NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Coming off my first winning week of the season, I should feel a lot better about my NFL best bets, but starting 4-1 and winding up 5-4 isn’t exactly what I’m looking to achieve. Had some tough breaks again, but I also caught some as well. That’s how it goes for NFL, I guess. This Week 5 board is a little lighter with four teams on byes as we start that process, which will go all the way through the first week of December. The record now stands at 15-22 ATS (40.5%) for the season, which would undoubtedly be my worst ever if it continues. At least I have some limited positive momentum going. Without further ado, let’s dig into this week’s entire collection of analytical data, betting systems, and strength ratings featured on VSiN and come up with a week’s worth of winning best bets for the NFL games of Week 5.
Thursday, October 2, 2025
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams
It seems as if bettors and oddsmakers alike aren’t giving the 49ers much of a shot in this one, minus a few of their key offensive players. In fact, as of Thursday morning, 73% of the betting handle was behind the Rams to easily take care of their fierce divisional rival. We know from DK betting splits systems that it is historically a bad situation on two fronts: 1) Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it. 2) In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. The rivalry aspect of this game is something that can’t be ignored, as underdogs are 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS in the 49ers-Rams rivalry since 2019. Then, of course, there are the typical Thursday night angles that need to be considered. Remember, in the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, TNF home teams have gone 27-23 SU but 16-32-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 50. In addition, a notable trend has emerged over the last four seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the previous Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 20-21 SU and 26-14-1 ATS (65%) record. It’s hard to see San Francisco rolling over on this one, particularly after not looking great this past Sunday.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take the +8.5 with the San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 5, 2025
Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Cleveland has made the choice to go with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel for their immediate future. Unlike the Giants with Jaxson Dart, I don’t have much enthusiasm for this move, as Gabriel hasn’t really shown any readiness for the promotion leading up to this point. I think he is being thrown into a fire that very few quarterbacks would be able to escape successfully from. As it is, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 138-126 ATS (52.3%) in home games but just 121-142 ATS (46%) in road/neutral games. Plus, in their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 54-116 SU and 76-91-2 ATS (45.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
One of the other reasons this becomes a tougher spot for the Browns and Gabriel is that this game is being played in London, and the Vikings will be in Europe for their second straight game. That is a massive travel edge. They have typically fared well in non-conference action, going 31-18 SU and 32-15 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014. Of course, after this game, Minnesota also heads into its bye week, a huge edge in two systematic regards: 1) Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since 2009) and 2) Play any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008). Not only that, but Minnesota is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC teams, and 13-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall. If all those analytics weren’t enough, for some reason, 87% of the handle at DraftKings is getting behind Cleveland. Why?
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Give me Minnesota -4.5 in London on Sunday morning
Las Vegas at Indianapolis
The jury is still out on what we can expect from Indianapolis this season. At 3-1 currently, the Colts boast wins over Miami, Tennessee, and Denver, that last one being heavily aided by officiating. They are being priced here as if they are one of the league’s top teams. In fact, if you were to go back to Week 1, the line for this week’s game versus Las Vegas would be about Indy -3. Are the Colts really that much better than they were a few weeks ago? Are the Raiders really that much worse? No, I would actually say that both of these teams are closer to 2-2 than their actual records indicate. In which case, a -7 point line seems a bit absurd.
Las Vegas has played a noticeably tougher four games. One of the key things we will need from the Raiders this week to really compete in this game is QB Geno Smith to play better. He has suffered from interceptions and pressure so far, but last week, for the first time, he was not sacked, after being sacked 12 times in the first three games. It is typically around this time when veteran QBs settle in with their new teams, going 44-36 SU and 42-35-3 ATS (54.5%) in the month of October since 2009. They also have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 86-71 SU and 85-70-2 ATS (54.8%). Speaking of that type of matchup, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-64 SU but 52-32-2 ATS (61.9%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003. If you need more, consider that road teams are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Raiders-Colts series since 2010. I also like what Las Vegas finally did last week with RB Ashton Jeanty and expect this one to be closer than the guys behind the counter do.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with Las Vegas +7 in Indianapolis
Denver at Philadelphia
At the risk of impinging on my newly developed Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, which are showing that the Eagles are one of the worst teams in the league currently, I have to wonder how much “winning ugly” does for a team’s psyche. And what happens when that team finally does play up to its billing? Could that happen this week as the defending Super Bowl Champion gets challenged by an upstart Broncos team in a game in which the line seems to be indicating that the Eagles aren’t really an elite team anymore? This system indicates it’s possible: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-14 SU and 50-24-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
My power ratings, which I haven’t moved significantly on Philly in the four weeks due to continued winning, also indicate that they should be a -7.5-point favorite, four points better than the actual line. Philadelphia is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020, and head coach Nick Sirianni boasts a 24-2 SU and 18-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021. On top of that, favorites are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the DEN-PHI non-conference series since 1998. This is a difficult spot for Denver after an easy MNF win.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: I’m good with laying the -3.5 with the still undefeated Eagles
Houston at Baltimore
Are we reaching a desperation point with Baltimore sitting at 1-3? Is the situation worsened by the absence of QB Lamar Jackson? The answer to both questions is yes, but I would also indicate that I believe those behind the counter have gone way too far in their line adjustment when it was announced that Jackson would be out. In my opinion, this line has moved about 9 points, when I believe it should be closer to 6. Backup Cooper Rush is an experienced QB, known for performing in his role. Plus, Houston has been badly underachieving in the first four weeks to the point where most experts are under the belief that there is something wrong with QB CJ Stroud.
Now, after a single win over the league’s worst team, the Texans are all of a sudden a road favorite versus an opponent that has owned them recently: Baltimore is on surges of 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the series with Houston (average margin of victory of 21.2 points in those six victories). In my opinion, this line is a great motivator for a team that still has my #1 Effective Play-by-Play Rating, and Baltimore is 21-6 ATS as an underdog since 2018. Getting back to that 26-0 shutout of Tennessee last week for Houston, you need to consider that teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-21 SU and 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in their last 36 games following up that extremely good defensive performance. I expect a better use of RB Derrick Henry to counter the Jackson loss, and I give the Ravens a great shot at an “upset”.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll back Baltimore +1.5 at home to Houston
Tennessee at Arizona
Sometimes my best bets rely 100% on the systematic data that is uncovered for readers in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports each week. I consider myself a major situational bettor for the NFL, and rarely do I simply rely on strength ratings to make plays. So much of what happens in this league is a result of what happened in the last game or two, and what lies next. With that in mind, I have to turn to two systems that are showing this week that will be hard to stomach, but they have won at an amazing rate in recent years. First, coming off the 26-0 loss in Houston, note that teams like Tennessee that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 28-36 SU but 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%) since 2012.
Also, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus. I also wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Titans in that Arizona hasn’t really played well in any of its four games to date and would be more than ecstatic to simply get out of Sunday with one in the win column.
The point spread tends to be a great equalizer in these situations. If you’re worried about rookie QB Cam Ward and his slow growth so far, remember that since 2022, rookie QBs are 20-16 SU and 21-12-3 ATS (63.6%) versus non-conference foes. Finally, take a look at the DK Betting Splits for this contest…handle 68% on Titans, bets 54% on Cardinals. Knowing DK is a very public book, the fact that way more bets are on Arizona, and more money is on Tennessee makes this feel like more of the sharp $ is on the visitors here. I don’t blame you for not tailing me, but I’m going with the Titans.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Tennessee +7.5 covers the big road number in Arizona
Detroit at Cincinnati
Have we gone too far with the lines this time? Last week, at this point, I was crying foul in that Detroit was only an 8.5-point opening line favorite over Cleveland. That line eventually wound up being 10.5, but I still screamed that it was too low. The Lions ultimately won the game comfortably, 34-10. Now, oddsmakers have completely abandoned the 2-2 Bengals after two very rough outings and have placed the Lions as double-digit road favorites in Cincinnati.
There are a few key reasons why we will see a significantly different Bengals team this week. First and foremost, this game is at home, where they have their only ATS win of the year, a 31-27 decision over Jacksonville. They are 0-3 ATS on the road. Second, the same situation that applied to the Titans is on the Bengals this week following their ugly effort at Denver on MNF: NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus. Third, Cincinnati is on a 26-12 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016 and 25-17 ATS (59.5%) as an underdog since 2020, plus head coach Zac Taylor is on a 13-9 SU and 16-6 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%. The betting public has fallen in love with the Lions here, with 88% of the handle and bets on them. That is a scary disparity to me. Burrow or not, hosting the Browns and playing at Cincinnati are two very different challenges.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati +10.5 to at least put a scare in Detroit
New England at Buffalo
Whenever we’re faced with lines over a TD in the NFL, there has to be some sort of extra motivation for the better team to want to cover that bigger number. Do we have that in this New England-Buffalo contest for Sunday night? I believe so, and I think it all stems from the Bills needing to quash a potential uprising by an upstart Patriots team. New England is off a 42-13 rout win over Carolina, one that could be a big confidence booster. However, their two wins are against the Panthers and Dolphins, two of the worst five teams in the league to start the season.
At the same time, the Bills are undefeated at 4-0 while scoring 33.3 PPG behind the amazing QB Josh Allen. Typically, when we see these big lien games, there are always numerous analytical arguments for taking the underdog. In this case, the biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late, going 17-3 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%) in their last 20 tries. In addition, home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 20-12 SU and 18-13-1 ATS (58.1%) record since 2019. If that weren’t enough, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a win are on a current 28-9 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) surge.
Regarding the Patriots, New England has covered all four meetings with AFC East rival Buffalo in the last two seasons. There is some curious money action on this game too, with 86% of the handle on the visiting Patriots, perhaps because they are 4-0 ATS versus the Bills over the last two seasons, with two close losses in Orchard Park? Do we really see that happening again? Remember, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%), and when the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). I’ll fade the public underdog here and actually back the big favorite.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: It’s Buffalo -8.5 on Sunday night for me
Monday, October 6, 2025
Kansas City at Jacksonville
For as much as it feels like Kansas City is “back,” I don’t like this spot on the road against an improving Jacksonville team and feel like I would be getting lured into a trap with about 70% of all the other bettors at DK this week. Therefore, I will avoid the line and take a closer look at the total, which has two very strong historical angles backing it that I often turn to.
The first one is the Monday night home underdog angle: NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 22-7-2 (75.9%) in the last 31 opportunities, with games producing just 39.2 PPG. This average gives us over a TD cushion. Second, with 75% of the handle at DraftKings on the Over as of this writing, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. If you look back at the recent history of the series between these teams, you will also find that Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the KC-JAX series, including the most recent one in 2023, which produced just 26 points. I don’t think either of these teams wants a shootout.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s wrap up the week with an Under 46.5 on MNF
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
