco survived Chicago’s upset attempt this past Sunday in a barn burner, most casual football fans probably felt the 49ers now had the upper hand in getting the top seed in the NFC playoffs, needing to win just a home game with Seattle this week to do so. It seems oddsmakers feel otherwise, as they have the Seahawks as road favorites, essentially telling us Seattle is the better team here.
There is a tremendous system that goes with Seattle because of the line: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 53-14 SU and 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents. Similarly, there is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 24-22 SU and 17-27 ATS (38.6%) dating back to 2015.
Looking back at the game earlier this season between these teams, in Week 1, mind you, the 49ers prevailed 17-13. Seattle has accomplished a lot since, and teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 21-9 SU and 21-10 ATS (67.7%) in their last 31 revenge tries. Of course, 75% of the betting handle at DK backs the host 49ers here, to no one’s surprise. In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors were awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
After the big offensive outburst from SF last week, we also need to consider that QB Brock Purdy is 5-6 SU and 2-9 ATS in the last 11 starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points, and head coach Kyle Shanahan is on 6-7 SU and 2-11 ATS skid when coming off a home win. Not only that, but road teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the SEA-SF series since the start of the 2023 season. Everything points to oddsmakers being right here.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Give me Seattle -1.5 to wrap up the NFC’s #1 seed
Sunday, January 4, 2026
Green Bay at Minnesota (-7.5)
The fact that QB JJ McCarthy has been given the starting nod against the resting starters Packers has bumped the line up to Minnesota -7.5, out of the realm of typically backing late-season home favorites. Obviously, a line going over 7 is a “key number,” but to me, the game situation has me leaning more to Green Bay than any other number analysis. As it is, Green Bay’s head coach Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive 18-5-1 ATS record as an underdog of +3 or more since 2019. Plus, Minnesota is 23-13 SU but only 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite.
The Vikings’ offensive trouble this season also has to weigh in, since, in NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 27-34 SU and 22-39 ATS (36.1%). Last week’s sloppy win against Detroit also has to weigh in since NFL teams coming off a game with a +6 turnover differential or better have naturally been bad betting options the next week, going 6-8 SU and 4-9-1 ATS (30.8%) in their last 14 tries.
However, perhaps more than all that, in the resting starters article I did earlier this week, we found out that since 2011, underdogs in the games where teams are resting starters are on a 26-14 ATS run (65%). Even with QB Clayton Tune stepping in for GB on Sunday, I think the Packers will still compete against the fierce rivals, since LaFleur has stressed showing some fight before next week’s playoff game.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Green Bay +7.5 is the play for me
Indianapolis at Houston (-10)
With Indianapolis getting used to playing with QB Philip Rivers, the offense now has to undergo another change, as the team turns to rookie Riley Leonard for the season finale. When we last saw Leonard getting regular reps. He was guiding Notre Dame to the national title game last January as a mostly running QB. Does this take away any shot for the Colts to upset the Texans on Sunday? Well, maybe not, since Indianapolis is 17-22 SU but 26-13 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015.
However, I don’t think the Colts are going to win any type of shootout with Houston. For them to compete, this game is going to have to be played at an Under pace. That’s usually not a problem for the Texans either, since head coach DeMeco Ryans is on a 12-3 Under the total streak as a home favorite, and QB CJ Stroud is 18-11 Under the total in the last 29 games with his team coming off a win.
This series has also been a low-scoring one, with Under the total going 8-1 in the last nine of the series at Houston. The initial season contest between these teams was a 20-16 decision, and that was when the Colts’ offense was rolling with Danny Jones under center. The crazy thing is that Houston is on a remarkable 15-1 Under stretch in rematch games with Indy, one of the most prominent rematch angles we’ve seen all year. Leonard’s style is an Under style as it is, and bettors are picking up on it, with 59% of the handle leaning that way. I concur.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll go Under 38.5 in the Colts-Texans season finale
Kansas City (-5.5) at Las Vegas
After watching the Raiders get overwhelmed by the Giants on Sunday, it has become obvious that they may be the team tanking the worst out of any other in the NFL. Let’s face it, they need a new QB, and, presumably, that is what a top pick in the draft will land them. Do you really expect them to come to play against the Chiefs on Sunday?
Yes, I know that Kansas City has also got nothing to play for and is down to its third-string QB, but the Chiefs did put out a whole-hearted effort this past week, and in all likelihood, this could be the final game with the franchise for some noteworthy KC teams of recent years, including TE Travis Kelce, among others. Besides the Raiders’ offense being inept lately, the Chiefs are still bringing it defensively, allowing over 20 points just five times this season.
As such, in NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 41-23 ATS (64.1%). Head coach Andy Reid’s team will also be backed by a rematch system showing that teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 90-28 SU and 72-46 ATS (61%) in the rematch. There is a small 54% bets majority backing KC here, but since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%).
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I look for KC -5.5 to go out with a win
Baltimore (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
The final game of the 2025-26 NFL regular season is going to be a fierce battle for the AFC North title between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. In my opinion, there might not be a game all season in which home-field advantage meant more, and it doesn’t seem like oddsmakers are accounting much for it, as they have the Ravens installed as 3.5-point road favorites.
Home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 20-13 SU and 18-14-1 ATS (56.3%) record since 2019. Much of it probably stems from what happened last week, when the Ravens rushed for 300+ yards in a win at Green Bay, figuring this team has its magic recipe back. However, QB Lamar Jackson is back in the fold for this week’s game, and to be truthful, the offense has been better without him this season. In fact, since his return from the initial injury he had this season, Baltimore scored just 20.6 PPG, topping out at 28. They reached 30+ without him four times. In the game they played vs. Pittsburgh earlier, the Steelers’ best game of the season in my opinion, they scored 22 in a 5-point loss.
There are a few noteworthy angles here that favor the Steelers. First, head coach Mike Tomlin is on a 34-28 SU and 40-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. Second, QB Aaron Rodgers is 20-6 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010. And third, regarding that 13-6 setback to Cleveland, NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 55-39 SU and 54-39 ATS (58.1%) in the follow-up game. We also know that home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-27-1 SU but 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) dating back to 2017.
I personally feel that Pittsburgh has been the better team all season long, and got Rodgers for moments like this…The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 132-99 SU and 119-101-11 ATS (54.1%). To me, the wrong team may be favored here, and underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in the last 11 of Ravens-Steelers AFC North rivalry at Pittsburgh.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll back Pittsburgh +3.5 on Sunday night vs. Baltimore
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7.5)
Cleveland has put on a spirited effort to close the 2025-26 season, but let’s face it, I’m pretty sure the organization knows they would be better served by losing to Cincinnati on Sunday in terms of draft position. The Browns did their job for the NFL, beating Pittsburgh last week to force a winner-take-all game between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday. They can now relax.
Plus, how is a team that has been held to 17 points or less 11 times this season going to keep up with the Cincy offense that has caught fire? Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 53-150 SU and 80-120 ATS (40%) record since 2015. The Bengals have scored 30+ in four of the last five outings. We know that Cleveland is 5-22 SU and 4-23 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014, and head coach Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-22 SU and 6-21 ATS slide when coming off an outright win. The initial game between these rivals was in Week 1, a 17-16 decision won by the Bengals. You should consider that Cincinnati is on a 12-0 ATS streak in rematch games vs. CLE.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati (-7.5) to roll Cleveland in the finale
Dallas (-3.5) at NY Giants
For as much as it feels like the Giants continue to bring the effort week after week, regardless of their position in the standings, you’d have to think that winning this game and getting to .500 is a big deal for the Cowboys. Rewind back to days before the season when Dallas traded LB Micah Parsons, and how there was a “sky is falling” type of feel to the 2026 Cowboys.
Here, they have a chance to reach a key benchmark and establish something to build on for 2026. As it is, this is a a good spot for them since Dallas is 29-12 SU and 25-16 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, QB Dak Prescott is 34-6 SU and 30-10 ATS in divisional games since 2017, as well as 19-8 SU and 18-9 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016.
One way or another, head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s team has lost its last four ATS. NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 50-24 SU and 40-32-2 ATS (55.6%) run when favored in the next game as well. To no one’s surprise, 69% of the bets for this game are on Dallas. No worries, as since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I love what we’ve seen from QB Jaxson Dart this season, and the future is bright, but since 2015, rookie QBs are just 56-118 SU and 74-95-4 ATS (43.8%) versus divisional opponents.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll back Dallas -3.5 at New York on Sunday
New Orleans at Atlanta (-3.5)
I tried going against the red-hot Saints last week, and it backfired, despite looking like a solid wager for nearly three quarters of the game. Unfortunately, the games are 60 minutes, not 45. Here, head coach Kellen Moore’s team has the chance to win and ride a five-game winning streak (six games ATS) into the offseason. Talk about a lift for a rookie head coach/quarterback combo that has really blossomed of late.
On the other sideline, Atlanta has also won three in a row behind a rejuvenated QB Kirk Cousins, but two of those were in upset fashion. I have never really liked the Falcons in the chalk role, as Atlanta is 60-51 SU but 40-71 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012, and Cousins is 20-12 SU and 9-23 ATS as a home favorite since 2019. Overall, head coach Raheem Morris is on a 15-20 SU and 13-22 ATS slide in home games. Furthermore, system-wise, this is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 24-22 SU and 17-27 ATS (38.6%) dating back to 2015.
If you’ve been following me in the late-season NFL action, you’ve also probably seen a lot of great info on New Orleans’ rematch games. There is plenty for this one. First off, the Saints are on an 18-2 ATS run in road rematch games. They are also 16-1 ATS stretch in revenge games and 9-1 SU and ATS in rematches vs. Atlanta. On top of all that, Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between NO and ATL.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll take the +3.5 points with New Orleans in Atlanta
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
According to Google…”Rams head coach Sean McVay announced that the team will not rest their starters in Week 18 against the Arizona Cardinals, aiming to correct recent poor performances despite being out of the NFC West title race.” To me, it’s big news because the line for this season finale game with Arizona is underpriced by about a TD.
For all of its offensive competency lately, Arizona can’t stop anyone, and I can guarantee you that part of “playing better” has to be on the defensive side of the ball in McVay’s eyes. This game has a chance to be just like the one the team played about a month ago in Arizona, a 45-17 decision. From a trend standpoint, Arizona is 13-23 ATS (36.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020, and LA Rams are 16-8 SU and 17-6 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018, as well as 28-16 ATS (63.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019.
More importantly, several systems indicate the Rams as a strong play. Among my favorites: 1) NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 27-12 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) in the follow-up contest since 2015. 2) Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 90-28 SU and 72-46 ATS (61%) in the rematch. I expect the Rams to go all in here and properly close out what has been a tremendous season.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Give me the Rams -7.5 versus the Cardinals
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-13.5)
Prior to last week’s late collapse versus New Orleans, I would have given Tennessee a great chance to be competitive in this game versus Jacksonville. Now, with all of that momentum lost, I think the Titans could be in for a long day against what has been the league’s best team over the last two months.
Jacksonville has won seven straight games both SU and ATS and is dominating on both sides of the ball. Regardless of where the Jaguars stand in the race for the AFC’s #1 seed, this team is simply on a roll. I expect them to continue that against the 3-13 Titans. During the seven-game streak, JAX is outscoring opponents 32.6-15.6, a margin that would easily cover what looks to be a lofty spread here.
Let’s face it, if you’re mentally fighting laying a number like this here, it’s probably only because the name Jacksonville is attached to it. Otherwise, on a blind resume, you’d probably be fine. According to DK figures, 59% of the handle is behind the Titans. That’s a scary thought.
Of course, regarding Tennessee, not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 53-150 SU and 80-120 ATS (40%) record since 2015. Then, looking back at the 25-3 decision won by the Jags in November, teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 90-28 SU and 72-46 ATS (61%) in the rematch. Take the team names off and analyze this matchup by the blind resume method. You won’t be afraid to lay the 13.5 points.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: I’ll back Jacksonville (-13.5) as the big favorite versus Tennessee
For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
