NFL Week 3 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Whatever can go wrong is going wrong so far for me in my selection of games for my Best Bets in the NFL, as my two-week record stands at 6-12 ATS. What really gets under my skin is that I looked back at the list of games I “crossed off” at the last minute before finalizing my games, and those are 4-1. I guess I shouldn’t be happy that the information I’m using to get to a list is not necessarily the problem. It’s been my finalizing process. I suppose every bettor faces that dilemma regularly, so I’m not alone. I appreciate the continued support and encouragement. With that said, let’s dig into this week’s collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and come up with a week’s worth of winning Best Bets for the NFL games of Week 3.
Sunday, September 21, 2025
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Be honest with yourself on this Colts-Texans game, because in my opinion, it comes down completely to whether or not you think the Colts, and their amazingly unpredictable offensive start, are as good as their 2-0 record, +26 point differential indicates. To me, it doesn’t feel like it, and it is validated in the fact that my power ratings show only a -2.8 point spread projection for this game. Indy has a win over perhaps the worst team in the league and another in what could be best considered a “referee-aided” contest.
Meanwhile, Tennessee won just two games last season but has somehow still started the season with one of the league’s toughest two-game schedules. How does the Colts’ superior PPG differential in the first two games impact the thinking for this one? Well, since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 27-24 SU but 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) in Week 3. Not surprisingly, the money is all over the road favorites in this contest, 71%. It is a divisional tilt, so this system will be in play: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
There are very few trends that ever favor Tennessee nowadays, but they are 21-12 SU and 21-11 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015. Plus, rookie QB Cam Ward is showing some promise and taking good care of the football. That’s two good signs for an up & coming team. Don’t be surprised to see this game play out very competitively.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll take the 4.5 points at home with the Titans
Atlanta at Carolina
I expected more from second-year Falcons’ QB Michael Penix than he has shown us thus far in 2025. When he took the field at the end of last year, I felt like the sky was the limit for him. Now, he seems rushed by the pressure applied to him. The fact that his team is having so much trouble putting the ball in the end zone in the first couple of weeks has to be a concern as they play as a road favorite here in a divisional tilt.
A reminder, Atlanta is 58-47 SU but 38-67 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012. Plus, underdogs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the ATL-CAR divisional rivalry. The Panthers showed some great fight last week in coming back from a huge deficit in nearly upsetting Arizona. That provides them with some nice momentum for getting into the winning column this week: Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 31-27 SU but 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010. This system will also be in play: Winless teams in the NFL are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Let’s go with Carolina +5.5
Cincinnati at Minnesota
I have been wondering all week why the deductions on the QB Joe Burrow injury haven’t been as big as they might have been a year or two ago. Was it because backup Jake Browning has proven himself capable of keeping the team afloat? To me, Burrow is one of the best in the league and capable of controlling a game on his own. This is a much bigger loss than 3.5 points to the Bengals, which is what it seems oddsmakers have settled on.
On the other sideline, the injury to QB JJ McCarthy might be a blessing, not long-term, but short-term to the Vikings, as he was pressing and literally played one good quarter out of eight in the first two games. And that was against the Bears’ defense, mind you. Backup Carson Wentz could prove to be a temporary upgrade. As Minnesota and Cincinnati are set to go at it on Sunday, I think the QB line adjustments play a huge role, and quite frankly, I’m surprised to see 77% of the dollars at DK backing a Burrow-less Bengals’ team.
As such, over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it. Furthermore, when the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). Regarding head-to-head play, home teams are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the CIN-MIN series since 1995. On top of that, Minnesota is 30-17 SU and 31-14 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014. This is going to prove to be a tough spot for the Bengals without their MVP candidate.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3 points with Minnesota at home
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia
When you take people’s best shots every game, it’s commendable to maintain success. That’s what the Eagles are getting right now from opponents, and while it is perhaps a valid concern with what’s happening with their passing game in the first two weeks, the fact is they are still the defending champions, still 2-0, and anytime you can lay less than a TD with them at home, it is certainly worth consideration.
The Rams are a very popular road dog pick for this week, with 72% of the money at DraftKings heading that way. But why? Are they a bit overrated at this point, having beaten two teams that have combined to score less than 15 PPG? I think that could be the case, and as such, this is still a very difficult spot to play into. Remember, when the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%).
Philly is 26-5 overall at home dating back to 2022, and head coach Nick Sirianni boasts a 23-2 SU and 17-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021. The Eagles also own a sterling 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020. Don’t be surprised to see the Eagles look a lot better than they have in the first two weeks, as this figures to be a game that could mean something down the road.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll back the SB champion Eagles (-3.5) at home
Pittsburgh at New England
Turnovers, mental mistakes, and defensive lapses are not something we’ve become accustomed to seeing from head coach Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh teams, but that is what we’re getting in the small two-week sample to start 2025. The Steelers are fortunate to be 1-1 at this point. That said, I also don’t think what we’ve seen from them makes them an ideal road favorite to back. Speaking of that line scenario, a lot of what happens on Sunday will come down to QB Aaron Rodgers. This has not been a good spot historically for him: Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers is 10-13 SU & 6-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021.
From a systematic standpoint, it also doesn’t bode well for guys in his current situation: Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 46-35 SU but 29-51-1 ATS (36.3%). Typically, the Steelers have been a welcome sight for the Patriots lately, as New England is 8-1 SU and 6-1-2 ATS in head-to-head matchups with Pittsburgh since 2013.
Never mind head coach Mike Vrabel’s team’s inauspicious defensive start, since teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 27-16 SU and 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2015. The offense looked explosive last week in turning back Miami, as they went back to relying on RB Rhamondre Stevenson and QB Drake Maye. They look like a live home dog.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll take another home team here with New England +1.5
Houston at Jacksonville
My first road Best Bet of the week is the Texans, another desperate 0-2 team that finds itself in a historically good spot this week. First, teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 31-27 SU but 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010. Second, underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the HOU-JAX AFC South series at Jacksonville since 2018. Overall, head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team has been very good in divisional games lately, winning nine of 12 the last two seasons.
Apparently, bettors at DK are sharing my sentiments of Houston this week, as 61% of the money & 66% of the bets are expecting a bounceback at +1.5. That’s good in this case, as in a rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
On the Jaguars’ side, rookie head coach Liam Coen faces two tough trends for Sunday: 1) Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 148-177-10 ATS (45.5%). 2) In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 112-129-4 ATS (46.5%).
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Let’s back Houston (+1.5) to get a critical win in Jacksonville
New Orleans at Seattle
One of the somewhat pleasant surprises in the first two weeks has been how new Saints’ head coach Kellen Moore has gotten good development from QB Spencer Rattler. To be frank, he looked atrocious and lost at the end of the season last year. It certainly bodes well for the entire New Orleans offense going forward, and it makes them a live underdog in spots where they are completely overlooked. After two games, Rattler has 3 TDs versus 0 INTs and has thrown for 421 yards. It’s also helped RB Alvin Kamara get a step back. At this point, it could actually be argued that they are at least on par with Seattle in terms of offensive capability.
As it is, Moore’s team is 0-2 in two very competitive losses. They certainly don’t look like a team that is not fighting hard. That leads us into two very strong Week 3 angles to consider: 1) Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 31-27 SU but 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010. 2) Winless teams in the NFL are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010. Let’s not forget that for long, this has also been one of the best traveling franchises in the league: New Orleans is 36-23 ATS (61%) in road/neutral games since 2018. On the Seattle analytics side, QB Sam Darnold is just 7-11 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18 starts vs. teams with losing records. I don’t see this one being easy for Seattle.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll take the Saints +7 on Sunday at Seattle
Dallas at Chicago
It should become an annual ritual for NFL bettors in Week 3. After two games, look for the team that has been most dragged through the mud by fans, experts, and oddsmakers alike, and bet that team, regardless of the line. For 2025, that team has to be Chicago, as after melting down in their Monday night opener loss to the Vikings, the Bears were throttled at Detroit. It has become a “sky is falling” scenario. One thing I know about the NFL, however, is that things are usually never as good, nor ever as bad, as they might seem, and that every game is unique to itself.
Not surprisingly, the money at public betting home DraftKings has been all over Dallas for Sunday’s tilt, 77% of the money and 83% of the bets. As such, NFL DK Betting Splits system #1 says that over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
Never mind last Sunday’s ugly defensive loss to the Lions, as that game destroyed Chicago’s defensive numbers, since teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 27-16 SU and 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2015. It’s not like Dallas is very good defensively either, having allowed 30.5 PPG in its 1-1 start. Chicago is 21-12 SU and 21-11 ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2015. Coming off a thrilling win over the Giants, consider that among the key challenges new head coaches (head coach Brian Schottenheimer) face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve gone just 43-68-6 ATS (38.7%) since December 2020.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Let’s go Bears +1.5, who have shifted to home dog since opening as chalk
Kansas City at New York Giants
I’m not sure anyone really expected to see a battle of two 0-2 teams in the prescheduled Week 3 Sunday night contest, but that’s what we get. Sure, most probably could have forecast the Giants for 0-2, but KC? No way. The easy thing to do here would be to simply throw down your stack, go all in, and believe that there’s no way the perennial AFC power Chiefs could lose again. Two things about that: 1) winning in NFL betting is never easy, 2) laying 6 points on the road to an equally desperate team that is usually very feisty in the underdog role in a whole other deal. That’s not to mention that head coach Brian Daboll’s team clearly found something offensively last week, putting up 37 points and 506 yards of offense against the Cowboys. Right now, the G-Men are sixth in total offense and 10th in yards per play, both above the KC offense.
Let’s not forget that winless teams in the NFL are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010. On top of that, the NY Giants are 8-1 ATS in meetings with Kansas City since 1992. Plus, NY Giants QB Russell Wilson boasts a 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012, and veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 125-80 SU and 107-87-11 ATS (55.2%). Check the VSiN Betting Splits pages. This is a heavy public play backing KC in almost every metric. On a Sunday night football game, nonetheless. What could go wrong?
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll take the Giants +6
Detroit at Baltimore
We have seen two completely different Lions teams in the first two weeks of the season. Not surprisingly, the bad version was on the road at Green Bay, the superb version was against the Bears at home, where they have become quite prolific in recent years. This past week’s offensive effort was extraordinary, as QB Jared Goff & Co. put up 52 points and 8.8 yards per play.
That type of effort doesn’t tend to last: NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 25-22-1 SU and 17-29-2 ATS (37%) in their last 48 tries. Plus, they are meeting a Ravens team on MNF that is even better offensively, and teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) since 2015. On top of that, head coach John Harbaugh is on an 8-3 SU and 9-1 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG, and QB Lamar Jackson is 32-9 SU and 27-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018. The Lions have also historically floundered in Baltimore, losing their last four ATS. This is a pretty tough spot, and I would expect Detroit’s new defensive coordinator and scheme to have its hands full.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -4.5 points with the Ravens on MNF
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
