NFL Week 4 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
For as much as my picks were better last week in the NFL than they were in the first couple of weeks, I am still left with a 10-18 ATS record to date on my Best Bets. I’d like to blame it all on bad luck or bad breaks, but I think it actually stems more from my inability to get over certain beliefs or prejudices about specific teams right now. For instance, I think I’ve backed Houston in all three games, assuming the Texans would not flounder as badly as they have to begin the season. I’ve also been wrong on the Chiefs in all three contests, as they’ve done pretty much the opposite of what I’ve thought they would do. I’ll try to stay away from those teams this week as I look to rally back to positive territory. For this week, we added one huge feature to the NFL Analytics Reports: pre-bye-week systems, and you’ll see I’ve leaned on that data for some of my plays. With all that in mind, let’s dig into this week’s entire collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and come up with a week’s worth of winning Best Bets for the NFL games of Week 4.
Thursday, September 25, 2025
Seattle at Arizona
The Thursday night tilt is an intriguing divisional rivalry game between a pair of 2-1 teams in the NFC West. Since the entire division is over .500 and a combined 9-3, it behooves both teams to keep the momentum going. Which team has the real momentum, though? Seattle has won back-to-back games, at Pittsburgh and by 31 last week against New Orleans. Arizona started the season with a pair of one-score wins over New Orleans and Carolina, but is off a key loss to an injury-riddled San Francisco team. Historically, the Seahawks have thrived in this rivalry, as Seattle is on runs of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven overall meetings with ARI and 10-1-1 SU in the last 12 visits to State Farm Stadium.
Although I’m not a huge fan that 76% of the money at DraftKings is on the Seahawks here, we should consider that since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). The fact this game is on TNF also stands to go against Arizona and its struggling offense. First, in the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, TNF home teams have gone 27-22 SU but 16-31-2 ATS (34%) in the last 49. Plus, home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 6-21 SU and 10-17 ATS (37%) in their last 27, scoring just 15.1 PPG. I mentioned last week’s loss at SF. Unfortunately for head coach Jonathan Gannon’s team, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 27-33 SU and 23-36-1 ATS (39%). I see enough analytical info to back the thought that I simply feel Seattle is a better team.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I got Seattle -1.5 on Thursday night
Sunday, September 28, 2025
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Lost in the fact that the Vikings’ win over the Bengals last week featured 58 points, 48 by Minnesota, the underlying key stat was that there were just 523 total yards of offense in the game. For those of you familiar, 9.17 yards per point is a very low number in an NFL game, as it is typically around 14. That said, this week’s game in Dublin between Minnesota and Pittsburgh shouldn’t be considered a potential shootout. In fact, I would lean in the opposite direction.
The Steelers offense has been very ineffective so far behind QB Aaron Rodgers, as despite scoring 24 PPG overall, they are averaging just 4.7 effective yards per play, seventh worst in the league. At the same time, the Vikings allow 4.89 EYPP, seventh best in the league. With backup QB Carson Wentz not really proving anything yet, I don’t really like the offensive chances for either team in this game and think the overseas atmosphere will also lead to a more defensive-oriented contest. Folks at DK seem to agree, with 73% of the handle on the Under 40.5 as of Thursday. When 54% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 74-62 (54.4%).
In general, you’re never in bad shape taking a head coach Mike Tomlin game under, as Pittsburgh is 103-71 Under the total (59.2%) since 2015. I mentioned Rodgers before, but take this system into account: It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to ’06, in the month of September, these guys have gone 47-32-1 Under the total (59.5%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll look for a defensive battle in Dublin, Under 40.5 in MIN-PIT for me
New Orleans at Buffalo
Are we to the point in the season yet where we can clearly deliberate 2-TD differences between teams in the NFL? If so, are these the two teams that would warrant such a big number? Typically, there are only a little over 3.0 games per season that reach this level of disparity. Quite frankly, no, I don’t think these are the teams that warrant the number.
In fact, before last week’s lopsided loss at Seattle, I was actually somewhat impressed with what New Orleans had done in the first two games under new head coach Kellen Moore. Even with the big loss last week, I still show the Saints as being better than four other teams in my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. For the record, I show Buffalo as #15 in the league. That difference doesn’t warrant a 15.5-point favorite.
There is also legit concern about Buffalo’s defense, which is currently allowing 5.86 Effective Yards per Play, 8th worst in the NFL. Recall from last week that New Orleans is 36-24 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2018. Plus, Buffalo’s head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 SU but 2-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022.
If you’re looking for betting systems, which most people are from me, consider these: 1) NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-29 SU but 32-10-2 ATS (76.2%) in their last 44 tries. 2) NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-78 SU but 60-31 ATS (65.9%) as dogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll take New Orleans to cover the big number (+15.5) in Buffalo
Cleveland at Detroit
Detroit seems to have regained its swagger, coming up with back-to-back impressive wins against the Bears and Ravens following the season-opening loss at Green Bay. There were some serious questions after that opener, but everything seems restored now. With that in mind, I was stunned to see them open as just 8.5-point home favorites over Cleveland on Sunday. My power rating says the lien should be -13.8. Since then, the actual number has moved to -10.5, but even still, I don’t think I’ve seen such a big number miss in a long time.
Consider the current strengths of these teams. Detroit has put up 90 points in the last two games. Cleveland has put up 43 in three games. The Lions have also been incredibly impressive offensively in recent years at home, averaging 33.1 PPG in their last 33. If they get anywhere close to 30, how does Cleveland compete here?
We also have a couple of trends regarding the Browns recently and their reaction to success: Cleveland is 5-19 SU and 4-20 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014, and head coach Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-19 SU and 6-18 ATS slide when coming off an outright win. That win was heavily influenced by Green Bay’s sloppiness (14 penalties) and a very lackluster offensive plan. I would expect neither from head coach Dan Campbell’s squad on Sunday.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10.5 points with Detroit at home
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants
I totally spaced last week in analyzing the Chiefs-Giants game by simply glossing over one of the most key angles in recent years that has made me money. That being the Under pace at which the Giants have played consistently as home underdogs. This hasn’t been a franchise that has tried to outscore people in that role. They have tried to shorten games and win defensively. There wound up being only 31 points scored in that contest.
Take a look at the trends now: NY Giants are 57-29 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020, 25-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020, and head coach Brian Daboll is on a 21-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog. For this particular matchup, we have an opponent that is playing very well defensively as well, and is prone to Under play in general too: LA Chargers are 64-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013, and 14-3 Under the total when playing on normal rest (7 days).
Plus, the betting public at DK is actually supporting the Over at an 82% rate as of Thursday. In which case, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). Add to that this DK betting system, call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. None of this analytic stuff even takes into account the fact that the Giants just switched QBs to a rookie in Jaxson Dart, a guy who has yet to throw a pass in the league. I can assure you that the New York game plan will be conservative.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll go Under 43.5 in Chargers-Giants
Jacksonville at San Francisco
For as much as I will say that San Francisco’s 3-0 start has been anything but dominant, I will note how difficult of a spot this will probably end up being for Jacksonville. Beyond anything else, the Jaguars have not played well versus the 49ers, as San Francisco is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in head-to-head meetings with Jacksonville since 2005. In addition, Jacksonville is 9-49 SU and 15-42 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011, and on a horrific 5-41 SU and 13-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011.
Coming off the key 17-10 victory over Houston, head coach Liam Cohen faces this challenging rookie head coach system: Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse since December 2020, going 43-69-6 ATS (38.4%). It would seem that the bettors at DraftKings share some of my sentiment regarding the actual strength of the 49ers right now, as 66% of the handle for this game is on Jacksonville +3.5. No worries there, since when the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%).
This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons. San Francisco’s effective play-play numbers are better on both sides of the ball right now, even with QB Brock Purdy missing the last two games. I don’t think this line does that justice. Purdy or not this week, I think head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team takes it.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll go San Francisco -3.5 at home
Green Bay at Dallas
I’m not exactly sure what the Packers were doing this past Sunday, but whatever it was, they looked nothing like the team that handled Detroit and Washington easily in the first two weeks of the season. Perhaps it could be a coachable moment for head coach Matt LaFleur, as they look to bounce back at a place they have thrived: Green Bay has owned Jerry’s World, going 5-0 SU and ATS in visits to Dallas since 2013.
They also continue to own the league’s best effective yards per play defense, allowing just 3.89 YPP. That is going to prove a major challenge to overcome for the Cowboys, particularly without their top weapon, WR CeeDee Lamb, in the lineup. As it is, Dallas QB Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29 SU and 16-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016, and is on a 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog. That’s not to mention how big a defensive edge Lafleur’s team owns in this game. In that same Effective YPP allowed stat I mentioned earlier, Dallas is allowing 6.62 YPP, nearly 3 yards per play more!
The Packers could fall into a “public play” role with 77% of bets on them as of Thursday, but no worries, since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). If it’s Sunday night angles you’re considering, home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-22 SU and 14-21-1 ATS (40%) in their last 36, and the Cowboys just lost at Chicago. Plus, Green Bay has been spectacular in primetime games lately, 19-8 SU and 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27. Last and certainly not least, with the Pack going on a bye next week, this system says a win is nearly automatic: Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 78-6 SU and 56-26-2 ATS since 2002, 68.3%, +27.4 Units).
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll trust the mountains of data saying Green Bay (-7) wins handily
Monday, September 29, 2025
New York Jets at Miami
I mentioned earlier that the state of teams right now after three weeks should play a big part in how their game line for this week is established. At this point, it’s questionable to consider why Miami would be favored over anyone else. In fact, my Effective Strength Ratings show the Dolphins as the #30 of 32 teams. Their opponent for this week, the Jets, aren’t much better at #26, but still better.
It would seem that QB Justin Fields should return for this MNF tilt as both teams look for their first wins of the season. That could be big, as in the season opener, he was sharp and dynamic against Pittsburgh. I don’t think those two words have been used about Miami yet. In which case, it is strange to see 58% of the public back the ‘Fins, or perhaps they are simply fading the Jets. Either way, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
Speaking on the AFC East rivalry aspect, MNF home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 16-17 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in their last 33 tries. There’s also a little Streak Betting System that says NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 62-38 SU but 40-56-4 ATS (41.7%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013. Miami is not worth the money it takes to lay points.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Jets +3
Cincinnati at Denver
Even in the two weeks in which QB Joe Burrow did play for the Bengals, the offense was not sharp at all, and as predicted by me last week, the loss of a usual stud like him would hurt the team badly. It did, as the team gained just 171 yards on offense and turned the ball over five times in a 48-10 loss at Minnesota.
That blowout defeat could have a hangover effect according to this system: NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-17 SU and 3-18 ATS (14.3%) in their last 21 tries. The Burrow injury and horrible loss aside, this Cincy team is 2-1 and still in first place in the AFC North.
As such, the fact that 68% of the bets as of Thursday were backing the 1-2 Broncos puts this system in play: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with less season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off. The Broncos have the lesser record because of last Sunday’s tough 23-20 loss at the Chargers. However, Denver’s head coach Sean Payton is 17-10 SU and 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 games when coming off an outright road loss. Won/lost records have also mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 43-36 SU but just 30-47-2 ATS (39%) in the last 79 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Let’s go with Denver -7.5 to take care of business
For more NFL Week 4 best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
